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Notes, 2011-12

These notes by Jeremy Lewis do not represent the views of AWAC, its Board, or other members.

Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'
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13 September 2011: Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., "National Security Legal Issues: What's Hot," (Maj. Gen. USAF, Retired). Faculty member, Duke University Law School. Former Deputy Judge Advocate, USAF. Taught at USAF JAG School at Maxwell AFB, Montgomery.

4 October 2011: Adam Segal, "How we can Overcome the Asian Challenge," Ira A. Lipman Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. Expert on Chinese policy and cybersecurity.

In October, The Montgomery Advertiser published this column by Gen. Cleveland.

8 November 2011: Peter Evans, "Sources of the US Comparative Advantage in Energy," Director of Global Strategy and Planning, GE Energy Infrastructure. Extensive international energy experience.

February 7, 2012: Bing West, Rand Corporation analyst, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.

6 March 2012: Dr. Susan Kaufman Purcell, Director, Center for Hemispheric Policy, University of Miami. A recognized expert on Latin America, she has served as  Vice President of the Council of the Americas.

8 May 2012: Four senior Air War College instructors will report to the Council on their recent trips.


13 September 2011: Charles J. Dunlap, Jr., "National Security Legal Issues: What's Hot" (Maj. Gen. USAF, Retired). Faculty member, Duke University Law School. Former Deputy Judge Advocate, USAF. Taught at USAF JAG School at Maxwell AFB, Montgomery.
Charles J. Dunlap, Jr. (Maj Gen USAF Retired) is Visiting Professor of Law at Duke University and Executive Director, Center on Law, Ethics and National Security. A former Deputy Judge Advocate General of the United States Air Force, he joined the Duke Law faculty in July 2010. His teaching and scholarly writing focus on national security, international law, civil-military relations, cyberwar, and military justice. He has served on the faculty of the Staff Judge Advocate School at Maxwell AFB.
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4 October 2011: Adam Segal, "How we can Overcome the Asian Challenge," Ira A. Lipman Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations. Expert on Chinese policy and cybersecurity.
Adam Segal is the Ira A. Lipman Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is an expert in technology and development in China and India; East Asian security; Chinese domestic and foreign policy; and cyberconflict and cybersecurity. He has served as an arms control analyst and a visiting professor at MIT. His latest book is Advantage: How American Innovation Can Overcome the Asian Challenge.
Introduction to Adam Segal, 4 Oct 2011
Expert on the interface of technology & security in regards to China. He took his graduate exams in Chinese.  The author of two books, most recently Advantage: How American Innovation can Overcome the Chinese Challenge.
Prepared Remarks:
The media narrative in recent years has been that the Chinese are doing everything well (with examples). Guangqing tech park, accessed by wide motorway, with offices staffed by top graduates of Qinghua and Beijing universities. US companies go for tech grads and rising market, but also because Chinese government encourages it.
But some parts of narrative don’t fit: Chinese engineers don’t work together well because of individual competition in education system; property rights problem – one competitor had built an exact replica of machine.  Restroom sign “Relax, all the toxins have been removed” – most contractors use illegal or dangerous materials.  City inspectors not trustworthy, so solution was to install numerous green plants to filter the air.
Essential “hardware” of facts shows statistical growth but “software” of attitudes and relationships needs much improvement.
Innovation in sense of next generation products – not the same as Chinese and Indian strength of minor innovations in next version of equipment.
But real innovation depends on science to develop next generation of equipment.
China has been increasing R&D but still much smaller fraction of GDP than US.  Better than India which underfunds science.
Report says China loses 60% of science money to corruption; article in Nature exposes problems of creating a lab with basic science: short termism, official corruption, and inability to contradict senior scientists.  Also censorship of publication.
Numbers are very soft – anyone who worked with machinery is an engineer.  Quality is serious issue.
India will face shortage of engineers and scientists  -- famous institutes of science and engineering have few quality campuses below them.
Chinese scientists have admitted to paying people to write papers, but major quality issue, only a portion of published papers reveal actual science data.
(Theme that Thomas Friedman is too optimistic about China and India.)
C2C = copy to China, producing several versions of FaceBook etc. Not real innovation.
Chinese factory to the world – but polluting, energy intensive and margins narrow.
Patents for the intelligent parts of machines they make are held by Japanese & US, so most value of manufacturing leaves the country.
Lack of regulation – possible to clone Intel processors without regulators.  Clone OS, improved on Windows, stable and 1/3 price, but hard to sell because of pirated versions of Windows.
On the other hand, R&D center is training next generation of software engineers.  But these new engineers prefer to work for transparent HR systems of US companies.  More pleasant and rational workplace. Possibly Chinese will improve in these respects but difficult.

