Prepared remarks
Opportunities to promote US values and
interests, and to protect things of value to US.
1. Rise of other states and non-state actors
has profound impact on foreign policy. ‘The rise of the rest.’
India and China, on recent visits, both give sense of dynamic.
Mexico and Chile likewise. Rise of groups from ISIS and
international criminal gangs.
2. Huge problems of demography around world:
immigration, youth (who will do the work in next generation?)
Refugees, e.g in Syria of internally displaced people.
3. Growing discontent of populations with
government. E.g. Arab spring, Brexit, France and US. Growing
conflict over philosophy of global order created and protected
by US since WW2. Richard Haas book now called a World in
Disarray – contrast with older Kissinger book, World Order.
4. China has “One Belt, One Road” program to
restore the Silk Rd – idea came from Hillary speech, but unable
to follow through and the Chinese are now spending billions on
the infrastructure.
5. Have lost meaning of the way states
interact in world system. Book, a World Without Meaning (1998)
about end of fighting over meaning of progress in cold war.
Every President since JFK has cited Enlightenment values as
Foundation of US.
What are the threats to American interests
today?
Biggest is lack of global economic growth.
Americans feeling that system is run for rich over the many. If
UK had been growing at 4%, no Brexit. Need for jobs is
overwhelming in Afghan, Pakistan too. No military solution but
special forces essential.
By 2019, will we celebrate 100 years of
Versailles or will it be gone?
Politics of water vital in Turkey and air in
New Delhi – cannot breathe well outside.
Turkey
1992 Dep. Amb. In Turkey and there several
times for much of career. The Turkey we thought we knew is
changing remarkably over 5 years. The coup was much more violent
than we understood. Still a democratic core there. 17 April vote
in referendum is enormously important. Large numbers arrested
and many unemployed. Their FDI and tourism are down, economy
doing worse.
Turkey and Europe
Turkey and the US
US officers have been visiting Turkey,
obviously important to US.
Syria more important conflict in world today
and affects Turkey in many ways.
Opportunity
Sees liberal international order has been
good for the US. US still has profound advantages: allies,
friends, institutions. Many other countries lack them. Time for
a grand strategy based on these. Not looking for enemies or to
recreate the cold war, states can seek to return to the
international order, e.g. a coalition to fight ISIS.
US economy growing at 1.6% a year, not
enough.
Better to remove too many deputies and too
many special envoys.
Question Time
What happened to belief in one world? Paris
climate change is a remarkable example; also fighting disease
together. Liberal trading order was a very good thing,
connecting India and China to rest of world even though each
country does its own way of doing business. Successful societies
in C21st will have sanctity of individual, rights of women etc.
Countries that can do those few universal values well will do
well.
What would have happened if the coup had been
successful? Cannot imagine Turkey run by the military again,
country would have been shattered by much greater destruction.
Is Turkey attempting to assimilate Syrian
refugees? Enormous effort, finding them jobs and moving 2.5 M
people away from border.
Did Erdogan mistake the democratic forces for
his own support and use it to persecute – Yes, E. is not a
benign figure. Yes, he took advantage of events of mid-July and
has taken advantage ever since. Opposition lacked an alternative
vision, though, for 20 years – E is best politician in town
without any organized opposition. What should Sec State say now?
Focus on these things but not be silent about values, like rule
of law and freedom of assembly and speech. Important for US not
to be silent about these values.
Solution to chaos in Syria for interests of
states in the region? There is a role for diplomacy as well as
US force here. US can take lead in arguing chaos is not in the
interests of regional powers.
Return to golden years of State Dept. in
recent years – how does current budget cuts and empty position
affect? Even though too many empty posts, acting and deputy
staff are working and political appointees will come. Already
have extreme vetting of refugees, that is what consular officers
do. 40% of State Dept. officers have been there less than ten
years.
Will Turkey vote with restricted debate and
security circumstances? US tends to look at Turkey and expect
rights restored in short term – but should let Turks set their
society in long term. Europe should have opened more to Turkey
ten years ago. Told Europeans then to avoid shutting off Turkey
from aspiration to join EU. I admire Merkel on refugees but not
on Turkey, because offered only transactional approach, cash for
refugee.
Is Turkey headed towards a Muslim theocracy,
destroying separation of church and state? Different now from
1990s, strikingly so. For too many Muslims, secularism seen as
atheism. Turks would not begin Congress or end Presidential
speeches with God Bless. Millions felt disenfranchised and
helped Erdogan get elected. Less tolerant now but he concluded
there was not a chance of entering the EU.
Who are the Kurds? Ancient people in Iran,
Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Unique culture and language. They long
for a state of their own, but were losers at Versailles. Ataturk
knew from beginning that he would be at war with Kurds, and
major conflict occurred early. PKK Marxist organization. War in
SE Turkey for years, till Ocalan captured. 1991 end of Gulf War,
Saddam attacked Kurds. US and Iraq and Iran made biggest refugee
effort then protected them above a line of longtitude. For
Turks, how much latitude to give Kurds? US supporting some
Kurdish groups but complex because of Turkey. Kissinger double
crossed Kurds; Grossman was in Ankara when Kurds made overtures,
and as DCM met them in home (not embassy). These three men
became top leaders of Kurds.
