Notes
of guest speaker events at ALWAC
by
Jeremy Lewis, PhD
Speeches,
2018-19
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CONTENTS
NOTES ON SPEAKERS, 2018-2019
All programs are from 5:30 - 7:30 pm, Gold Room, 2nd Floor, Whitley Hall,
Troy University Montgomery, 231 Montgomery St. Montgomery, AL
Tuesday 11 September
2018: Dr. Pano Yannakogeorgos, “A World at War With Itself: The Cyber
Threat and Globalization”
Technological
advancement has resulted in a compression of time and space. The
consequence has meant an unprecedented global interconnectedness and
interdependence never before known among peoples and locales. A
vulnerable and unstable cyberspace infrastructure is the critical
underpinning of this hyper-interconnection. The integrity of this domain
is essential to national security, public safety, and modern civic
intercourse worldwide. The aim of this talk is to familiarize the
audience with conflict that takes form in cyberspace. It is always
evolving, the terrain is blurred between public and private entities,
the weaponry is in a constant state of upgrade, and adversaries are
indistinct and ubiquitous.
Dr. Pano Yannakogeorgos (Ph. D. Rutgers University) is the founding Dean
of the Air Force Cyber College at Air University. His expertise includes
the intersection of cyber power, national security, and military
operations; international cyber policy; and Eastern Mediterranean
security. His most recent publication is The
Cyber Threat and Globalization: The Impact to National and
International Security (Rowman Littlefield, 2018).
Prepared remarks
Cyberspace,
Globalization and Prosperity
Physical
barriers no longer limit connected activity, unlike in Alexander the
Great’s empire [map].
Character
of cyberspace:
Connectivity
required
Does
have national borders like any other domain
Not
likely to have military control of the whole battlefield.
Internet
penetration trends increasing between 2010 and 2016 [on side by side
charts].
Mobile
broadband has become more affordable of fixed broadband in countries
below top level of income.
15-24
age cohort coming into internet, and most involved age in cyberattacks.
Same age
that military, corporate and criminal organizations seek to recruit.
Operational
tech increasingly connected e.g. for power grids, reduces costs.
But
remote control increases vulnerability.
Internet
of Things (IOT) to alleviate hunger, increase health care [image of
solar powered wifi enabled soil moisture sensor to farmers; improves
human condition in poorer world but vulnerable].
Transport
vehicles of all kinds now mean millions of lines of code.
Cyber
vulnerabilities and Threat proliferation
Microprocessor;
software rushed out before tested for vulnerability.
Exploits
known and unknown.
Zero-day
exploit; exploit kit; markets for selling exploits; tools for finding
vulnerable systems.
Shodan:
a search engine for vulnerable things.
Searches
lead to Advisory notices being circulated as warning.
Heartbleed
exploit of SSL layer; as of today thousands of devices vulnerable in US
alone.
Access
vector is people: spearphishing.
Modern
botnets from networks of compromised machines.
Used for
spam, DDoS, stealing data, fraud – but taken down via their Command and
Control (C & C).
US has
robust criminal law enforcement to disrupt criminal threats.
Spies
are now joined by groups trying to disrupt political activity.
Full
spectrum attacks are only feasible by nation state actors.
Solution
is for IT sector to build more robust defenses.
Anonymous
not a network but a loose set of tribes around the world, hacktivists
trying to change political practices.
AP 2013
falsely tweeted explosion at WH, stock market affected – Syrian E-army
used phishing attack.
Surface
web is small compared to dark web hacker networks.
TOR can
create alternative domain name in onion network.
Criminal
activity using bitcoin and blockchain to avoid law enforcement.
International
response to investigation.
Investigation
finds Belarus a black hole, Aussie cooperative and EU protective of
privacy rights.
Spies
stealing corporate secrets for profit. Hacking into banks.
Terrorist
misuse of web. US using law enforcement tools to pressure foreign state
hackers.
Russians
2007 attacked Estonia that uses online ID card, crippling country for a
time. NATO however responded by setting up a cyber center in Estonia.
Perceptions
issue. Who downed the MH17 Malaysian Boeing? Estonians answered
according to whether watching Russian TV and most said USA responsible.
Maersk
shipping line, Ukrainian power system.
Spanish
C-130 lost when essential files were accidentally wiped.
2014
Iranians indicted for DDoS attacks on hydro-electric systems.
IT
industry now developing more secure products.
Question Time
Strategies
all defensive – what about US hostile approach? Best is still
defensive, reducing vulnerabilities, keep military trained for going
back to basics using paper if system disrupted.