'Software' (cultural) advantage for US: openness to new ideas, tolerance for risk and entrepreneurship, and reformed scientific education?
US needs visa and immigration policy that helps talent to stay, capital gains tax breaks, partnerships & communities e.g. Maine’s composite woods partnership.
If US actually had shortage of scientists & engineers, salaries would have gone up – so not true.  Not true that Americans are not interested in Science & engineering – just not interested in becoming scientists.  They transfer out of science but are interested in problem solving.
Focus on “hardware” really distorts where China and India are.

Question Time
Where will US competitors come from?
Koreans competing on digital TV, but biotech turned out to be faking the data.
Chinese are leading in manufacturing but not innovation, rely on gradual improvement (e.g. battery technology).
Insatiable appetite for energy?
70% still from coal, very poor quality soft coal. Importing some, driving outreach to Latin America and Africa.  Most Chinese oil is returned to market.
Chinese undermine US attempts to reform good government – but Zambian backlash recently in elections.
Chinese not used to state relations and civil society relations.  Chinese ambassador may be outranked by local Chinese business officer and may resent the connections.
Very little pressure inside the Chinese government, we already know the next generation of Chinese leaders.
Google was hacked by China, Gmail had been used by dissidents.  Google left China, thereby cutting the scientists’ community of Google scholar.
Middle Class growing, leading to protests?
Has been coopted, not politicized, their lives being much better than 10 years ago, and believing it will continue.  Few surveys but government does have extremely high satisfaction level.
Chinese locally have been protesting on the basis of NIMBY, and resisted extension to property taking for bullet train that now has restricted speed.
500 M internet users in China, watching funny cats but also remarking on bullet train accident and this gives outlet but also government can track the opinion.
How to compete with Chinese subsidies for subsidized solar panels and other innovation?
Needs more pressure on Chinese govt.  Also needs building innovation communities, and some creative thinking to keep manufacturing here via tax breaks and other support.
Transparency, accountability and rule of law would reduce corruption.  India is a corrupt democracy – but China while more corrupt, gets things done.
Chinese & Indian science students in US – do China and India reap the benefits?
– brain drain not a problem.  China seek expats to return.  In past 15 yrs. have benefitted US but we need to retain them.  US more connected to these scientists than others, through alumni nets.  Publications show coauthor of choice is still from US.
Sustainability in China? Urbanization?
China doing both, including high speed rail, subway lines but also embracing car culture.
Rare earth production in China, after West reduced owing to environmental concerns.
Serious in short term, for corps have to produce in China, but not a long-term problem because found everywhere, Canada, Australia and US will restart mining when needed.
China-US relations in next decade over Taiwan.
HTC and other Taiwanesecorps leverage China capabilities.  About 3/22M Taiwanese at any one time are in China.  President is a nationalist, looking for economic but not for political integration.  Recent arms sale to Taiwan did not cause much reaction.
Middle class 300-500M, per cap income $3-7K.
Possible disruptions?
Some instances of Government children misbehaving with protection; food scares, melamine, glycerin problems.  These cause some protests.
Major political change in a decade? Discontinuity, perhaps over environment.
E.g. benzene spill at NE village, government provided water for some days, but many stories on internet.  With a larger incident beyond local government efficiency and corruption story – would spread protests against national government.
Falun gong shows government crackdown because of ability to spread national protest.  Enviros might do same across country, could be difficult for government.
China now second largest economy, depending on measurement?
Will be largest because of large pop but 1.2 B pop does not mean all good.  Demographics, pollution & inequality issues.
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8 November 2011: Peter Evans, "Sources of the US Comparative Advantage in Energy,"Director of Global Strategy and Planning, GE Energy Infrastructure. Extensive international energy experience.
Peter C. Evans is Director of Global Strategy and Planning, GE Energy Infrastructure, which is responsible for tracking and analyzing policy trends around the world and the related implications for GE Energy’s long-term strategy. He oversees the Carbon, Fuels and Policy Centers of Excellence as well as scenario planning projects for the business. Dr. Evans has extensive international energy experience, including Director of Global Oil and two years as a Visiting Scholar at the Central Research In Institute for the Electric Power Industry in Tokyo, Japan.
Peter C. Evans, “Energy and American Comparative Advantage.” Sponsored by Sam. Johnson of Johnson Sterling Inc..
Global strategy and planning for General Electric. Job is to tell chairman what he doesn’t know – a challenge because he travels extensively. 100,000 employees in energy business alone.
Presentation, Sources of US comparative advantage:
natural endowment (classical idea) and creative endowment (newer idea), but US is rich in both.
natural endowment
Graph shows US leads in hydrocarbon reserves, principally coal, esp. shale gas – above Russia, China, GCC, Canada & Latin America.
N. American oil finds – huge reserves.
Fracking of natural gas means US will not have to import, but exporting in years to come.  Price outlook: US will have huge cost advantage over others as supply cuts price.
Renewables abundant in US – and has much room to grow because only 3.8% of total electric generation.
