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Images from 2014-15 events are found here in high resolution; or on AWAC's Facebook page.

CONTENTS

Tues 23 Sep 2014: Reza Marashi, research director of the National Iranian American Council; prolific writer of opinion editorials; former State Dept officer. Video of key points, 1': [mp4] [YouTube]

Tues 14 Oct 2014: PJ Crowley, Professor of Strategy and former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs, with prior experience in two administrations at the National Security Council. Video of key points, 1': [mp4] [YouTube]

Tues 9 Dec 2014: Bret Stephens, Pulitzer prize-winning journalist for the Wall Street Journal.  Video of key points, 3' [mp4] [YouTube]

Tues 27 Jan 2015: Valerie Plame Wilson, "Weapons of Mass of Destruction….an update." Formerly senior covert officer at the CIA, and a principal American responsible for counter proliferation before 9/11, she was central to the discovery and elimination of an off-the-shelf nuclear weapons smuggling scheme organized by Pakistan.

Tues 24 Feb 2015: US Ambassador-at-large Clint Williamson, responsible for war crimes issues and detainees; recent former Lead Prosecutor for the European Union Special Investigative Task Force on Kosovo.

7 April 2015: Alexander Motsyk, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, "Crisis in the Ukraine: What it Means for the West." [Additional event]

Wednesday 19 April 2015: William Moomaw, "The Future of Energy Worldwide--- Affecting the Economy, National Security and the Environment," professor emeritus of Tufts University and former Co-Lead Author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, one of two major reports that provoked changes in policy across many nations. Bill graduated from Lanier High School in Montgomery in 1955.

26 May 2015 (new date): Senior Air War College Instructors, "Report to Alabama" on their recent trips to areas of interest around the globe as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.

NOTES ON SPEAKERS

Tues 23 Sep 2014: Reza Marashi

Video of key points, 1': [mp4] [YouTube]

Our first speaker, on 23 Sep. 2014
NIAC Research Director Reza Marashi

Summary of speech to AWAC, 23 Sep. 2014
His bio and list of articles at NIAC | His list of interviews and other TV appearances on Youtube

Currently Research Director for NIAC, the National Iranian American Council
Served four years in U.S. State Department in the Office of Iranian Affairs
Was analyst for INSS, the Institute for National Strategic Studies
Frequently consulted by Western governments on Iran-related matters
Appears as guest contributor to CNN, BBC, TIME Magazine, New York Times, etc.

Introduction

Gen. Cleveland recommended the new web site and announced the new sound system under trial. Prof. Grant Hammond is the new President-elect, and has presented ideas for outreach, such as a book club and the Great Decisions program.  Jim Nathan then commended Gen. Cleveland for his competence and energy. Had planned for Sally Colby to speak but has been ill and unable to come. Jim asked President of national board for the best speaker and invited Marashi. Marashi has already spoken twice today to large audiences (at Maxwell AFB).

Prepared remarks, 3 main points

Iran too complex to explain more than 3 points.
Used to work for the US government and may work again for US.

1. Iran has politics

- remember that; 24 hours news cycles tend to compress shades of gray into black and white. Must understand adversary carefully, to make better policy. A range of political views there, color scale ranges from light gray to pitch black.  Since the election of June 2013 (even though not free or fair) candidates had to be given permission to run -- but voters had high turnout for a pragmatist or least a non-belligerent speaker.  Former president Ahmadinejad had followers too but tide has shifted to less hard line leaders.  Nobody has more tools than US but difficulty is to figure out the right tool at any time.  US national security policymaking is better if we understand that Iran has politics.

2. Nuclear negotiations of Iran and 7 countries (led by US) actually making progress,

as US & Iran ran out of options for the expression of adversary relations short of war.  Difficult for politicians on either side to take a step back and face problems together.  (Like two cars in a James Dean movie, racing towards cliff with neither side ready to hit the brakes.)

3.  US has built leverage from sanctions, must decide when both sides ready to play their bargaining chips.

When one side escalates, other sides does so.  Iranians carrying out terrorism in Middle East, and advanced their nuclear program, despite sanctions.  No guarantee that negotiations will be responsible - and depends not on diplomats so much as on political will to let them.  US has taken off numerous restrictions on negotiations and Iranians have done same.    Troubling aspects of Iranian nuclear program were frozen in place, while US provided sanctions relief.  Both steps build trust but are easily reversible.  Both sides have fulfilled commitment. Politicians have to be willing to risk explaining a deal to their own constituencies.
Eg today Barack Obama has responsibility to explain the bombing of ISIS to the American people.  Negotiations are worth supporting - and we lose nothing by attempting to negotiate; the range of options do not change, just war or diplomacy.  Any other discussion from a leader is kicking the can down the road, cowardly option. Any war ends in negotiation, everything in war is just for leverage.
Eg. W. Bush before leaving office agreed with Iran that US would withdraw all combat troops out of Iraq, Obama as candidate agreed, but in office wanted to extend this.  Negotiating with Iraqi government of own creation after 8 years - agreed to extend but Iraqis would not grant immunity, which was their way of saying thanks but no thanks.  In poker the best hand doesn't always win; we have chips but cashing them for concrete verifiable concessions by Iran is worth considering.  Whether you think Iraq war was worth it is a conversation we needed to have -- unlike Afghan war which was clearly needed in some form after 9/11. Need to discuss policy and timing, yet we are disengaged from that conversation, leaving leaders to decide.

Question time

Need to drop cold war perceptions?

US has interests defined by every president since at least Carter.  Political stability to ensure access to resources including energy; plus values such as democracy and human rights that we try to project abroad.  Not easy in real world when forced to choose between interests and values - and like most countries we prioritize our interests over our values.  I believe we should lean more often towards our values - can walk and chew gum at same time.  Our politicians though [owingto gridlock in DC) do not have the position we would like to lead.

Recent US attacks left Iran out of the loop; will that evolve into a success or a disaster?

ISIS demonstrates it is possible for US-Iran interests overlap - but not possible to cooperate openly. Nov. 24 is self-imposed deadline for nuclear talks but there is scope for covert communication and both sides are avoiding war with each other.  Can deconflict strikes, and share intelligence.  Both US and Iran have cachet with tribal officials in Iraq - but if just one goes to tribes, they will be played off.  If go together will have more impact.

Surrogates of Iran (Syrians, Hamas, Hezballah)?

End goal of Iran - is it regional dominance?  Yes, negotiations do not include Iranian support of Terrorist groups - limited to nuclear issues, wise because keeps it simplified.  Other issues will not force us to war in medium term.  Did not hear a peep from Iran during Gaza conflict recently.  No shortage of weapons there but Iranian behavior sent a message and US did the same, notifying Iranians of strikes against ISIS to avoid hitting Iranians and causing war.  Hawks in DC and in Iran cannot be boxed in together for long, so Nov 24 good deadline.
Root cause of relations is not 1979 but is postwar US setting rules of game.  Some countries have declined to play by rules, several in Middle East.  Saddam, Ghadaffi and Assad all have been deposed or opposed, so Iran can see what has happened.  Ned to figure out if flexibility on either side, working relationship.  But like working with Russia before Ukrainian difficulty.
So long as US keeps public statements moderate, gives leverage over Iran

Iranian interests in Iraq and Syria?

We overturned a security border in Middle East, and regional powers trying to fill vacuum.  New demographics reality in Iraq but Iranians have overplayed hand in Iraq, partly causing rise of ISIS, did not force Maliki government to be more inclusive - now paying for mistakes, having to reassure other countries in Middle East and try to de-escalate tension - others were not buying that willingness till ISIS crisis but now regional solutions possible.  Syria not as a friend but a business partner, a way to project powers vs Israel same as Lebanon, not primarily against US.  Backing Assad regime which has been mercilessly slaughtering own people.  Tremendous cost to Iran because tends to transcend religious boundaries.  Admadinejad was rated 2nd most popular leader in Arab world after Turkish leader - but Iran has now lost support because of support for Assad.  They want internationally verified elections for anyone but Assad.  Ie a Lebanese solution which prevented war for years.  No way to force people to stop killing one another in Syria, and they have not decided to do so yet.

US and Iran?