EU Data
Protection Regulations? A cultural angle. OPM was breached but response
was that breach did not result in losses. Same with Experian. Europe
different because of sensitivity to 1930s when governments caused harm
to citizens. Cookie notices are result of GDPR.
What is
cyber equivalent of nuclear deterrent? Defense science board report
2013: deterrence by punishment, denial and resilience. Attributing
actions to individuals is difficult but used as a deterrent. PETYA went
worldwide but not controlled. Nation states use proxies to hide their
tracks, so hard to counter attack them with force. Should not take
aggressive action because US is vulnerable.
What is
the impact of different media outlets on end of net neutrality on
underlying infrastructure.
What is
happening in Montgomery? Gunther annex is base of defense info systems,
a key hub for internet activity. Corporate internet exchange locally to
speed business connections.
Next
generation internet (5G) is more than previous increases in speed, is
revolutionary change in tech – and for first time, China
leading this stage – previously US and Europe vying for tech
generations.
Lawyers
will be able to protect consumers from insecure products and companies
that suffer breaches.
Tuesday 16 October 2018: Dr. Grant Hammond, “The
Revolution in Security Affairs” [Brought forward to here]
Over the last twenty years, the ends, ways and means of providing for
national security have changed dramatically as the result of a
combination of changes in the strategic landscape and technology. We are
in an era of “unrestricted warfare” declared by China in 1999 in which
we are in competition, conflict and combat 24/7/365 around the globe, in
space and cyber space. This presentation will examine how and why this
has happened as it has and the implications, now and in the future.
Dr. Grant Hammond (PhD SAIS, Johns Hopkins University) recently retired
from the USAF Center for Strategy and Technology after 29 years of
federal service and as President of ALWAC. He is the author of 3 books (Countertrade
Offset and Barter in International Political Economy; Plowshares into
Swords: Arms Races in International Politics; The Mind of War: John
Boyd and American Security), editor of a fourth (John Boyd’s
Discourse on Winning and Losing) and has two more in progress. One
is on this topic and the other on Crisis Decision Making in the
Nixon Administration in October 1973.
Prepared remarks
Began with a brief video. At CST, living in the future for twenty years.
The development of tech, Sagan style to show expanding horizons and
empowered individuals.
Revolutions in Tech and their impacts [slide]
C19th industrial Revolution
C20th total war
Numeracy, algorithms, big data, automation
Big shift [slide]
robotics revolution
C21st digital rev and AI super-computing
Integrated circuit (IC) chip and internet by 1990
2007 smartphone, empowerment of non-state actors
Tech adoption rates [slide] time taken for 25% of US pop to adopt each
technology – smartphones only took 5 years, dramatically shorter than
previous technologies in the home.
FANG corporations (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google)
Google created in 1998, Facebook in 2004, YouTube in 2005
Transparency [slide] now we can see the rest of the iceberg. Hard to
keep strategic secrets.
Kenyan tribesmen with cell phones [slide] and doing cellphone banking is
common there.
Facebook by 2017 had 2.13 Bn users (1/3 of humans). Zuckerberg had 1 Bn
more followers than the Pope.
YouTube: 1.3 Bn users watch 6 Bn hours of video [daily?]. [slide]
Everything is “Glocal” now, both Global and local. [slide]
Hyundai in AL allowed to export to Mexico under NAFTA. [Other examples
given].
Cuban relations when questionable made manufacturers in AL nervous
because it was an emerging market.
IOT [slide] by 2020 likely 50Bn devices. Many devices in each home will
be connected soon. One demo has hacked a computer from a refrigerator.
Infrastructure connected.
Who provides security against what threats? [slide]
Progression from Soldier> malware defenses> metal detectors >
bio sensors?
Bio attack (by bacteria or virus that has been weaponized) is the most
likely threat even though nonlethal, because cheap and easy to develop
and hard to attribute – and if nobody dies, is it really war?
Unrestricted warfare [slide]
China will compete by non-military, military and trans-military means,
and cyber spans them all.
“Lawfare” like warfare, involves Chinese sponsored conferences on the
internet, invites Liliputian microstates and UN, then get majority vote
of members that has effect of a UN resolution.
Do other countries have to play the game the same way?
1s and zeros can be deadly [slide] can turn off equipment in hospitals,
airports and power grids; even cars, having multiple computers, are
hackable.
Biological threats [slide] map of health threats, viri and fevers that
are known. But smallpox can be mail ordered and using CRISPR9, a
scientist can tweak them to attack specific types of people.