creative endowment
US has more researchers than EU-27, further above Japan and well above SK -- and still above China (but China going to overtake, if not in experience).
US legacy of innovation: nuclear 1950s, gas turbines 1970- also #1, wind, solar geothermal all in top 5.
Areas of current US advancement:
digital tech penetrating energy space, oil & gas fields, etc …
Web & plant based software services, system optimization.  Power grids measurement, transmission, metering, common info model and RF mesh for smart metering.
Technological integration will produce synergies … gas and renewables.  Linking systems together to achieve efficiencies.  Trillon $ per year in capital investment. Combining electrical infrastructure with intermittent renewables (wind) with gas turbine backup and info infrastructure.
Electric vehicle fleets need grid architecture for plug-ins, charging stations, and will be adopted in rental and commercial fleets.
Unconventional fuel tech efforts, US at forefront of fracking tech but also in environmental mitigation of new fuels.
Water used in production and cooling, becoming increasingly scarce – driving innovation in oil sand fracking, steam generation, and increasing viscosity of bitumen.
Global energy industry realignment: 80% of oil & gas in only 16 countries. Electricity demand in non-OECD is surpassing demand in OECD.
Gas turbines: early investment has paid off for US.  Not likely to build out to major increase in US exports.
World is not flat in energy – we still need to drive free trade. Many countries impose local content requirements on gas & wind turbines.  Tariff and non-tariff barriers restrain our trade.
US in very strong position, well endowed and innovative, with great research universities, business & finance cultures, and top contract law system.
Question Time:
  • Cyber attack risk? Grown as a concern with more digital technologies in energy infrastructure.  Some risk, but an array of initiatives, including at GE, with standards.
  • Transmission and transport components a problem? There are bottlenecks and some accidents but small proportion to infrastructure.  Tapping shale gas quickly, because have pipelines already constructed.
  • Natural gas for transport in near future? Niche applications, and not in next 5 years, but fleets and trucking; hybrids a more competitive threat.  Buyer’s market now in gas, suppliers wanting to see price increase from $4.
  • Coal technology? Most expecting 1/3 of fleet of coal stations to be retired. Could be replaced with alternatives – clean coal looks costly at present, compared to gas plus wind & solar.  US not growing fast in electricity consumption.
  • Grad students in those research universities in US are foreign.  How to dominate research when has low education scores in science & math?  Secondary education is a concern for comparative advantage, but research lead in higher education is ours to lose – less of a lead in rest of economy.
  • Smart grid with wireless transmissions might impact people’s health? Remote effects, have not seen data on that.
  • Competition in business and in government? Worried about paralysis in Washington, risk of drift in policy.  Scenario planning includes “global grind” of continued unemployment, debt drags for a decade like Europe – then could stymie development.
  • What constraints from global warming on fossil fuels?  Higher carbon prices and cap & trade system would drive the business, but not much action taking place, global financial crisis hit during Copenhagen summit, ended reform, and now carbon prices have declined in Europe.
  • China and India are deploying a lot more clean energy than we ever expected them to do – but is carbon the only source?  Solyndra and dependence on government money? Just announced will build largest solar factory in US.  Key is a cost advantage in marketplace – Solyndra was experimenting with a high-cost process, and lost in market.  GE excited about thin film technology.  300 MW factory in CO, on line 2013.
  • Other issues?  GE used to have largest domestic market in world – but India & China will build 50% of installed base in next ten years.  How do you pivot to this new market? Water constraints and volatility of financial market are concerns?  Climate change just in background but will continue to have impacts.  OECD debt burden an issue.
  • Why strategy in marketing dept? Why environment not mentioned? New position, perhaps because market had been US previously – eg 90% of gas turbines sold to US but now 90% abroad.  Fracking produces pessimists and optimists on environment issue – reality is that a lot of stuff is happening, innovations in tech and policy, new reporting requirements – in five years will be industry standards and some regions will have stricter regulations.  Now in TX can frack in city limits and in NY not even in the state. GE believes should develop tech and then drive regulations, US can lead world in this.
  • China’s theft of intellectual property rights a challenge? Yes for all businesses, and China such a large market.  GE in joint venture arrangements in order to get things done – have to evaluate deals in shareholders’ interests.  China getting better in long term, like Korea in 1970s, but now has signed IP agreements.  We have to call them on the carpet when we see violations.
  • US has not built nuclear plants for some time, Germany drawing down nuclear plants, China building?  Experience curve: the more tech you have, to lower the costs.  Have lost a lot of nuclear tech through lack of building – no welding or forging skills left from building old nuclear plants – so now is cost challenged.  Southern Electric has announced new plant to be built – but not many expected.  Low cost gas private sector challenges public nuclear stations also.
  • US oil reserves? Will not be self sufficient, but with Canada and South America could be on par with Middle East.  Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico have great potential.