Current president of Iran has built the most inclusive coalition since 1979.  Previous 2005-13 administration mismanaged so badly that nobody wants to continue that -- has united behind current president.  For past year, has been favorable but alignments can shift, and Parliamentary elections in a year and a half.  If no nuclear deal, will have little argument to make for the current admin.  On US end, Obama has made this a signature foreign policy achievement of second term.  Does not rule by fiat but with Congress.  Why problematic? Unlike domestic issues, we will have to give sanctions waivers every 6 months and then will have to lift sanctions by law.  This weakens our negotiating position because must show can deliver.  30 Senators signed letter disapproving details of deal leaked to NY Times - but a year ago would have been far more.

Tues 14 Oct 2014: PJ Crowley, Professor of Strategy and former officer at NSC and DOD | Video of key points

Key points of PJ Corley's speech to AWAC, on YouTube,
1'8"

PJ Crowley, 3' on Fox News, about Libyan regime change;
and then about comments on treatment of
Bradley Manning that led to his resignation.

 

Press release from Prof. James Nathan:

"Philip J. (P.J.) Crowley holds the Omar Bradley Chair of Strategic Leadership at Dickinson College, the Penn State Dickinson School of Law and School of International Affairs, and the Army War College.
     P.J. is also a fellow at the Institute for Public Diplomacy and Global Communication within the School of Media and Public Affairs at The George Washington University.
    Crowley appears frequently as a national security commentator on global networks, especially the BBC. He is also a regular columnist for The Daily Beast.
 Crowley served as the Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs in 2009 until March 2011.
     At a seminar at MIT, Crowley criticized the Pentagon for the harsh incarceration of Chelsea (formerly Bradley) Manning, a U.S. soldier who provided WikiLeaks with 700,000 classified diplomatic cables. Crowley’s take on Manning’s solitary treatment was “counterproductive and stupid." When asked "Are you on the record?" by British journalist Philippa Thomas, PJ Crowley replied, "Sure."
With that, Crowley did what few in high profile public service ever do. It was a matter of principle. He was asked a direct question. He gave an honest answer, at odds with the administration he served. And, he resigned within the week.
     Before joining the Obama administration, P.J. was a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, with a particular focus on homeland security in the aftermath of 9/11.
     During the Clinton administration, P.J. was Special Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council. Crowley also served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs.
     Crowley was a veteran of Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, and the Kosovo conflict, where he worked for Javier Solana, the Secretary General of NATO, in support of the campaign.
     PJ’s father was an aviator in WW2, and held for a time as a German POW. He is a frequent visitor to Air University and Alabama’s Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail."

Brief biography:

During the Clinton administration, P.J. Crowley was Special Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council. Previously, he served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs. During the Kosovo conflict, Crowley worked as Air Force colonel at NATO during the Balkan Wars.  In 2008, while serving as the State Department’s spokesman, Crowley was  asked about the harsh conditions of detention of Wikileaks suspect Private First Class Bradley.  Crowley replied that Manning’s harsh treatment was "ridiculous and counterproductive and stupid.” Crowley made the point that holding Private Manning naked in 23 foot square cell, alone, with the lights on, in solitary confinement  for over a year, had damaged America's standing in the world. Crowley resigned, explaining: ”I'm a believer in … like strategic narratives… [T]he US, [is’ an exceptional country.., [and] has to be seen as practicing what we preach.”  Crowley currently holds a senior academic position at George Washington University.

Prepared remarks:

Came to Montgomery first to SOS as Captain, returned at higher rank -- then returned recently to Air U after 18 years.
Time of uncertainty, familiar adversaries are creating havoc, upstarts showing surprising skill; not just in college football!
Major policy challenges at home and abroad; Benghazi, Egypt coup, Ukraine, Gaza, Iraqi state, Snowden; global public health concerns; Iran negotiations.
The world has always been complex but now dynamic with so many potentials - compare at least with 1990s.
Policy implications for rest of Obama administration and 2016 campaign.
Cannot disconnect ourselves from world; boundary between domestic and foreign has disappeared. Cyber threat robs our economy of billions.
Crisis of Middle East and West Africa; president right to build coalitions -- but cannot be solved without effective action by the US.
Role of insurgents able to challenge US in every element of society; power is harder to deploy.

Ikenberry talks of US at center of communications - but Nye writes of difficulty of using power. Kissinger writes of modern tech causing complex battle between power and legitimacy.

Power becoming more diffuse, challenging to sustain legitimacy - including actors like WikiLeaks.
Global skepticism regarding use of force, and China and Russia are withholding imprimatur of UNSC resolutions from US coalition actions.
US has sophisticated strategy regarding Syria, not rushing into complex conflict -- and avoiding actions that exacerbate rather than mitigating threat to US homeland.

US troubles of Syria are mostly with narrative rather than policy itself. Did remove chemical weapons, though suffering blow to credibility when failing to follow through on red line with air power.

JFK had time in missile crisis to weigh options, but today social media would not give so much time.  Technology makes world more transparent; strategies for policymaking and public diplomacy must change in integrated global environment.  Plausible deniability is rapidly becoming obsolete.

E.g. wedding party in Afghan becomes front page news when attacked. Bin Laden raid and drone operations that we consider secret, are visible to many people abroad.

Operations secret because neither government is willing or able to explain them to own populations.
We have relied on hard power too much rather than smart power.
US can attract best and brightest from world to come here to study or work. We are admired for what we are -- but world does not understand how our narrative matches our actions.  Closing gap is challenge of diplomacy in C20th.

Question Time:

Lack of leadership from present administration?

Why do we care about Syria and how much will it cost? Needs strategy, prudence and patience.  Instinct to do something is too easily generated.

US better off than with Middle East 5 years ago?

Yes - but not compared to 3 years ago.
Right to put main focus on locals rather than on us. We have redefined what it means to go to war (drones, not boots on ground).  Iraq syndrome could be more impactful than VN syndrome. To beat IS must potentially use US forces on ground at least to help allies in region govern.

How will Afghan and Putin affect our future policies?

Not a cold war -- but President acknowledged we face a competition of ideas again. Social media and al Jazeera world means public opinion is more a player; alliances vitally important as we saw with Ukraine, but hard to maintain. No reason to think Russia more successful in long run than was old Soviet Union.  Speeches that JFK and RWR gave in Berlin were some of the best American rhetoric.

Develop more democratic governments in Middle East? - [merely an] internet meme.  [Takes much more.]

Lack of leadership; might take 100 years to build strong institutions.  Must take long view- e.g. S. Korea now a leading economy, and unlike 1950s is not poorer than North.
Willing to redefine political narrative about strength of nation.  Nye, hard power costs increasingly more.
UN as global trade organization that tries to handle crises.
We tried bait and switch over Libya, and will not see action for a while. In other areas reset with Russia worked when geared with Russian foreign policy controlled by Medvedev -- but not when controlled by Putin.

UN is as effective as its key members want it to be. There exists no substitute for the UN.

US not always a very good model for a democratic political system for other nations.  However, in 2009 Sec. Clinton landed in Kenya and met with leaders there who hated each other - pointed out she was working for the guy who beat her in election.  Churchill said US did the right thing -- after exhausting every other alternative.  Hard to lecture others about overcoming divisions when we have to do so ourselves.
Cokie Roberts was asked if Congress was as bad as it has ever been - she noted not like civil war or members of Congress shooting each other.  We [a polarized electorate]have told Congress that compromise is a dirty word.  Claire McCaskill of 9% congress rating, "that high?"

Russian threat to Estonia and Latvia?

Putin demanding that those who did not serve in USSR. ... will NATO continue ... does Monroe doctrine still exist? Do we still believe in spheres of influence?
Relationship with Russia and China is theirs to define but we need to ensure Russia pay a significant cost for what is done in violation of international norms (Crimea) ruble has declined, flight of capital out of Russian harbors.  But Putin has a high pain threshold.
Limits of western response to what Russia has done in Crimea is energy - significant energy for Europe. Will have energy leverage of our own in foreign policy. Will fail in ten years if Europe is still reliant on Russia; will take ten years to diversify resources.  Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) being reengineered for export to Europe, a strategic response to what Putin has done.

What if Putin challenges Baltic states?

President reassured Baltics that NATO is still a viable working institution.  Scowcroft used to talk about a new NATO but central Europeans joined the old NATO. Russians argued a mistake for NATO to expand eastwards - but Poland is a strong member of NATO. Putin will support linguistic Russians but he will not challenge NATO directly.

Critical Hillary and Panetta of Obama's Syrian policy?