Global data flows [slide] a zeta byte is 1 with 21 zeros, total of all
books in Library of Congress.
Changing nature of military intelligence [slide] from tiny percent
classified to overwhelmingly open source – e.g., tweet in real time from
a civilian about a helicopter over Abbottabad during Bin Laden raid.
Networks and messaging [slide]
Tribalism and Truth Decay [RAND] by Cavanaugh and Rich. Human society,
experiments with kids 4-6, into red and blue tee shirts, show video and
ask them what they think of people with red and blue shirts in video.
Kids evaluate the subjects according to color of tee shirt. Universal
phenomenon.
Mattis [slide] quote, “capturing perceptions of foreign audiences” is
new alternative to terrain.
Old warfare [slide] breaking things and killing people.
The new pen is real time streaming video shared to military purpose.
Harder to kill an idea, mightier than sword. Primacy counts. He who
posts first, wins.
Non-kinetic, non-lethal warfare [slide] 3.7 Bn have access to Internet,
¼ of humanity has Facebook account, 500 M tweets per day, 7 hrs of
consumers’ video uploaded per second.
David Parikarakotas, War in 140 characters book, about
Ukraininan woman who started housewives’ group online to supply
Ukrainian brigades with coats and basic needs.
Cognitive warfare and assault on knowledge [slide] perception of reality
is most contested battle-space. Extreme partisan views, confusion, “what
about?”.
Tom Nichols, The Death of Expertise. Book. Reports are not true
unless you choose to believe.
Fake news, alternative facts, the big lie.
Johnathan Swift quote [slide] 1710. “Falsehood flies, and the truth
comes limping after it, so that when men come to be undeceived, it is
too late …”
Old war not going away, but less affordable, less prevalent. Wars in
cold war were on periphery and by proxy.
New weapons are small, swift, cheap, remote, robotic – unlike US
practice of holding big, costly long-term weapons systems.
Security no longer left to law enforcement.
Leon Trotsky “you may not be interested in war, but war is interested in
you.”
Big Question of Future [slide]
Perhaps 38% of US jobs may disappear by 2040 (c.f. 10% is considered a
recession, 20% is a depression).
Destined to be replaced by automation: Truck drivers, forklift truck
operators, checkout counters, and many others.
Question Time
We are largely silent observers in this process.
Is there still truth? There are standards of what constitutes truth and
either act with integrity to support that or not.
Jobs to be gained? True, but at present we have 7 M jobs unfilled for
lack of skills, and a bar on immigration. Future jobs will not convert
truck drivers to computer jobs.
Program took WV coal miners kids and taught them to code – unfortunately
was cancelled.
Guaranteed minimum wage for employed or unemployed – a bad idea in a
capitalist society.
Positive solutions?
Invest in public education and mid-career retraining programs, carefully
designed.
Director of cybersecurity in White House, unfortunately, was eliminated
in May.
Is war outdated as a way to settle disputes? Too expensive now to wage
war. Arms race with USSR without using weapons was not so expensive. DOD
is more an offensive department than defensive. One of two unarmed
interceptors on 9/11 was flown by women whose father was flying for AA.
Google just declined to work for DOD projects – what if others do
likewise?
CRISPR kits available for low prices ($140, according to audience
member). Even though US is vulnerable and needs cyber defense, must
develop offensive cyber capabilities.
Stefan Schlüter, “Rising
Anti-Semitism and Populism in Europe,” Luncheon speaker (special event),
Thursday, 10/18/18
Schlüter is the Program Director, Diplomatic Academy in Berlin. He is a
former German Consul General and will also address US-German relations.
Sponsored by the American Council for Germany
Prepared remarks
Recent history of Jews in Germany
In 1934 there were 550K Jews in Germany, though many left before 1939;
many hid.
In 1945 15K Jews were left and some arrived in displaced person camps.
Grew slowly till 1990s, 30K. 1991, Berlin Wall came down and many
Eastern European Jews went to either Israel or Germany.
Now about 120K in congregations, 200K in total, mostly from Russia. Some
young Israelis in Berlin staying from months to years.
Diplomatic relations established with Golda Meir’s government in 1964.
In 1950s under the radar, although Germany forbidden by US to sell arms
to Israel, gave them free.
Special relationship because not merely diplomatic but friendship. 600K
Germans and Israeli student exchange, city, university and army
partnerships. Tall ship of navy visited Israel 1988.
Cabinet meets annually in Jerusalem or Germany with Israeli
counterparts.
Modern problems of anti-Semitism.