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    7 February 2012: Bing West, Rand Corporation analyst, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs under Ronald Reagan. A combat Marine infantryman in Vietnam, he has made many trips to Iraq and Afghanistan, often going on patrol with the troops. An award-winning author, he has been called the Thucydides of counterinsurgency.
    Been in combat with 100 units over ten years; 4 books, numerous articles.
    Bing was dean of naval war college, and in his spare time a scuba diver.
    Prepared remarks:
    Subject will be nature of the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan, and the future of war.  Who has done the job and with what accomplishments.
    The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan:
    Photo of fighting across bridge show one soldier who later developed PTSD –affliction will be with us for a long time.
    Afghan fighting is on 1500 miles of border, like AL to ME along Appalachian trail, only higher.  With [requirement to carry] 90 lbs of armor, troops cannot catch up with enemy, hence war will continue very long time.
    President Karzai is not a reliable partner (Ikenberry).
    Photo of heavy vehicle destroyed by IED, shows one is simple to create with a battery, wires and two boards that are pressed together to complete the circuit.  Every patrol needs a metal detector to detect battery before the wood meets.   60% of US casualties are caused that way.
    Video example of nature of small unit combat in Afghanistan, from recent embedded tour.
    [see BingWest.com/videos/ where this streams in Apple QuickTime format]]
    shows British officer, advisor, screaming orders to establish order in small unit combat in Helmand province.  90% of fights occur in 3-5 mins, and the other side breaks contact quickly, then enjoys a sanctuary of 1500 nautical miles.
    Special Forces (SF) have new strategy, and with a surge of troops under Gen. Petraeus, 30,000 troops are now coming out and SF are going to have Afghans do the fighting.  Overhead optics to spot enemy are remarkable [photos] and a marine combat controller (ex pilot) is able to hit the Taliban out of range of small arms (is ex pilot) able to see same picture provided by F-15 pilot and Apache helicopter.
    Nation building is poor strategy.
    Problem of military supplying students [photos] with school supplies.   COIN doctrine. OK but need to prosecute war itself.  90% of Afghans are poorly educated and living in 9th Century.  Giving $6Bn a year is not enough to get them to turn against insurgents from own population.  Did not work in Iraq or Afghan to nation build, but military went too far.  The new Army Field Manual was the first to receive great review in New York Times, by Harvard professor [not a good indicator, to West].
    [Research]: West embedded with a platoon of 45, of which 2 were later killed, 17 were gunshot, and 5 were amputees.  The troops saw themselves as defending America by killing and marking up one stick figure at a time.  [Restricted from shooting enemy unless they picked up a weapon and became a legitimate target].
    This became the wrong war when our strategy became nation building, and when it restricted our soldiers from actions.
    Medal of Honor winner, Cpl. Dakota Meyer. Battle of ____ valley.  US troops were lured by village elders to a tight valley with buildings above them.  100 Afghan soldiers & 15 American advisers, right on Pakistani border in a horseshoe shaped valley, were invited to rebuild a mosque, but were ambushed and surrounded.  Cpl. Meyer, from outside the killing zone, hopped into an armored Humvee with a .50 cal machine gun, from outside circle, charged in 5 or 6 times to shoot targets and rescue the wounded, and used all available 14 tourniquets except his team were already killed.  He came from Mid-KY ‘Daniel Boone’ origins, on a farm, with middle American values, had spent 3 yrs in the US marines, and trained as a sniper.  Ability came both from nature and nuture, as he had been trained to use his courage.  Through training, he reported he did not have to think, just to keep on picking targets and shooting.