Obama rightly cautious of Syria - said recently we don't have a Syria policy and not a mistake -- was trying to slow down a march to military action, and wanted change of leadership in Baghdad before stepped in.
Greatest mistake [of Obama] was setting red line in Syria [over chemical weapons] yet failed to defend it.  Surprised when House of Commons voted down British participation in the operation.  Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta, General Petraeus recommended more vigorous support for Syrian opposition but President hesitated because flow of weapons has flowed on to other conflicts.
However Syrian opposition needs support with boots on ground to sufficiently degrade IS and retake territory.

Between Russia and China, testing US ability to respond in South China Sea or Crimea?

Ukraine - don’t overate Russian ability, he can parry but not thrust - a weak power dependent on one commodity, oil, that will be reduced over time.  Putin is playing a weak hand of cards fairly well.
China - pivot to Asia was oversold but our position in Asia is strong, we are welcomed by every country except China.  China has navigational and border issues. Strengthening international institutions - and Hillary Clinton at meeting challenged -- and China said to neighbors we are large country and you are very small countries. President travelled well around Asia and our position is advantageous.
Enjoyed editorial in Montgomery paper last week.

What is Turkey trying to do in Syria?

We underestimate impact of politics and history in countries where we have had some impact.  Turkey has at times been prickly ally. Erdogan has been. Turkey argues first must deal with Assad to deal with ISIS - they are a product of his.  Erdogan has same concern about force- what would be the basis for Turkish military action on the Syrian side. Erdogan wants Assad gone tomorrow.
How to help the Kurds without compromising peace negotiation with PKK.

How have institutions to carry out strategy changed? State department travelling too much and wearing themselves out?  - education, training and structure of carrying out our national interest?

Agree that grand strategy is in decline and with media environment we may sacrifice long term interest for short term media interest.  Things we are taking off table. Take care to meld military and political objectives.
In Kosovo, significant limits placed on military ops, but military objectives were not significant, simply once you start bombing, don't stop until political objectives achieved.  Milosevic was forced to leave Kosovo, successfully.  Not pretty because it took 78 days, not 5 - but it worked.
Usually we leave political objectives to back of envelope - e.g. Gulf war 2 - brilliant militarily but ended policy of dual containment.
Afghan may not be our longest war; that against Iraq is 25 years old and still going.  W Bush administration too hurried in invading, Tony Zinni adjusted rules of engagement 1998-2003 - beating hell out of them, should have kept that war going.
Same mistake in Libya, military action before political objectives.  Till figure out how to put pieces together, caution is OK.

Iran making an atomic bomb? Optimist on Iran.
Iran negotiations? - Russia and China did sign on.

Crucial strategic countries for US: China, Iran, Pakistan. If they evolve constructively/destructively, major changes for us.  Optimist with Iran, Ayatollah said nuclear weapon is forbidden, we should understand significance of that - Iran has ability but has chosen not to build.   Both countries have decision to make as to where it goes, but will not go much further than that.

Have to change the calculation of the Sunnis in Iraq - they see the IS as the lesser of two evils - cannot defeat IS until government in Baghdad changes.  Right strategy is right, rely on Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but can afford to be patient.

Tues 9 Dec 2014: Bret Stephens, leading journalist on world affairs| Video of key points | Youtube version, 3'

Bret Stephens  won a Pulitzer Prize in 2013 for editorials at the Wall Street Journal where he writes a foreign-affairs column and serves as the deputy editorial page editor. Stephens was editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post from 2002 to 2004, the youngest person to fill the role. He won the 2008 Eric Breindel Award for Excellence in Opinion Journalism, and the 2010 Bastiat Prize. In 2005, Stephens was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.

Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'

Prepared remarks

“Disastrous oscillations between over-commitment and isolationism” – Henry Kissinger
So we need a conversation about America’s role in the world.
Book title American in Retreat, not “in decline”
World’s wealthy seek American qualities

Feb. 2013 NY port received Eclipse ship 533’ long, 13,000 tons, cost $1 Bn, 2 pools, crew 70, bullet proof and missile defense with mini-submarine.  Abramowitz (Russian owner of Chelsea FC) owns others too. Second child born there for US citizenship – then set sail.
Chinese millionaire bought property in NYC for daughter to attend Ivy League – she is only 2.
Chinese wealthy are seeking foreign citizenship to be able to leave China in future and often come to US. Chinese President enrolled daughter at Harvard.
If America is in eclipse, what is Eclipse doing in America?

What is decline vs retreat?

UK was postwar, despite exhaustion, still spending 25% of budget on military and Empire. Japan may be in inexorable decline, and PM cannot persuade women to have children, or population to accept immigrants despite their notions of racial purity.
Countries in decline may also be on the March like Russia today, through military adventurism.

Retreat is not inexorable, but a policy choice.

US in 2008 was hit with what seemed a serious financial crisis (though does not seem so bad now); we had been exhausting ourselves with effort and losses in Iraq & Afghan. Obama’s central promise was to end war with Iraq and ensure nation building at home – a core part of his point of view, backed by broad majorities of American people.
1825 JQA inauguration, America does not go abroad to seek monsters to destroy. US was safe from great power politics of Europe.
Isolationism original British term of “splendid isolation” from politics of Europe (though no longer true).
Explained American policy of 1920s-1930s. Idealistic President takes US to war in crusade for democracy, but lost casualties and Americans instead of supporting war, turned isolationist.
Parallel of Wilson with W Bush in idealism for spreading democracy.
Harding administration did make arms agreement, similar to Obama’s attempts to make START treaty with Russia.

For past 6 years, new isolationism.

In Pew Survey 2013, majority said Americas role in world should be to mind its own business; bipartisan attitude for different reasons. Has superficial plausibility (why spend abroad instead of at home; what are the benefits of being world’s policeman?)
This notion of foreign policy versus nation building at home was common in Obama administration.
Obama had ended Iraq war, reset relations with Russia – and advertised these in 2012 campaign. Romney said enemy is Russia (Albright campaign ad, the 1980s want their foreign policy back).
How can ISIS take such a role in Syria and Iraq, taking Mosul? How is Iran on the cusp of a nuclear weapon, and continues to defy us at the bargaining table? Why are the Chinese imposing a zone over islands? Why interdicting American ships in S. China sea; Russia in Crimea?
Should not be surprising: oldest truism in international relations is that if you create a power vacuum, adversaries begin to understand they will face no serious consequences for their aggression; and our traditional allies understood old guarantees of Pax Americana in Asia and Europe. Hear it from Israeli defense minister but also from Saudi intelligence minister and from Polish foreign minister.
Where are you Americans? Why are Japanese considering nuclear reprocessing facility? After chemical redline in Syria was overrun, nothing done.
Is it really in our interest to not restrain Iran to the point where Israel does attack them and draw us in?
Saudi funded Paki nuclear development and therefore owns part; what happens if they decide to own their own deterrent?
It was difficult to develop the theory of nuclear confrontation (Wohlstetter; Kahn) with only two superpowers – but will be much more complex with more nuclear powers.
In 1930s, Japan had signed Kellogg-Briand pact to outlaw war (like Germany and Italy) but a year later it invaded Manchuria; response was a one-year fact finding mission; Italians invaded and gassed Ethiopians; Germany seized Sudetenland; we spiraled into chaos and war.

Are we sliding into that world now? Policing world is expensive but war is much more so.

Option 1 is collective security via UN (but poor record, like League). Russians and Chinese can veto UN on Syria.
2. Balance of Power, worked 1815-1914 but failed in Europe because power seeks to overturn balance. German populations had grown strongly while France’s had not.
3. Liberal peace of Kant, Montesquieu and Fukuyama, with capitalist trading states having incentive for peace.  But in 1914 UK-German trade was largest in world.
4. Leaves us with US as world’s policemen in our own interest, as well as some others. US prospers in secure, stable peace. Small wars common but major wars do not happen; free trade and prosperity and increasing longevity is world of Pax Americana. Should see benefits of this as well as costs.

Do we want to see this continue, or see the rise of insurgent powers?

Not the role of a priest but a deterrent policemen.
WMD was found in Iraq, it was Saddam Hussein, who we pulled out of spiderhole.  What went wrong was we were making a model of democracy, with women’s role and human rights, and we stayed to make Iraq exemplary – too long.
Innovations of C21st? Revolutions of social media; apps on phones; fracking (because private landowners have property rights below soil only in US (except NY) with wildcatting culture). All in US.
Paul Krugman (favorite columnist) wrote US to become largest supplier of oil and gas. Soon will overtake Russia.