No less than in other European countries. Some on right but also some on
Left. Immigrants from Middle East do arrive with hatred of Jews.
2017 about 1500 felonies anti-Semitic, painting Swastikas type – but
growth is in attacks on Jews, 98% by young arrivals from Middle East.
New post of commissioner to try to reduce these.
Huge task to integrate refugees from Middle East. 850K immigrants
arrived in two weeks, very hard to manage. No vetting, surprised Bill
Kristol. Yes, terrorists came in with asylum seekers, but have many
other means of entry. Difficult to check on refugees from war-torn
areas. Some immigrants do bring totally different set of values and
attitudes to LGBT and women. Giving language and customs classes. Many
problems with family treatment of girls, etc.
Denmark: usual for all parents to let kids be taken to free pre-school,
made available to all – but NYT criticized it as tearing kids away from
Muslim parents.
AfD has 94 seats in 600-member Bundestag (parliament) [and 7/96 in
European Parliament – ed] but for now far away from having to be
concerned.
Question Time
25% of influx of refugees are already employed or in training programs
from 2015 intake. Some of the rest do have poor education and language
skills.
Merkel did not actually open the border but decided not to close the
border; and had liberal asylum laws (orig. for Jews) and refugees.
Hoping a substantial portion can return home after war runs down.
Economic refugees though have attraction to benefits – but still expect
some to return home.
The 75% not engaged do have government housing and benefits at the same
level as German citizens.
Sadly, insult of “you Jew” is an insult once again, e.g., in schools.
Commissioner trying to refine statistics, to separate (many) painting
signs from (few) physical attacks.
Reaction to rise of Trump and nationalism? Germany does not criticize US
over slavery, but Germans were shocked by Trump’s good people on both
sides comment after Charlottesville.
New US ambassador in Berlin announced he would support populist
movements – another shock. Also Steve Bannon set up office in London to
do same.
AfD not strongly anti-Semitic and has a group of Jews within
organization. Likewise, in French FN.
Merkel now in office 16 years and was expecting to step down before 2016
– but refugee crisis prevented that, did not want to leave after the
decision of immigrants.
AfD found more on economic populism against Euro and power in Brussels –
but slowly edged out by radicals.
Many Germans felt refugees were guests and reluctant to tell them
values. Forced marriages, equality of women, primacy of religion in
life. Belief in executing those who renounce Islam.
New CSU governor of Bavaria decreed cross displayed in every government
office.
Violent incidents very small number but committed by immigrants; nearly
all incidents are nonviolent and not increasing.
Incidents in UK after Brexit vote against foreigners surged.
Thursday 15 November 2018, change of speaker and
date: Dr. Joshua Busby, "Climate Change and National Security: What Do
We Know?"
Joshua Busby is a distinguished scholar at the Strauss Center,
nonresident fellow with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, and a
senior research fellow at the Center for Climate & Security, LBJ
School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin. Dr. Busby has
published widely on climate change, global health, transnational
advocacy movements and U.S. foreign policy for various think tanks and
academic journals, including International Security, International
Studies Quarterly, Security Studies and Perspectives on
Politics. His first book, Moral Movements and Foreign Policy,
was published by Cambridge University Press in 2010. His second book, AIDS
Drugs for All: Social Movements and Market Transformations, with
co-author Ethan Kapstein, was published by Cambridge University Press in
2013 and won the 2014 Don K. Price Award (the American Political Science
Association’s award for the best book on science, technology and
environmental politics). He was one of the lead researchers on a
five-year, $7.6 million project funded by the Department of Defense
called “Climate Change and African Political Stability” (CCAPS). He is
the principal investigator of another DOD-funded project, “Complex
Emergencies and Political Stability in Asia” (CEPSA) — a three-year,
$1.9 million grant. Dr. Busby is a life member in the Council on Foreign
Relations. He received his Ph.D. in political science in 2004 from
Georgetown University.
Prepared remarks
Busby,
who emphasizes he is a political scientist, not a natural scientist, has
been a reviewer on the NSC assessment of climate change.
Recently
his article on which these remarks are based, has been published in Foreign
Affairs.
Temperature
anomalies since 1980 have been increasingly common, on track for average
to be 2 degrees Fahrenheit above the century's average.
Emissions
have been dramatically increasing [the "hockey stick" effect graph]
GlobalChange.gov
graph of increasing average global surface temperature on land and sea.
National
security threats traditionally come from one state to another -- but a
better definition is a problem so severe as to be existential.
Climate
change poses both direct and indirect threats.