    75% of youth are disqualified from military [by lack of HS graduation, criminal record, drugs, other factors], and only 1% choose to go in.  From the greatest generation to the 1% generation – but OK because young military now have technology to back them.

    Lessons slide:
    1. In public and elites’ view, Iraqi war was not worth the cost
    2. The Afghan war has an unpredictable outcome, but predictably will be labeled too costly
    3. US doctrine on Nation Building has failed, a bridge too far
    4. Kabul as a launch pad for attacks against the US is unlikely, and US did drive AQ out of Afghan (but could have finished them quickly [with a proper blocking force high on border]).
    5 Iran looms [risk of war over their nuclear development]
    6 Beyond Iran, a [defense] budget too small
    1. Iraqi war:
    Strategy in Iraq changed from deposing Saddam to creating democratic nation – but need then to have resources to match.  Alawi was running against Malaqi (hard core anti-Sunni, funded by Iran) asked for money to campaign.  Condi & Bush were opposed, should not interfere with election.  Mistake, held back by own ideals.
    2. Afghan war:
    Afghan unpredictable, staggering size of mountains, cannot prevent Taliban sanctuary in Pakistani border, Pakistan not willing to turn up heat.  Wants Afghan government as satrap to them, not connected to India.  Cannot trust Pakistanis, who will continue to give to the Taliban.
    3. Nation Building mistake:
    There is a Chicago-style patronage system for President Karzai till 2014, with local officials trying to get theirs before leaving in 2014.  All depends on Afghan army plus support and trainers.
    [Difficulty of two-track military and diplomatic strategy].  West remembers being with [Sec. James] Schlesinger during fall of Saigon, when Kissinger was cutting deals to extract US.
    5. Iran:
    Israel determined Iran will not get a nuclear weapon; yet Iran wants it badly.  [This would set off an arms race in the Middle East.] Saudis could then buy a Pakistani brigade with nuclear weapons; and Turkey would immediately seek a nuclear weapon.  2030-2040 looks shaky. Israelis indicating now will strike before election.  US President has real incentive to crank up pressure on Iran.
    6. Budget too small:
    Point 6 is the defense budget, which is an insurance policy on wealth and lives.  We have a perfect track record of not predicting the next war.  [US administration is] determined to cut defense budget down to under 4% of GDP because have spent too much on transfer payments.
    We have a terrific military, have overshot a bit in Iraq and in Afghan -- but have accomplished our objectives in Afghanistan.
    Question Time.
    Why repeat the Viet Nam mistake of nation building (hearts & minds)?
     Sense of nationhood that does not exist in rest of world. Last best hope of mankind.  Better to overshoot the runway in Iraq and Afghan sometimes.
    Obama did right thing in Libya and I wish yet in Syria …
    Thucydides reports Athenian loss in Sicily of best troops and treasure – are we in that situation?
    Do Americans lack patience to succeed because want quick war -- like ordering at McDonald’s window? First objective in Afghan should have been to create local army.
    Will spend some money to make sure terrorists do not take an urban center.
    Is Sunni world afraid of Persian designs on Empire?
    Was Reagan’s strategy of balancing Iraq & Iran smarter than Bush strategy of degrading Iraq, leaving Iran more powerful in region? [Question not answered].