Conclusion

So US not in decline but in retreat voluntarily, as if NZ or Costa Rica and rest of world will leave us alone.  Not a spectator sport. Need to play well and to win.

Question Time

If fighting with ISIS, should destroy them. Obama should announce on TV the need to reverse decline in military spending, need more muscular foreign policy with Russia, cannot get by with prevarications as of now.  American adversaries believe they have a feckless administration, so have a two year window of opportunity. If you are Putin, why not invade Estonia? If Iran, why not cheat on nuclear obligations? How much contempt do you have to have for US to be cheating in these negotiations? State department not even calling these a breach (Jen Psaki, spox, recently).
Obama had a terrible 2013 -- and 2014 was worse. Senkaku islands are like the Agadir [German warship off Morocco] crisis of 1911, a potential spark of war.
In 1956 Ike pledged not to intervene in Hungary, and LBJ did not intervene in Czech 1968 where did not have capability.
How different today? Both were protected by Warsaw Pact. Modern Budapest memo guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty in return for giving up nuclear weapons. Russia today is different. Not possible to resupply Czech by air in 1968. Why not intervene in Donetsk (raise costs to Russians)?
Syrian redline breach in 2013 connected to Ukraine later – sent message there would be no consequences.
Does big government stifle innovation? Under Ike we spent 10% of GDP on defense, so not merely cautious and opposed to military industrial complex – built nuclear subs, carriers, SSBNS, never spent less than 50% of federal budget on defense. Now only 19% of budget spent on defense and most goes on entitlements.  Now defense only 3.5% of GDP, lowest except for Clinton administration.

Second set of notes, contributed by Nicholas Howell

Should America be the worlds cop?

-Bret Stephens 2013 Pulitzer Prize for distinguished commentary

US Global power for over 200 years

Uniquely ambivalent about that role
Isolationaliam vs globalization
Book "America in retreat"
America is not in decline

Retreat vs decline

American citizenship/ birth is most stable "investment" parents can make for their children.
Wealthy foreigners doing whatever they can to gain foothold for their children in the US. Value of American passport/ edu
Chinese immigrants --> US
If the 21st century China is on the rise why do they want their children to have US advantage?
Instant green cards for foreigners willing to invest 1mil in US economy
Closed countries are in pop decline ie Japan Russia autocratic countries. Options other than allowing immigration --> hostile takeovers of other countries (Russia)

US retreat is a decision

2008 recession
Exhausted ourselves over 2, 8 year wars Iraq/ Afghanistan
Obama administration current foreign policy; Normalcy/ non interventionism
"Retrenching" /retreating; Remove America from global policy
Let's not spend our energy trying to fix broken countries let's fix ourselves at home.
US tradition of isolationism-US Policy in 1920/30's
Peace love trade around the world and no entangling alliances/ relationships with other countries
The U.S. should not go looking for “monsters” around the world

Wilson & Bush

Shared similar foreign policies
The US change the world and model it after U.S. democracy

2013 pew

It should be Americas role in the world to mind it's own business
Both left and right want nation building at home

Stephens worried about this world view of non-intervention

What have we gained from being the world cop?
What are the benefits of being the world cop?
How did Isis take such a strong hold?
Why does Iran defy US orders and continue to build a nuclear program?
Why is China being aggressive?

Emerging world disorder

Small Slavic countries worry about takeover from Russia with no US support
You create a power vacuum and those vacuums tend to be filled.
US withdrawal from world. China/ Russia will fill power vacuum
US enemies face no real punishment for actions
U.S. threats to not allow Iran to have a nuke; threats carry no credibility

Have to show force to establish credibility. The US has not shown force in the past 15 years.

Theoretically: Israel attacks Iran because they believe that U.S. will not stop Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal.
Saudi Arabia test Pakistan nukes (because Saudi Arabia helped fund Pakistan’s nuclear program part of the Nukes are theirs, in theory) because of fear that the US isn't going to help protect them. Multiple unstable/ immature nuclear powers in Middle East begin to develop.
Israel & Saudi team up against Iran & Turkey?

War as a means of politics was outlawed in 1920/30's

Japan signed tready. Invaded countries a year later.
Italians invading N Africa
1938 Germany invaded Poland
No one was a credible deterrent for axis powers; led to WWII

The US has been a 65 year deterrent. What happens if we decide not to fill that role anymore?

Alternatives to the US being a world cop
Collective security “The UN”
Russians/ Chinese have veto power
65 year example of failure
Balance of power
Failed in Europe
The nature of power is to overturn opposing power)
Who would be the balance?
Liberal peace
more democratic; Trade; free market. Democratic countries not as likely to go to war with each other because of governmental and finically interests
Issues: Britain & Germany were the biggest trading partners in Europe in the1910's --> went to war

“Pax Americana”

 what are benefits of US created world?
Peace resulting from the preponderance of power demonstrated by the United States
Small wars are common; major wars don't happen.
American values around world (free trade, human rights, etc.)

US: Priest vs cop?

Priest tries to change everyone's view/ beliefs
Cop ensures good citizens that they're safe. Keeps bad citizens in check and occasionally makes arrest/ draws gun.
Quiet watchful resourceful peacekeeper
Problem in Iraq?
Within 9 months accomplished initial goal of killing Saddam Hussein (25 year threat to world; 1 million+ people killed)
What went wrong?
We tried to make Iraq a model Arab democracy; does not work with their culture
Went into make an example of Saddam Hussein; 400 lives cost; Supported by US citizens; Success.
Tried to convert Iraq to democracy; 4000 lives cost; Lost support of U.S. Citizens; Failure.

Conclusion

America not in decline it is in a moment of retreat
If the US withdraws will the rest of the world will leave us alone? (like New Zealand.) Stephens: They won't. The U.S. needs a strong foreign policy; it is not a spectator sport
Bottom Line: The US needs to play the game to win

Q&A

Under the Obama Administration it is unlikely that there will be any foreign policy change; how will that change in 2 years with a new administration?
There are currently grudging changes.
The US Shouldn't fight Isis we should try to destroy them. No current radical shifts. Reduce the decline in military spending. Have to have tough foreign policy against Russia/ Iran.
Feckless American administration will not respond.
US rivals have a 2 year window to "do whatever"
If your Putin why not invade Estonia? “The U.S. isn't gonna send in the 82nd airborne.”
Countries might think that the UN doesn't have their back; gonna cut deals with Russia "the new power".
World crisis will reach a boiling point in 2015.
Eisenhower/ LBJ didn't intervene when the USSR was initially expanding, what is the difference between that and now with the Ukraine?
In the 1960s those countries were under the iron curtain with the ICBM nuke arsenal
Russia is not the USSR
The Ukraine has US memorandum declaring its sovereignty. The Ukraine wants to be apart of the west.
We said that the Ukraine was in the sphere of Russian influence that is why it was okay for Russia to take over. It sends the message to Russia that they can continue to expand.
Its not question about the Ukraine: If the US keeps pushing back the red line, It's a signal to our allies that WE WILL NOT BACK THEM UP.
"Broken window policing" If there aren't any consequences for countries actions then they will continue to “act out”.
The US has to be sensitive to red lines. Our red-lines are becoming worthless. Dangerous place to be if you are a superpower.
Can you comment on the National security threat that comes with big government concerning itself with small domestic problems?
EU countries have been trying to establish themselves as welfare states.
These countries are now broke and defenseless. Welfare state won't work unless utopian society
As big government expands less and less space is available to fund core government responsibilities I/e Defense
Average defense budget since 1960: 5.5% of GDP
Today 3.8% of GDP.
Government cannot sacrifice core responsibilities to deal with small domestic issues

Tues 27 Jan 2015: Valerie Plame Wilson, "Weapons of Mass of Destruction….an update." Formerly senior covert officer at the CIA, and a principal American responsible for counter proliferation before 9/11, she was central to the discovery and elimination of an off-the-shelf nuclear weapons smuggling scheme organized by Pakistan.

Ms. Plame served the CIA at times as a non-official cover (or NOC) officer, operating undercover in Europe; and was involved in ensuring that Iran did not acquire nuclear weapons.  Later in her career, she was at the Directorate of Central Intelligence Nonproliferation Center. Ms. Plame had a central role in uncovering the AQ Khan nuclear network, a Pakistan based “ wholesaler” of ready to use nuclear weapons components, centrifuges and rockets.  When her CIA position was revealed in the press, Vice President Cheney's aide was found in breach of the Intelligence Identities Protection Act of 1982. Her story was a serious Washington event, central to the debate on the use and misuse of intelligence in making the case for war with Iraq.
After Plame left the CIA, she continued her work on proliferation issues with former senior officials including George Schultz, Sam Nunn, Bill Perry and Henry Kissinger, and the parallel Global Zero initiative, recently narrating an award winning documentary film, Countdown to Zero, that was presented first in London under the sponsorship of Queen Noor.