Direct
threats:
Low-lying
islands are facing a sea level rise as early as 2040.
Some
seats of government are vulnerable to severe coastal weather.
Arctic
resources are already subject to disputes over flag-planting, sea lane
control and hydrocarbon resources.
Half of
US bases will have to be adapted to climate change, including Norfolk,
VA.
Military
resources are being diverted to internal threats of hurricanes and
fires. Storm Harvey in Texas took 700 vehicles, many helicopters and
thousands of personnel.
Puerto
Rico was left without power for months after hurricane Maria. 20,000
soldiers served in logistics, water supply, ports and airports, but
still about 3,000 civilians died. Delivered 1.4 million meals [slide].
Pakistani
floods killed 2,000, where US sent $390 Million in relief.
Typhoon
Haiyan brought a US response of 2400 tons of relief supplies.
Indirect:
Climate
change is a threat multiplier, as in NSC's 2008 exercise, NIA.
Navy
climate change roadmap, 2009
ODNI
water security report, 2012
All of
these report there will be problems and stresses over the next couple of
decades, but not extremely risky till 2030 or 2040.
Arctic
strategy, 2013
QDR 2014
DOD
Adaptation Roadmap 2014 -- expects further need for relief missions
Presidential
Memo Sep. 2016, Climate Change and National Security
2017
Gen. Mattis testimony
2018
NDAA "Climate Change is a direct threat to the national security of the
US."
DNI
Coates: long-term trends ... likely to fuel economic and social
discontent, and possibly upheaval, through 2018.
What do
we know? Academic works
IPCC
Fifth Assessment: "Evidence on effects ... is contested." There is
little academic agreement about the direct effects.
[Beyond
this point, our file of copious notes was damaged and unreadable.
Apologies to our readers.]
Question
time
[There followed a lively exchange; unfortunately this section of the
notes was also damaged and unreadable.]
Tuesday 12 February
2019: Dr. William "Drew" Wagstaff, "China Ascendant"
China has grown rapidly since the late 1970s when Deng Xiaoping first
began implementing radical reforms. Today, China challenges the United
States militarily in the region and diplomatically around the world. How
are we to understand this rise? This presentation provide the context
for understanding what China’s growth means for the international
community, how Chinese leaders view their place in the world and what
problems they must surmount to achieve those goals.
Dr. William “Drew” Wagstaff (PhD, Emory University) is an Assistant
Professor of International Security for the Blue Horizons Program within
the USAF Center for Strategy and Technology at Maxwell AFB. Dr. Wagstaff
has a number of on-going research projects on terrorism, military
effectiveness, peacekeeping, and Chinese politics. Proficient in
Mandarin, Dr. Wagstaff has enjoyed traveling China, including cities
such as Wuxi, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Tianjin, and Beijing.
Tuesday 12 March 2018:
Dr. Adam Segal, “Technology and Innovation”
Segal holds the Ira A. Lipman Chair in Emerging Technologies and
National Security; and is Director of the Digital and Cyberspace Policy
Program, Council on Foreign Relations CFR).
An expert on security issues, technology development, and Chinese
domestic and foreign policy, Segal was the project director for the
CFR-sponsored independent task force report Defending an Open,
Global, Secure and Resilient Internet. His book, The Hacked
World Order: How Nations Fight, Trade Maneuver and Manipulate in the
Digital Age (Public Affairs, 2016) describes the increasingly
contentious geopolitics of cyberspace. His work has appeared in the Financial
Times, The Economist, Foreign Policy, The Wall Street Journal, and
Foreign Affairs, among others. He currently writes for the blog,
"Net Politics."
Prepared remarks
Question Time
Tuesday 9 April
2018: Michael Slobodchikoff and G. Doug Davis, “Decline of the Liberal
International Order”
Was
to have been Ms. Sarah Chayes, "Corruption and its impact"
Senior Fellow, Democracy, Conflict and Governance, Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace.
Sarah Chayes is the author of Thieves of State: Why Corruption
Threatens Global Security. She is internationally recognized for
her innovative thinking on corruption and its implications. Her work
explores how severe corruption can help prompt such crises as terrorism,
revolutions and their violent aftermaths and environmental degradation.
Before joining the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Chayes
served as special assistant to the top US military officer, Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen. She focused on governance
issues, participating in cabinet-level decision-making on Afghanistan,
Pakistan and the Arab Spring; and traveling with Mullen frequently to
these regions. Chayes was tapped for the job after her work as special
adviser to two commanders of the international troops in Afghanistan
(ISAF), at the end of a decade on the ground there.