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    6 March 2012: Dr. Susan Kaufman Purcell, Director, Center for Hemispheric Policy, University of Miami. A recognized expert on Latin America, she has served as  Vice President of the Council of the Americas.
    Dr. Susan Kaufman Purcell is the Director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. She is a recognized expert on Latin America and has served as Vice President of the Council of the Americas, a non-profit organization of Fortune 500 companies with investments in Latin America, as well as Vice President of the Americas Society. She was also a Senior Fellow and Director of the Latin America Program at the Council on Foreign Relations and was a member of the U.S. Department of State’s Policy Planning Staff under presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
    Prepared remarks: Latin America: The Good the Bad, and the Ugly
    Recent events; the Good
    Formerly changes of regime type (level wing dem >> right wing military regime)
    Now changes of party within same democracy
    Formerly inflation and irresponsible economic policies, now much better economic management, PhDs from elite US universities.  Sophisticated group of economic leaders.
    Increase in social mobility; still a larger proportion of poor people but growing middle classes in Chile and Colombia, therefore more chance of stable, civilian led democracy.
    [The Bad and the Ugly?]
    Chavez days are numbered, a source of evil in some ways, even though he did distribute to poor, because a trouble maker. Anti-democratic, authoritarian US-hating protégé of Castro.  Only 57 years old, and was elected but now an authoritarian leader, following a pattern in Latin America (Ortega, Correia in Ecuador, Morales) use rules of democratic game to gain power in authoritarian direction.
    Countries who supported Chavez, including Cuba, are less supportive now that he may be dying of cancer.  Venezuelan elections are due in October 2012, and although Chavez might cancel them – recently signs of lower fear factor because 3 million came out to support the leading opposition candidate.
    [Economic issues]
    South America has enjoyed growth in last decade (Brazil, Chile, Colombia) from commodities boom.  Payments now to mothers for children have spread income around.
    China’s growth now reduced to 7.5%, and wages increasing – may help Latin America.  Companies have been leaving China for other low wage countries that have less difficult regimes.  Could help Mexico but also some detrimental effects.
    Poor economic times make tensions increase among Latin populations, as among any other.  Commodities boom is slowing; Brazil growth dropped from 7.5$ to 3% recently.  Commodities boom also let Latins sidestep need for reforms of economy.
    Middle income trap: countries get richer, middle class expands, and country then needs reforms for next stage of growth.  But commodities if prices high remove short-term need for reforms.
    Extreme violence began in Colombia; US intervened with Plan Colombia aid but then violence moved to Mexico, which developed from transshipment to base for drug gangs.  About 40,000 dead since President Calderon took office.  Brazil has similar violence rate proportionately.  Honduras has highest murder rate now and spreading to USVI and elsewhere.
    Mexican PRI still leading in polls, but women candidates now rising in polls for opposition.
    W. hemisphere is going to be an energy powerhouse, for example oil shale for US; Argentina and Canada both hold shale too.  Natural gas also found in US and elsewhere.  Brazil sitting on large deposits of oil 5 miles down under hard layer, but by the time they extract, prices may be lower.
    China investing in western oil companies but will learn tech by that means.
    Most optimistic about those countries that already have reached middle income status.
    Question Time
    Argentina gave away its chance and more recently has had economic problems – true? Future of US?
    Political system there doesn’t work since Peron; Kirchner sees herself as modern day Evita.  Labor unions play a large role; colleague told speaker to treat Peronism as the mafia; entrenched interest.  Never integrated well immigrants from Germany, Spain, Italy with local people – each group kept to selves.
    US foreign policy towards Cuba in the past 2 years?