Prepared Remarks, "Weapons of Mass of Destruction….an Update."

Visited SPLC and Maxwell AFB ACSC where father had studied.

[Nuclear Proliferation Problem]

20 years ago this month US launched rocket from Norway to study Northern Lights, informed Russians but they missed it and four stage rocket appeared as nuclear strike; they opened their nuclear ‘football’ and informed Yeltsin who took more than the available five minutes to act.  There was no crisis at the time, so he believed warning was mistaken.  Launch on warning was standard policy at both sides – but we only know that Yeltsin did not follow that posture.
Plame was a covert operations office for career, tasked to prevent terrorist or rogue nations from acquiring nuclear weapons. Travelled the world under various covers exploring how scientists were moving materials and money. Monitoring the black market to interfere with purchased nuclear weapons and materials.

[Operations to counter the problem]

Qaddafi, in Libya 2003, stopped the nuclear weapons program after years of creative CIA operations. CIA was chasing the network of AQ Khan of Pakistan, a one man nuclear entrepreneur. Despite criticisms of the organization, some of which she shares, the CIA is still the best equipped organization on this type of operation.  Trying to delay, deter, and reduce nuclear arsenals; she now believes we need to drain the swamp and remove all nuclear weapons. Not a wild eyed leftist idea – did feature in 1984 Reagan address.  Concerned also about new nuclear weapons.

[Betrayed by politicians]

In 2003 her covert identity was leaked by officials in the W. Bush White House.  She believes it to be in retaliation for her husband’s report and article in New York Times that countered the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threat as justification for the 2003 US invasion of Iraq.  At that point no WMD had been found. A week later the conservative columnist Robert Novak revealed her name and ended her career.  Joe Wilson, her husband, and she were called liars, traitors and nepotists. In 2007 Libby was convicted on four counts including obstruction of justice. She retired from her desk job at CIA (not as interesting as her covert career), to Santa Fe, NM. A film crew from the Gore climate film An Inconvenient Truth asked her to narrate their new film Countdown to Zero, on nuclear nonproliferation, featuring famous interviewees, which is still found online.

[Countering nuclear proliferation from now on]

There were at the peak 70,000 nuclear weapons, enough for overkill of globe, under the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). After collapse of USSR, in 1992 there were 1 million protesters against nuclear weapons -- but after the 1995 Sarin gas attack by a cult in the Tokyo subway, elites took notice of the emergent threat of WMD, a broader category, including terrorism. US set up the Counter Proliferation division of the CIA.
There are 3 ways to acquire a bomb: build, buy or acquire by stealing, but we have just got lucky so far.  Russian military prosecutor said of a simple nuclear theft via cutting a padlock, that even potatoes were better guarded.
Hardest thing is to get materials; transport easier, and a detector would have to be within a few feet to intercept the shipment -- and 100K shipping containers are entering US daily.
Terrorism is a deliberate threat -- but unintentional explosion is also important.  We use backup systems, but complexity is enemy of reliability. Even military has made serious mistakes; 1952 nuclear bomber dropped bombs accidentally in North Carolina; one bomb landed by parachute, but the other was saved only by one reliable safety switch out of six.
Nuclear posture and process are the same as during cold war with the USSR, both forces being on 15 minute standby.  60,000 nuclear weapons still in existence, but could be cut in half.
Recommends Eric Schlosser book, Command and Control.
On Sep 18, 1980, the warhead of Titan 2 missile was damaged and exploded after a wrench was dropped into its silo and pierced the skin of the rocket.  Warhead was blown out of silo.
So many false alarms in nuclear age, including mistakes over a rising moon, a flock of geese on radar, and a training tape substituted in a computer for a real tape, all causing dangerous nuclear alerts.
We should stop making new material; secure existing material; improve detection of nuclear materials’ transfer.
But realistically, existing nuclear materials storage, and nuclear warfighting doctrine are here to stay.
There are signs of progress in preventing new development of nuclear weapons: South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine have all agreed to not develop nuclear bombs.
We should attribute the absence of nuclear war so far, to divine intervention or sheer luck rather than human skill.
She recommends non-proliferation web sites such as Global Zero.

Question Time

Please reassure us that nuclear weapons systems safety has improved. [Answer seemed to be yes, but not enough to guarantee safety]
70th anniversary of the first [atomic] test explosion.
Robert Oppenheimer when asked how we could prevent an attack, answered “with a screwdriver” – could open every single container entering NYC.
TV scenario of ‘24’ program where torture produced preventive information just in time – does not exist in reality.
Successes? Did take down almost all of AQ Khan’s nuclear sales network; Gen. Alexander (DCI) did say recently upon retiring that 54 terrorist plots had been disrupted (if not nuclear).
What should US do about Iran’s nuclear development. Absolutely delighted that there are talks going on right now; good that US can speak to enemies as well as friends.  Did not speak to Iranians for over 30 years; easy to misinterpret actions without a relationship.  Iran desperate to be incorporated back into world community; Iranians live in a tough neighborhood. Facing conversation over why it is not acceptable for a Muslim nation to have nuclear weapons.  Just heard some Senators are vocally against softening of line with Iran, esp Sen. Menendez (NJ) who has many pro-Israeli constituents.  In our best interests to prevent Iran causing a nuclear arms race in Middle East.
Just came from top level scientists meeting, dealing with policymakers, but worrisome ignorance of nuclear posture. President Obama’s first speech abroad in 2009 in Prague spoke of a world without nuclear weapons, after Reagan; a golden moment when it was possible to talk of this.  However, President is dealing with crises daily; and interests (including in her home state of NM) dependent on the money.
What was husband doing when you were a NOC and how did you tell him your covert status? He was Amb. I was nervous about telling him, but he simply said, well Ok -- but is your name really Valerie?  Usually said she was a consultant, very common in Washington. Travelled from Wash DC and parents were close enough to watch twins.  Howeveer, once opened Wall Street Journal Op-ed page to find husband called a traitor; his business was destroyed. Difficult times.
Why was Russian dissident exile Litvinenkov when living in London, become a British citizen, poisoned by polonium produced in Russia? Not clear why they went after him, because seemed not a threat to them  -- perhaps as a warning to others.
We outlawed 1972 chemical weapons and made them taboo; problem of nuclear weapons is that if used they would completely and profoundly change everything. Recommended remarks by Gen. Tommy Franks recently in cigar aficionado magazine.
100,000 people would be evaporated in an incident; not conscionable.
Homeland TV show? Good but not realistic, Station Chief in Pakistan portrayed as bipolar, not the type of craziness found in CIA.
[Paramilitary skills?] 15 year old son keeps asking did you kill anyone and so on – but really you do not collect intelligence with a gun in the room.
[Structural reforms] 9/11/ Commission came up with ideas including ODNI, overarching bureaucratic layer, now 2000 staff seconded; I do not know what they do; disapprove because Central Intelligence Agency was set up after Pearl Harbor, in 1947, for that purpose. Washington DC shows boom growth from Defense contractors post 9/11.
Dana Priest book, Pulitzer prize winning journalist, wrote on this security industry boom post 9/11. Former colleagues at CIA feeling frustrated, for nuclear aresenal has not protected us from a different threat, of terrorism.
Recommended Global Zero and Ploughshares Magazine web sites.

[There followed a standing ovation from the overflowing audience, probably the second largest ever recorded at AWAC; an extended book signing; and even a discussion with some military or intelligence retirees who had known Ms. Plame's parents.]

 

Tues 24 Feb 2015: US Ambassador-at-large Clint Williamson, "International War Crimes: One Prosecutor's Story".