Unfortunately, Ms. Chayes was called away shortly before, but has
volunteered to present in our fall 2019 program.
Michael Slobodchikoff and G. Doug Davis, “Decline of the
Liberal International Order”
Introduction: New book’s subtitle is Russian soft power in Eastern Europe.
Final program will be from AWC, Dawn Murphy, Dave Sorenson, with Bruce
Kleiner from DOS.
Lecture
Slob.
Fall of Berlin wall was seen at time as the triumph of liberalism, end
of history – but a few years later, resurgence in Russia, China and
elsewhere.
The lesson of history is that no
Empire lasts forever and most rot from within.
Davis. Liberal order of democracy and
cap postwar is in jeopardy, with nationalism rising in many governments
of the world. So what is liberal order, in international politics.
Liberalism says individuals are valued over other actors in society.
Long time benchmark of foreign policy. Why so many actors working
against it? Trump’s election marked in 2016 a watershed because he ran
successfully against the liberal system. Internally and externally, what
are the causes and consequences?
S. Value of individual over that of
the collective. Has provided military and financial aid, and urged them
to adopt democracy and cap even though they are more collective in
nature, and feel that their cultural identity, religion, language begins
to erode identity. They begin to reject outsiders and bring back
cultural symbols, schools in their own language for example.
Post USSR we offered security in
Eastern Europe in return for cultural ethos of West.
D. we say democracy limits government
but the voice in Polish society of Cath church declines. Poles viewed
the primate of Warsaw as legitimate head rather than CP head of state.
They may feel that Northern Poland now is more like Scandinavia, and
there is a backlash.
S. Poles also felt threat from
Russia, so accepting security as a choice.
Q. Effect of missiles to defend
Turkey? Turkey is one of the countries with backlash. Trying to play
both sides to see which order will continue. Local populations as well
as leaders are re-evaluating.
D. Elements of global order.
Individualism in Eastern Europe. Materialism, secularism, relativism.
Birth rate down, so demographic crisis since 1989. Western values have
fundamentally altered society in Eastern Europe and our values have
declined there compared to 1990s.
S. Which country is greatest threat
to world? This year in France and Germany, US is top threat to world –
huge shift in thinking among our closest allies.
D. Sacrifices made by Eastern Europe
to get NATO membership has led to Russian hybrid warfare to avoid
triggering Article 5. Now polls in Europe show not willing to fight for
Eastern Europe.
Domestically, Americans may not be
willing forever to protect Europeans not willing to protect themselves,
so their welfare states are being subsidized by US. Germany rich
country, yet has only one functioning plane of some models. Poland
policy has been not to trust Europe but to get American troops on ground
in Poland. So Trump not the only factor in change.
Sacrifices they made for years have
not yielded the security they intended.
Book is trying to figure out why
states are pushing back against order.
S. Mike Hayden said a year ago to
ALWAC battle is going on for new world order – and we agree.
Scenarios:
1)
Unlikely China and Russia will become members of liberal order.
2) More nationalist parties are
winning elections and traditional allies deserting US.
3) Russia and China might propose
an alternative world order
D. Chas Freeman says we have not
advanced our agenda over the last several administrations, with a
coherent strategy. Yes – likely we will see more opposition to our
initiatives, though I still have faith in liberal democracy.
Question Time
Were we
in US coasting on soft power, and what could we do more? S. Putin says
the US spends far more on defense but US has no guiding light for order.
D. Hannah Arendt says we fail to see reality of consequences of policies
we put in place. Judge policy not by ideology and interests but by
results.
Instances of Eastern Europe NATO
allies pushing back of American initiatives? Sale of weapons – trying to
persuade allies not to buy weapons from Russia but Turkey has recently
tried to buy S-300 SAMs. Asked allies not to join Asian Development Bank
– but some have. We have conducted exercises with Philippines but
Russians have sailed right in. Italy has accepted end of Belt and Road.
NATO had to reinvent itself at end of
cold war, evolved into a very different organization.
Q. is Trump’s election a rejection of
policies or a rejection of ideology? Is Erdogan of Turkey following
Muslim agenda rather than rejecting West? We agree with that.
Fracking, demographics, framework of
… Russians would have to take Balkans in next few years before lose
numbers of army – and China has excess young men to put to use in army?
S. Russia will instead specialize in hacking, which they can do – cannot
face US in long battle, so can only prick US around edges. China is a
threat to Russia and they have fought border wars. But we have used both
against each other and they are now being brought together by our
policies.