    The embargo made sense when it was put in, after takeover of US companies and Soviet link, Missile crisis.  Cuba run by military dictatorship, everything is part of state economy.  Highly corrupt and defined as left wing only because anti-American.  Policy some argue has not worked for 50 years and argue for engagement, like German ostpolitik to Eastern Europe.  Other side argues (as with Admadinejad recently) engagement with Fidel’s younger brother.  Purcell policy is against lifting embargo because all money would flow to military.  US only country embargoing, others investing in Cuban business, but forced to pay workers via the state at a $1 to 1 peso exchange rate.  Loosen embargo only if money goes into hands of people rather than government.  Private enterprise limited now to small shops but have no means of getting equipped or stocked except by stealing stuff from state or military.
    Free Trade? agreement with Panama could affect all of east coast of western hemisphere.
    President Obama travelled to Asia to include free trade with South Korea and House Republicans wanted to bundle with Panama.  Free trade with Asia is supported to force China to behave better in South China Sea. Next administration (of whichever party) should move ahead with Pacific basin initiative.
    Relations with Brazil?
    New President Dilma Roussef of Brazil started as Marxist guerrilla fighter, but now a better president than Lula, more a manager and technocrat.  Lula was a big spender and more ideological. Roussef having to adjust the economy to new global economic reality.  Best known for anti-corruption efforts.  Colleague pointed out corruption takes a percentgage of available money.  Brazil has free press, muck-raking press that published stories about corrupt cabinet.  8 have resigned, including one at defense who admitted had not voted for Dilma.  Trend is to buy loyalty of various parties in coalition. Dilma has established good relations with the US, but Lula’s ideology got in the way.  Europeans bought just Brazils commodities, but US bought manufactured goods, hence more valuable.  Obama is very popular in Brazil, and relations are improving.
    Threats to US?
    Greatest issue for US foreign policy is threat from violence to democracies in region – contrary to Latin Left [dependencia school], US has actually not wanted to keep the Latins poor.  US wants to trade with growing Latins; and US wants to share intelligence, but that is limited by corruption.  US Southern Command (Miami) is concerned with this and with so many vulnerable small countries on the US southern border.  Scotty Reston, the dean of journalists on Latin America, and a confidant of President Kennedy, famously pronounced that ‘Americans will do anything for Latin America except read about it.’
    The US usually pays more attention to tinderbox areas of the world.  The US is the same with Latin America, for example the good neighbor policy during WW2 was to prevent German and [later] Soviet penetration.  Then [attention returned] with central American wars [1980s] and the debt crisis of 1980s and 1990s.
    Trade issues?
    Bush (41) drove free trade agreements, and some were concluded by W. Bush (43).  Should look at traditionally domestic policies – US actually spends some time on Latin American policy [when broadly understood as ‘intermestic’ issues].
    Venezuela is cooperating with arrests of Anonymous Hackers.  Do we need more Latino workers in US?
    US is alone among industrial countries in not having heavily aging population, and although we do need immigration, I feel strongly we need legal – not illegal – immigration.  We need a functional border, a fixed immigration system and a path to citizenship (amnesty) and this approach of W. Bush is the right approach.  1986 Reagan gave amnesty on basis that border would be closed.  Must make the legal process shorter and more efficient.  Believe strongly in everyone speaking English, but not in expelling those already here.  Mexican population is growing slower and will age from 2015, so less risk of immigration to US.  I have no problem with national identity card, we already have various ID cards, but do need young immigrants for labor force.
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    8 May 2012: Four senior Air War College instructors will report to the Council on their recent trips to various countries of topical interest around the globe as part of the AWC Regional and Cultural Studies Program.