Williamson was responsible for war crimes issues and detainees; recent former Lead Prosecutor for the European Union Special Investigative Task Force on Kosovo.
- Currently Distinguished Professor of Law at Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law at Arizona State University, Senior Director at ASU's McCain Institute
- October 2011 to August 2014, served as lead prosecutor for the European Union Special Investigative Task Force, investigating the murder of prisoners for purposes of trafficking in organs in Southern Europe.
- Senior Legal Advisor at the U.S. Department of State on war crimes
- Has held various positions at the United Nations, i.e., Cambodia, Kosovo, Iraq, Yugoslavia

Clint WIlliamson announces for SITF compelling evidence of human organ trafficking during war in Kosovo, July 2104, 3', EurActiv

Clint Williamson served from October 2011 until August 2014 as Lead Prosecutor for the European Union Special Investigative Task Force, which is conducting a criminal investigation into the allegations of war crimes and criminal activity contained in the Council of Europe regarding the inhuman treatment of people and killing of prisoners with the purpose of removal and illicit trafficking in human organs in Kosovo, involving Hashim Thaçi, the Kosovo prime minister.

Immediately prior to this position, he was Special Expert to the Secretary-General of the United Nations at the the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia. The tribunal is charged with prosecuting senior leaders of the Khmer Rouge and those most responsible for mass crimes committed in Cambodia during the 1970s. From June 2006 until September 2009 Williamson served as the United States Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes Issues.

Ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues, Mr Williamson is the State Department official responsible for negotiating another home for Guantanamo captives who can't be returned to their home countries. On 16 October 2008 Williamson, the State Department official responsible for negotiating a new home for the captives held at Guantanamo.

 From 2003 to early 2006 he served in a number of capacities at the National Security Council, including Acting Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Relief, Stabilization, and Development, as well as Director for Stability Operations. During his tenure at the White House, he was instrumental in developing the proposal for the creation of a standing civilian US Government post-conflict response capacity.

 While with the NSC, Williamson also served in Baghdad in 2003 as the first Senior Adviser to the Iraqi Ministry of Justice. In this capacity, he was responsible for re-instituting judicial operations and ministry functions in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion. From late 2001 through 2002, he served as the Director of the Department of Justice in the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), overseeing the justice and prison systems.

From 1994 to 2001, he worked as a Trial Attorney at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in The Hague. While at the ICTY, he supervised investigations and field operations in the Balkans, compiled indictments, and prosecuted cases at trial. Among the cases handled by Williamson were those against Slobodan Milosevic and the notorious paramilitary leader Zeljko Raznatovic, aka “Arkan,” as well as cases arising from the Yugoslav Army attacks on Vukovar and Dubrovnik in Croatia.

Prior to joining the ICTY, Williamson served as a Trial Attorney in the US Department of Justice Organized Crime Section and as an Assistant District Attorney in New Orleans, Louisiana. Williamson holds a bachelor’s degree from Louisiana Tech University in Ruston (Louisiana) and a law degree from Tulane University Law School in New Orleans.

Prepared remarks
How the rule of law has evolved internationally.

Easy to be depressed about the rights denied to various groups, and too often expressed in mass killings, as in Syria and Iraq currently where many killed or homeless.

Only in 1993 when first ICTY was created by UNSC, operational 1994.

Successful since but there were doubts when established, first in 50 year since Nuremburg and Tokyo trials post WW2, when victors were in a position to arrest and to see documents.  In 1994 between Bosnia and Kosovo, it seemed unlikely that military leaders could be tried, beyond a few scapegoats; Serbs were uncooperative.  Even international forces felt beyond their authority. Serbs beat and killed large group of wounded Croatian prisoners, 1991, first massacre (200), youngest was hugging a teddy bear.
Secret indictment by ICTY (under seal) to increase chances to arrest – suspect had returned to Serbia, so had to arrest him when he left Serbia in a complex operation. The feared popular uprising did not occur, though a grenade was thrown at a UN vehicle, though that turned out to be a wedding celebration.
Empowered another arrest operation, by British troops, though in firefight he was killed.  NATO forces were emboldened to make arrests themselves. Milosevic protected those in Serbia, so they fled to Serbia.
Kosovo, by 1999 when Serbs fighting with ethnic Albanian irregulars; Serbs slaughtered a village and left bodies in the streets.

[First prosecution]

CW was tasked by chief prosecutor to develop an indictment against leaders, in real time – first of a sitting head of state, Milosevic and four others. Fear was M would have no incentive to sue for peace but he moved quickly for agreement, leaving the indictment on the books.  New Serbian government gave him up to ICTY and PM was later assassinated.
Took 16 years to get all indicted to trial, including Ratko Mladic.  160 cases brought, and generated much jurisprudence to international law, only some of which is controversial.
Late 1990s Rome Treaty effective 2002 with 60th signatory, but US hostile under W Bush, which Condoleeza Rice saw as counterproductive and she asked CW to take on tasks.  US now supportive of ICC if not a signatory.
Sierra Leone 1990s and Khmer Rouge in 1970s.

Shift to a hybrid model, partly because of difficulty in reaching consensus in UNSC.

Freetown Sierra Leone had advantage of involving local people and their judges – so did in Cambodia, where 1.8 M people, 1/3 of pop had been killed.  Had not been talked about till then even by local people, audience of 25,000 any of whom had taken long bus rides to watch. Transformed way history had been taught – previously only one lie in texts, but now entire books published.
Another model is post-conference stabilization missions, “peace keeping”, through coalitions sending missions where domestic systems were unable, biased or corrupt.
Kosovo in late 1990s, government run by UN, and CW became effectively Justice minister with 300 international judges. CW left 2002, and since, UN has tried to shift responsibility to local Kosovars. Unfortunately has become a bit of a crutch for local judges, who do not have to deal with this caseload.
 Hundreds of people had been abducted, tortured and murdered – most sensationally for harvesting organs.

Important not to expect one model to work in all cases. In many cases without international consensus (Syria today, action blocked by China and Russia) or just unable to act (DR Congo).

If major perpetrators can be brought to account though, will increase accountability.
With moves to raise moral standard in conduct of war, Civil war codes, Hague conventions, US has been in forefront of these efforts, instrumental in the rebirth of international community justice in recent. Not a perfect US record, but a long US tradition of seeking moral standards in conflict.  As a global power, there are few places where conflict does not affect us.
Not to suggest international tribunal would have prevented 9/11 -- but international justice mechanisms are one of the tools for reconciliation and stability. Old aphorism may be over used, but No justice, No peace.
Not just low level scapegoats arrested but even Charles Taylor, Saddam, Bashir of Sudan, other leaders indicted.  Now an expectation that leaders who conduct war crimes will be indicted.

Question Time

Current conflicts: Boko Haram and ISIS, will they be brought to justice?
Yes, hopeful that in time, some will be indicted, but justice is slow, and will come after a military defeat that does not look to happen in the near future.

UN general assembly and special human rights council last year gave detailed report on North Korea, perhaps worst in world. Do you see that turning into indictment?

Particularly in Africa and Asia, people often say they have own culture and ways of dealing with things. Usually by ignoring the past. Prosecution is a western concept. Once unification of Korean peninsula, might integrate by ignoring the North – but indictments would probably be called for.

Does US resist jurisdiction because afraid of being turned against?

Yes, US has refused to become a state party to ICC (Clinton administration sought checks and balances on prosecutor, who might be able to indict all senior members of a government – perhaps UNSC to countersign). Clinton did sign, but noted Senate not likely to ratify, and W Bush hostile, especially John Bolton at UN. Sec. Condoleeza Rice cooperative under Obama, provide intelligence cooperation for evidence, and we have prevented efforts to block ICC – but do not expect it to occur that US sign under any political party.
Efforts to indict US for civilians killed in bombing strikes, US & NATO forces went to great lengths to mitigate civilian deaths. Clinton, Albright indictments were called for -- but not of other NATO leaders, hence clearly political. Carla del Ponte as next prosecutor also agreed that NATO strikes in Serbia not aimed at civilians.  In Libya US called in to support by British and French, who took lead on strikes.  So, US not likely to sign until some check is provided on political prosecution.

Death penalty available? Why such delays?

No death penalty except the Iraq high tribunal that executed Saddam Hussein, handled very unfortunately – CW was actually home for Christmas when this happened, and was on phone trying to stop this lest it play out like a lynching, which is how this appeared.  Otherwise no tribunals have had death penalty. Long prosecutions are frustrating Proceedings in 3 languages: English, French and Bosnia-Croatian and translators cannot last more than a couple of hours.  Hundreds of thousands of pages of documents all having to be translated.  Much would not be tolerated by US judges, such as long recesses, witnesses spread out around world, and a lower work ethic.  Pressures in recent years to move these prosecutions along.  US pays about a quarter of costs of each tribunal.  Judges resist interference from US donor, but now Europeans and Canadians also urging faster processing.