To what degree is Eastern Europe
chaos part of Russian policy rather than a more natural decline of
Western influence? D. Both but Russians have played their cards well and
US has poorly. Russians don’t care who wins as much as promoting
instability. We have social weaknesses and expose ourselves to
outsiders. S. Russian “What Aboutism” – when criticized, point out US
civil rights issues. Very good at finding hot-button issues.
Any solutions? S. Begin conversation
about our own philosophies. Different game strategy.
Book available on Amazon already.
Gen Givhan: Ed Bridges also has a new book published, a history of
Alabama. At the turn of the century, there were problems of the highways,
prisons, education, and health care – then as now.
Tuesday 7 May: Air War College Professors, Regional
Reports
The last program each year is a report from professors at the Air War
College on visits to different areas of the world as part of the
Regional and Cultural Studies portion of the curriculum. Three
professors will report on their findings from their travel in March
and entertain your questions.
Chris
Hemmer, Dean of AWC, introduced speakers.
David Sorenson, Israel and UAE
Missed
the rocket attacks. Both wealthy countries in a region of contrasts in
income. So many cranes, new buildings but extraordinarily different.
Israel had a lively election going – whereas UAE makes no pretension of
democracy.
Both heavily invested in by China –
unclassified security agreement. Ports: new port in UAE gets more US
navy ships than any other in world; true also of Haifa. US concerned
that info gathering is part of activity. Israel had 17% Arabs and
Muslims; yet pretty stable, little disorder among Arabic speakers. UAE
minority is citizens (10%) and most are expatriate workers. Mall of
Emirates is largest, full of foreign workers.
Village of Israel is in view of
Lebanon and Syria – dangerous neighborhood; UAE has Iranians around them
including Yemen. So now Israel and UAE collaborating and each side had
compliments about the other.
Both have highly professional
military, first rate, and both include women; lead UAE pilot against IS
targets was a woman.
President Trump announced US embassy
would move; sort of happened. They removed sign of consulate and
replaced it with Embassy sign. Built in former monastery so not
practical to actually run embassy there, still at Tel Aviv.
Dawn Murphy, Change from last year, on
People's Republic of China (PRC) and DPRK (North Korea).
Last
year, nuclear tests, then reached out to South and announced summit with
Trump and pause in nuclear tests and Long Range Missile tests. 2018 June
Trump Kim summit in Singapore.
This year second summit, but Trump
walked out early, before AWC tour arrived.
Last year optimism about peaceful
trajectory.
24,000 troops still in ROK (South
Korea).
SK balancing between US and China.
China has used economic coercion. THAAD being deployed by SK, when
Chinese blocked Chinese tourists from traveling to SK.
Turning point for SK. DPRK trajectory
is unknown. US presses SK and moves to more protectionist policy.
US is categorizing China as a
revisionist and a rival with political and economic competition.
Increased concern with VP Pence’s
phrase 'whole of government'.
Economic tensions. Tariffs now cover
50% of Chinese experts to US, and 85% of US exports to China. Threat now
to raise US tariffs again, midnight Thurs-Fri 9-10 May coming.
Economic tensions bleeding into
political tensions.
Belt and Road economic but also
political dimension, primary foreign policy initiative, accused by US of
being debt-trap diplomacy.
Chinese crackdown on human rights;
extra-legally interned 1 M Uighurs for re-education. State Dept recently
called them concentration camps.
Trump admin more pre-Taiwan than some
previous administrations.
China emphasizing that political
relationship could be a stabilizer, surprisingly. Visit with People's
Liberation Army (PLA) was based on cooperative theme.
Bruce Kleiner, Chile and Argentina
AWC
alumni I Chile were all Generals, who referred to “Air Golf college”,
which they loved.
Formerly I Cuba when they also swapped
out a sign from “interest section” to “embassy”.
Military-Military relations also
interesting in Cuba, whose national security staff were interested in
communications and cooperation, not only on counter-narcotics,
migration.
Chile and Argentina.
Analytical lenses of globalization
used for each country in class. Violent extremist organizations now can
communicate and coagulate with global communications. Citizen buy-in to
government and government services to citizens. Regional power
competition. Nationalism.
Robert Kaplan, Revenge of Geography,
book. Geography works against importance of Latin America. Buenos Aires
close to Lisbon than to NYC, and three hours ahead of AL. Many areas
underpopulated. Few challenges from other powers to US dominance of
region.
Interested to see whether China has
made inroads into Latin America with New Silk Road.