    Moderator: Dr. Mark Conversino, Dean of Academics
    Dr. David Sorenson, Turkey & Egypt
    Dr. Douglas Peifer, Western Europe
    Dr. Xiaoming Zhang, China
    Notes by Trey Taunton, a student at Huntingdon College
    Dr. David Sorenson, Turkey & Egypt
    • Political turmoil in both
    • Geographically close yet different
    • No more Mubarak, now what?
    • Opening for Islam, but from what?
    • 74% of seats in Egyptian parliament is held my Muslims.  Conservative Moderates.
    • The military--running the country, to a point.
    • They run close to 70% of the economy: hotels, etc.
    • Military determines who can run for President.
    • Economy is in shambles.  Very low--subsistence level. Not enough cash on hand.
    • May see first Democratic election soon?
    Turkey, The Islamists & The Military
    Military--controls Turkish party since 1940's
    • Islamist-oriented AKP ruling since 2002
    • Large-scale arrests of Turkish military, active and retired.
    • Civil liberties are being curtailed
    • EU membership application still active, but Turkish leadership looking elsewhere for influence.
    • Turkish power is truly increasing at this moment.
    • Less Military and more Islamist trend.
    Dr. Douglas Peifer, Western Europe
    • Used to be a much more of a familiar place; growing trends do not put US citizens in Europe
    • EU is largest exporter, GDP economy,
    • The Western Europe regional studies course examined the broad sweep of national and international  security in the region, focusing on the interplay between national, European, and trans-Atlantic interests, values, organizations, and policies.
    • Each country has a different role for the EU insofar as national security
    • Trans-atlantic or European future?  Which way should they go?
    • Large cuts in British military budget.
    • Debates over NATO future.
    Dr. Xiaoming Zhang, China
    • Leadership in transition
    • Wang/Bo incident
    • Xi Jinping as China's new leader
    • Economic growth and further reform
    • Chinese reaction to world bank report
    • Possible political reform?
    • China-US relations
    • US pivoting to Asia
    • Regional security from a Chinese perspective
    • Mil-Mil- relations
    • US relations with China were rocky--affected the trip by War College
    • Economic growth is slowing for one of the first times in years
    • National owned banks, railroads, etc. are essential for successful Chinese economic reform in next 20 years
    • People's Congress met in March 2012.  China is a one party nation, but not a one person rule.  Much like a Board of Trustees for a Corporation.
    • Chinese concern about the US new policy of "pivoting to Asia"
    Question Time

    • Japanese relevance?  United States has taken a neutral stance on all Japanese issues.
    • NATO vs Turkey in relation to Syria

    • Syria is badly divided in many ways. The Baath party has held the country together since 1960s.
    • Turkey is worried about a destabilization of Syria.
    • All agree that any remedy to Syria situation would probably not have a good outcome.
    • Syria will most likely fight for a long time, both sides are in it for the end.
    • NATO-- relations between French and Turkey are abysmal. And those  are the most outspoken about Syria and are NATO allies.
    Who represents their countries in Air War College?
    • Many of our allies:  46 fellows representing 45 countries are present.
    • We always have more requests than seats available.
    Africa:  Where does it stand?
    • Definitely depends on Geographic location.
    • Students have been sent to Western Africa recently.
    • Usually a question of resources.
    • Graduates of the Air War College are in key places around the world and influence local political and military decisions.
    IRAN:  Intentions?
    • Israelites--two leading parties blended together against attacking Iran alone.
    • They more than likely are building a nuclear weapon, however they are containable and deterrable.  They know the US stance against proliferation and nuclear safe-havens.
    France--Hollande now President of France
    • Will still hold true to Franco-German alliance.
    • These two countries make up the heart of the EU project.

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