Future of waging conflict with Chinese in non-human rights environment?

First Bush admin had opposition to ICC, article 98 issue (state party to ICC can enter into agreement not to hand over foreign citizens indicted). US pressured many countries to agree not to do so for US citizens, lest they lose US military assistance – made it hard to get countries to enter agreements. Chinese and Russians then stepped in to offer military assistance. When Condi Rice became Secretary of State she saw this policy as counter-productive and reversed it.  Chinese have been savvy about moving into any vacuum that can be supported, especially in Africa building football stadiums (Sierra Leone, Congo) in return for exclusive fishing rights and kickbacks.  Chinese not concerned with human rights, so US and Europeans unable to compete directly – but Chinese sometimes pretty clumsy and do not have such as good a story to sell.

Tuesday 7 April 2015: Olexander Motsyk, "Ukraine in Crisis." Ambassador of the Ukraine, with diplomatic delegation. Additional event.

Amb. Motsyk is a former envoy to Poland, an expert on Turkey and maritime law, and a tireless advocate for his country.
- Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the United States since June 2010
- Permanent Observer of Ukraine at the Organization of American States since July 2011
- Has served in the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for 30 years
- Graduated from Kiev University Summa Cum Laude in International Law, speaks English, Russian, and Polish

 Amb. Motsyk speaks on the fighting in eastern Ukraine (YouTube, 2') 'Fighter Jets Shot Down From Russia'

Alexander Motsyk has been a long-time senior  Ukrainian diplomat, mostly recently making the case of the urgent need for help to confront  Moscow-backed separatists, a moribund state of the Ukrainian military, and a desperately depleted Ukranian economy.

Ambassador Motsyk graduated from Kyiv State University’s School of International Relations, Department of International Law, as an English language interpreter and international law specialist and then served the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the last days of the Soviet Empire as a legal expert in international organizations and expert on treaties.  His first overseas mission was from April 1992 to August 1995 at the UN. He later became Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkey, a post he held for four years. After a stint in Kiev, Amb Motsyk became Ambassador to Poland, a post he held until June 2010 when he returned to the United States as Ambassador.

In addition to being ambassador to the United States, Motsyn represents Ukraine as its ambassador to Antigua and Barbuda.

Olexander Motsyk, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Ukraine, "Crisis in the Ukraine: What it Means for the West."
Topic: Political and economic aspects of Ukraine, rather than history.
[This talk was more rapid and less audible than usual; these notes omit some passsages that were inaudible.]

Aggression against country that had given up nuclear weapons.

A year since occupation of Crimea. President of Russia admitted to an invasion of Crimea, and admitted done by own forces with Russian weapons; therefore claims of civil war are blatant lies.
Full-fledged war exists and attempt to portray it as internal war is ridiculous. 15,500 wounded and [many] dead. Even in ceasefire Ukrainian soldiers were killed and many had to flee homes. Ceasefire violated by separatists on a daily basis. Ukraine is peace loving people and conflict is brought by Moscow. Trying to resolve by diplomatic means, but it can only be a Russian military as covert operation.
Occupied part of Ukrainian land with most sophisticated forces and weapons held by Russia and they backed separatists

Minsk 2 agreement –

fully compliant by Ukraine and removed weapons from front lines but Russians have not stopped.
Did not withdraw Russian Special Forces; did not allow inspection by Ukraine or by Red Cross; shelled Ukrainian positions with 100 mm and 120 mm artillery banned by Minsk agreements.
OSCE must be able to inspect to ensure Minsk agreements followed.
Foreign troops must be withdrawn and separatists disarmed.
Russian invasion of Georgia was soon forgiven by international community and shows Putin’s strategy is piecemeal conquering of neighbors.

International sanctions against Russia should not be dropped until there is Minsk compliance.

Ukraine needs rearming and implementing of Minsk agreements.
Affects not just Ukraine but entire transatlantic community.
War must be stopped now so not to spill over to GA and other states. Attempt to paralyze UNSAC

Need a democracy and prosperous Ukraine.

Ukraine shares value of democracy, freedom, and the rule of law that made European civilization what is today, a community of free and prosperous nations. Ukraine seeks peace with all our neighbors including Russia.
Ukraine has lost 20% of its income, apartment buildings destroyed, airports, roads, infrastructure destroyed, and a [large value] of materiel stolen by Russians.
Diligent efforts to improve the economy and reduce corruption, are the objectives of PM. Priority is placed on national security, economics and financial stability, EU integration and good governance.

Well positioned to integrate in EU.

Agriculture, air and space and technology are most promising sectors for development.

Spoke to a joint session of Alabama legislature this afternoon: there are opportunities for business investment.

Ukrainian-American couple spoke to CNN today and are here tonight.
Ukraine and Alabama may be geographically remote but not apart in response to Russian aggression.

Solidarity of Ukraine and American people
Last year loan guarantees and aid were supplied from US, and tech assistance given, this year more.  IMF and EU also offering assistance.
Unfortunately aggression did not stop.
UN General Assembly adopted resolution [overwhelmingly] but the 11 states who voted against were Syria, Venezuela, North Korea and other rogue states.
Complicated situation of Russians living in Ukraine?

Russian official policy and the state are the subject of the above discussion; yet at home we have shared many years together as one people.

How long can Ukraine hold out without a re-supply of defensive weapons – till next election?
Need air defenses [and more]. Many Russian troops also died in this conflict in Ukraine.
[Long statement followed by a Ukraine-American woman; equated Russia with political form of Terrorism.]

Wednesday 19 April 2015: William Moomaw, "The Future of Energy Worldwide--- Affecting the Economy, National Security and the Environment," professor emeritus of Tufts University, a natural scientist, and former Co-Lead Author of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that was shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, one of two major reports that provoked changes in policy across many nations. Bill graduated from Lanier High School in Montgomery in 1955.

Prof. William Moomaw on the urgent need for an international agreement on climate change, Fletcher school, 2011, 4'

[Economic benefits of fossil fuels:]

oil and gas companies have trillion $ value; in last year, twice as many solar workers as in coal mines. Renewables now employ more than the top software firms combined, and China especially growing in solar and other renewables.

[Energy also tied to national security.]

Conflict regions Iraq ISIS and Afghan; Ukraine; Sudan, South Sudan and Darfur; Nigeria, China and Sotuh China Sea neighbors.
China concerned with 200 mile sea limit.
Financing conflict: 9/11 funded by oil money; Taiban from Saudi oil money or from US aid diverted. ISIS sells oil too, so we are paying for both sides of conflicts with oil money.
Defense Quadrennial Review (DQR) calls climate change force multipliers; severe drought in Syria recently found to be linked to rise of ISIS.
Climate change will cause destabilized governments, destruction of land and water from tar sands, mountain top removal for coal, fracking, Exxon Valdez spill harmful after 25 years; BP spill in Gulf; and daily spills in Nigeria.
US only has 2 icebreakers. 8 Arctic countries, joined by multiple observer countries including China.  Evidently much interest in resources being uncovered here.

[Environmental damage]

Images of environmental damage in Canada, WVA mountain tops and others.
Fournier greenhouse effect diagram of solar insolation and radiation; resulting heat buildup measured in Watts per m2.
Measures of global warming in industrial age from CO2 in ice, methane; NO -- all graphs show hockey stick effect  and NO comes from fertiliser, which doubles world grain yield and feeds the world. Temperature records and evidence since 1,000 AD. Earth has cooler phases every 100,000 years.
Global land-ocean temperature index graph shows strong rise from 1910, though levels off from 2003 approx. 14/15 warmest years are in C21st.

[Effects on US]

US map of warming 1951-1980 and 1991-2012 shows SE states are the only ones to avoid warming. Record highs to record lows ratio has been rising since 1970s.  Very heavy precipitation events have increased especially in East.
In one storm in 2014 Alabama had heaviest rain since 1871 when records were established.
Hurricanes although not caused by global warming, derive their intensity from warmer oceans -- and Sandy occurred in October, after the end of normal hurricane season, occurred with higher seas and high tide as well as pull of moon. Increasing frequency of disasters is costing both US and insurance companies much more in payoffs.