Chile in OECD and signed Belt and Road
Initiative. Chileans though are extremely attentive to world events and
drawn a line at their border. China is major importer of Chilean Lithium
and Copper but Chile participates in RimPac exercises with US and has
disciplined military force with F-16 fleet. Military gets 10% of copper
export stream, independent of general taxation. Their shock jock radio
shows are actually all about exports of copper.
Foreign Service Officer on 3-year tour
with AWC. One previous post was with Paraguay, and did compare, but
Chilean wine has really improved over recent years, better now than
Argentina’s.
Argentina most interesting through
lens of state strength; took overland trip through Andes, with dramatic
subduction of the Pacific plate.
Peron was a sort of
Nationalist-socialist and still 25% of workforce in public sector –
contrast with Chile’s low percentage of state. Present leader
trying to bring economy to order but facing re-election campaign with
pressure to increase public spending, and structures have been in
Argentina for a long time. Chile more business friendly and Argentina
does have some pressure from business right. No middle ground in
Argentine taxis.
Chile very interested in international
institutions. Argentina favorability ratings of US very low, only one
above Pakistan – and antipathy to western institutions. Cristina de
Kirchner (Peronist) did have some relations with US but a minister then
complained about US eavesdropping equipment and shut down relations with
military again.
Did visit Ushaia at Southern end. Us
is interested in the competition in the Antarctic. Chinese fishing
fleets rival SK fleets, Malvinas/Falklands.
Question Time
Argentine
economic crisis and corruption in government? C de K is protected by
parliamentary immunity as a Senator. Wide gap in professionalism between
Chile and Argentina. Unlike Chile, Argie military discredited by
internal war and then Malvinas.
China is frying other fish in other
parts of world, including Middle East and Central Asia but did get a
space listening station agreement in Patagonia, without transparency –
so may not be just another observatory in that area.
Middle East reports of provocations by
Iran? Yes, Iran lost belief in viability of nuclear agreement and has
fewer resources than other powers regionally, has relied upon proxies
for years; clerics are unpopular with public and have been physically
assaulted sometimes; reformist candidate took majority of vote, and
economic problems under sanctions and corruption. Iran fears US strike
(carrier battle group recently moved in) but would not want to provoke a
war. Not particularly alarmed by sudden US deployment.
Chinese investment in ports? Contrast
with the Panama canal, where the myth of Chinese running canal faces the
reality that they are running ports outside canal. Business or security
decision? Both. As with Turkey, China is pursuing both good business and
long term influence and listening stations.
What direction will China take with
assertion of power? Yes, some assertion in South China Sea, but whether
they are concerned with retention of historic narrative of status quo.
Their military investment is proportionate to growth of GDP, needing
much modernization to defend. Recently putting money in to asymmetric
capability, anti-sat and cyber forces. China opened first base in
Djibouti, but generally had little military presence abroad.
Muslims in Israel treated better than
in Muslim countries? Disagree generally; do have voting rights, though
not represented proportionately, have only 11 seats for 17% of them.
Nationalism rising among Israelis, 20% of them wasn’t to exclude Muslims
from Israel even when citizens. Can build mosques in Israel unlike
Switzerland.
Small Christian population in Israel,
less than 2% and mostly in Jerusalem – but most left well before Israel
was founded. Aging, with small Protestant, mostly Orthodox, churches –
and sometimes in tension with each other. Doors to church of one rival
sect held by two trusted Muslims.
Special Programs and other Activities
Spring term, offered late January - mid March, the
FPA's Great Decisions Program
Register
at ALWAC.org for this seminar series, featuring excellent readings
and lively, local speakers. Topics and study booklets (with expert
articles, maps and photos) are produced by the Foreign Policy
Association and published the first week in January. The program
begins in 23 January and runs for 8 consecutive weeks, on
Wednesdays, 2-3:30 pm, with approximately 20 enthusiastic
people participating. Location is 106 Bartlett Hall, behind
our usual Whitley building at 231 Montgomery St. Discussion leaders
come from the faculty of Air University and other local colleges.
Collaboration with Global Ties Alabama
an
educational, charitable institution based in Huntsville which
assists the U. S. Department of State in arranging and hosting
participants in the Fulbright Scholars exchange and visitors program
and placing visiting groups of scholars and students with those in
the local area for dinners or brief home stays as they visit the
Capitol, historic sites in the Montgomery area, the Southern Poverty
Law Center, the Alabama Shakespeare Festival and local universities.
Interaction with some of the International Officers stationed at
Maxwell AFB for a year and their families
Revised 12/30/18 by Jeremy Lewis