[Maritime effects]

Minimal arctic sea ice has shrunken according to satellite images 1979-2012. Trend is strongly down despite fluctuations in acreage of ice.
Satellite measurements of sea level since 1993 have been more accurate than tidal gauges -- and still strongly rising. Pakistan 2010 flood displaced 20M people across a valley the size of the Mississippi. Basmati rice crop was wiped out and the global price tripled.
Philippines’ typhoons in 2013 and 2014 both hit while diplomats were negotiating; this had a salutary effect on developing countries' flexibility in negotiations. Boston in 2015 received a record snow fall.  Paradoxically this was caused by an act of global warming -- of ocean evaporation hitting cold jet stream -- while at the same time CA and AK lacked snow.

[From fossil fuels to renewables]

We are pouring gasoline on the fire of global warming. CO2 is irreversible for 1,000 years, so unable to go backward.  Can only burn fossil fuels for about 30 more years.
Wood peaked, then coal 1850, and oil peaking now. Wind and solar may be energy for the C21st, and are growing rapidly whereas coal and natural gas declining relatively. Renewables 10% of energy now, oil 33% US.  Coal 18%. Renewables now affected by growth in China and India, not just western Europe --US lagging behind.  Price of natural gas and price of electricity have increased in US. Lithium-ion batteries’ price has been dropping and Elon Musk will be opening a large new factory next year in Nevada.  Corporate car mileage per gallon has doubled since 1970s and is up 29% in 13 years.  US petroleum production has been increasing but consumption has dropped and leveled off.

[Personal action]

Drives Prius charged from solar panels, and referred to the Tesla battery in Tesla EV, which accelerates hard, holding the highest safety rating. Formula E race was held last year.
House is net zero in energy draw, despite the awful northern winters; it employs solar energy, heat from ground via heat pump, even though the house cost less to build than their previous colonial house; new home has and energy load of 60 instead of 160,000 BU/ft2. By 2010 almost no cost and all electricity, recent year's bill was $13 plus meter fee.
Solar panel was a better investment 2005-2015 than bonds and almost as good as stocks, including the tax credits.
Tax credits supplemented by traded credits from others and that pays companies enough to install,

[Corporate decisions]

Apple now largest private producer of solar in world, and will pay a new solar power plant to produce for Apple. Apple thus will pay fixed price for energy for next 30 years. Walmart is moving to 100% renewables. Already has reached 24%. Edison institute of utilities see solar as a threat to their business model.

[Political effects]

[Surprisingly, Right wing has adopted solar power within its own terms of individualism]
Barry Goldwater Jr frames this as individual rooftops versus socialist utilities; Tea Party's Debbie Dooley frames solar as independence.
US Government is currently negotiating an agreement for a treaty by Dec 2015; the US and the EU have agreed to reduce emisions substantially, and China will limit emissions to 2030 level, while developing countries will agree to emissions reduction.
China has cut emisions 2% this year even though economy grew 7%, so dramatically more efficient, and have installed huge amounts of renewables.

26 May 2015: Senior Air War College Instructors "Report to Alabama" on their recent trips to areas of interest around the globe as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.

Air University professors take their officers to areas of their respective specialization for in-depth meetings with military, intelligence, and political counterparts. The unique and timely impressions are shared with the Alabama World Affairs Council.

Changing of the Guard

The evening began with fulsome tributes -- a proclamation from the city, official US House and Senate recognition, and a plaque from AWAC trustees --  to Gen. Charles 'Chick' Cleveland on his retirement from the Presidency of AWAC after 17 years of excellent service.

Prof. Dave Sorenson, Egypt and Turkey [maps]

US has important relationships with both but does not understand them well. Both have strategic waterways, both in strategic areas and both are allies with the US.
Similarities, both have contests between Islamists and military. In Turkey the Islamists have won, and in Egypt military have won – for now.
US used to apolitical military but for Egypt and Turkey politics is the business of the military.  Unable to call these ‘coups’ because would be unable to sell arms to them. ISIL becoming more dangerous to both.
In Egypt Mori sentenced to life and now to death. Al Sisi, a graduate of AWC, is in power and now President of Egypt.
Turkish police arrested 49 senior military on behalf of PM Ergodan, Islamist.
How do we deal with these partners? Real challenge is ISIS/ISIL [maps].
For Turkey, sees PKK as at least as dangerous as IS.
Egypt has insurgency group in Sinai, Shia group; did raid IS in Libya after IS killed Coptic Christians but only once.
US now selling weapons to Egypt again – and so are Russians. Egypt $3.1 Billion, Turkey more -- and has F35s, one of few countries to do so.

Prof. Amit Gupta, India and Indonesia

Militaries start from assumption of unlimited resources and this is 70th anniversary of US forces in Germany and in Japan, soon in South Korea also. We are now considering playing whack-a-mole in Asia for next 70 years. But we have huge trade debt to Chinese and we lack young manpower for the military.
How do we raise our game to meet challenge of Islamic world? We tend to think of Islam as being Saudi Arabia. However, Indonesia has the largest Muslim population at 209 M, more than Pakistan, then India then Bangladesh, then Egypt with 80 M.
[Images of Indonesian women body builders and pop magazine with Britney Spears.] Note: Scantily clad below head scarf, ‘Islam ends at the neck’.  Islam was brought by traders so a different type of Islam.
Syncretic culture, mixture of animism, Hindu, Muslim and Christian; secularism and tolerance.  Problem of growing Saudi influence.
Elections in India: 8115 M electorate, 450 M voted.
Voting used to be influenced by caste and region but now by economic performance, 1 M new workers per month for next 10 years. 900 M cell–phones now facilitating democracy via social interaction. Has basic education and employment and now faces issues of being in tech age.
1971 Pakistani army surrendered in Bangladesh [image] to Indian generals – and those around the formal photo were Muslim, Jewish, Zoroastrian and other minorities. India’s military officers are diverse.
3 largest Muslim countries in world do not play by Middle Eastern playbook.
USA community college educational system could be created in these countries to avoid extremism.

Prof. Chris Hemmer (Dean, AWC), Jordan, Qatar and Saudi

Iranian nuclear deal focus – dominant theme of news coverage is disappointment with the deal and of snub by Saudi king in not attending.
Fraying among alliances but not foreshadowing end of gulf alliance. Some tension to be expected.
Most common criticism is that US foreign in Middle East is inconsistent and hypocritical – probably because it is.
Our varied interest s in Middle East makes for inconsistent policy – democracy, oil, counter terrorism, and support of Israel.
Should US focus on defeating IS even if it means cooperating with Iran? Many allies are similarly conflicted and have hypocritical policies – Arabs happy to lose Gadhafi in Libya to Arab spring, but not their other autocratic leaders. Saudis feel surrounded and besieged by Iran across region.  From Saudis, view, they want US to focus on Iran rather than IS – but IS is not a tool of Iran, they view Iranians as apostates to be killed.
A Saudi officer spoke of Netanyahu as speaking against Iran for Saudi also. Top goal with Iran is nuclear nonproliferation – and willing to trade off economic sanctions for this goal. US sees Iran as having to be integrated back into region. Saudis see it the other way around – want a nuclear Iran to be isolated from region.  Concerned that US and Iran might become allied nations as they used to be before 1979.
If current negotiations succeed, Saudis will criticize but remain close to US. Like Muslim marriage (other partners) not Catholic marriage. Chinese can offer huge economic assistance in area – but Saudis do not need it, they need US defense aid.
Likely for US and Saudis to remain uncomfortable with alliance for years to come, but current Riyadh regime is best bet for US I long run. Saudis now campaigning against Houthis in Yemen.
Saudis claim US is impetuous and unreliable – but still need US defense and US needs a stable ally even if ultra conservative. Neither has a good alternative.

Question time:

Who pays for ISIS?

Rich individuals funded initially, but now taxes, oil sales and selling captured equipment, have become self-sustaining. Saudis do see IS as danger, but a lesser one than Iran. They underestimate IS as a short term blip compared to the permanent threat of Persians.

Iran expansionist and aggressive?

Iran has only expanded beyond borders in 1971 to small islands – Iranians on the other hand feel surrounded by other linguistic groups and ethnic groups. – Sorenson
Hemmer, disagrees; Iranians see themselves as heirs to Persian Empire, want to be treated as a great power, which arouses Saudi opposition.

Nuclear balance between India and Pakistan?

Gupta, Chinese say if able to hit 5 US cities would be enough deterrent. India and Pakistan can do that to each other. Both keep their warheads distance from missiles so hard to capture, but also indicates no first use and no accidental use. Pakistan also disassembled weapons for safety. If one warhead hit Pyongyang or Teheran, nothing much left. By contrast, US targets 30,000 locations in USSR, and Russians likewise.