Long term future of EU? Most successful new
way of thinking about sovereignty, Germans and French have
stopped fighting each other, have large market, greatly to be
admired. Two challenges: democracy deficit (despite huge
Parliament building) and Euro currency without one central bank.
May 9, 2017 – 5:30 PM
Panel from the Air War
College, "Insights from the AWC Regional Tours"
Normally the highest rated annual program of
the year, featuring three professors fresh from a two week
Regional and Cultural Study to various areas of the world who
report on their findings and answer questions about the regions
they visited.
Biographies of Speakers
March 2017 visits to Egypt, Israel: Christopher Hemmer is
a Professor of International Security Studies and the Dean of
the Air War College.
Before joining the War College he
taught at Cornell University and Colgate University. He received
his Ph.D. in 1998 from the Department of Government at Cornell
University with a specialty in international relations. He
received his BA from the State University of New York at Albany,
where he majored in political science and minored in psychology.
His principal teaching and research interests are American
foreign policy, political psychology, and Middle East politics.
He is the author of, Which Lessons Matter? American Foreign
Policy Decision Making in the Middle East, 1979-1987 (State
University of New York Press, 2000) and his most recent book is
entitled American Pendulum: Recurring Debates in U.S. Grand
Strategy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2015).
March 2017 visits to Finland Estonia,
Latvia: Dr. Mark J. Conversino is Professor of Strategy
and Security Studies at the Air Force’s elite School of Advanced
Air and Space Studies (SAASS), Air University (AU), Maxwell AFB,
Alabama.
At SAASS, Dr. Conversino teaches
courses in airpower theory and history. From 2008 until 2015, he
served as Professor and Dean, Air War College (AWC) at Maxwell,
having joined the faculty there in 2002 following his retirement
from active duty with the Air Force. Dr. Conversino, who holds a
B.A. from Eastern Kentucky University and an M.A. and Ph.D. from
Indiana University, taught previously at SAASS from 1995 to 1998
as well as in the Department of History at the U.S. Air Force
Academy (USAFA). He is the author of the book Fighting With
The Soviets: The Failure of Operation FRANTIC, 1944-1945,
which was also published in Ukrainian in 2015. Dr. Conversino
has written several chapters in edited works, and numerous
articles and reviews in scholarly and defense-related journals.
He has lectured extensively here and abroad, and been the
recipient of numerous faculty and academic awards for
excellence. Following his service as Dean, AWC, he received the
Air Force Award for Meritorious Civilian Service. Dr. Conversino
serves on the Board of Advisors for the Baltic Defense College
in Tartu, Estonia and the Board of the Alabama World Affairs
Council.
March 2017 visit to China: Dr. Dawn
Murphy is an Assistant Professor of International Security
Studies at the U.S. Air War College.
She specializes in Chinese foreign
policy and domestic politics, international relations, and
comparative politics. Her current research analyzes China’s
interests, identity and behavior as a rising global power
towards the existing international order. Specifically, she
examines China’s relations with the Middle East and Sub-Saharan
Africa and is writing a book titled Rising Revisionist?
China’s Evolving Relations with the Middle East and
Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-Cold War Era. The book
project is based on field work conducted as a Visiting Scholar
with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, China; a
Visiting Research Fellow with the American University in Cairo,
Egypt; and a Visiting Researcher at Stellenbosch University’s
Centre for Chinese Studies in South Africa. Murphy holds a B.S.
in Industrial and Labor Relations from Cornell University,
Master of International Affairs from Columbia University’s
School of International and Public Affairs, and Ph.D. in
Political Science from George Washington University. Her
previous academic appointments include Postdoctoral Research
Fellow with the Princeton-Harvard China and the World Program at
Princeton University and Visiting Assistant Professor of
Political Science at George Washington University.
Prepared Remarks
Chris Hemmer, Middle East; rich in security problems.
Syrian civil war in seventh
year, Iraq, Turkey adrift from democracy and west; Egypt has a
government identical to previous regime before Arab spring,
Lebanon in turmoil since 1970s. Otherwise everything fine.
US administration is what has changed; how have states reacted?
What are core US policies in Middle East?
Egypt and Israel happy with end of Obama years; but
whether because his policy too weak or too strong is debated.
Gap had developed between what US and allies wanted in region.
Obama wanted to give democracy a chance but local regimes did
not.
US allies less worried about nuclear Iran than about Iran
freed from economic sanctions. Much friction for US in region.
Trump against nuclear deal with Iran, full support of Israel. Egypt
hoped that US criticisms of their human rights record would end.
Sisi was first foreign leader to call Trump, got an early
meeting in WH – Obama had not permitted this. Obama had denied
cash-flow financing ahead of actual aid, but Trump has not
reversed that.
The shift from military aid to a sales program has not been
reversed by Trump. Congress still refers to the human rights
record and hence policy has not changed, only atmospherics.
Israel –felt deep love and commitment from Clinton and
Bush. Clinton’s speech as Rabin’s funeral was memorable to
Israelis; they felt Bush had core commitment to Israel They were
frightened by Obama because of his realism, calculation of US
interest. Never got along with Netenyahu, though cooperation by
military and intelligence actually increased despite aloofness.
Trump in campaign said everything Israel wanted to hear, and to
move the embassy to Jerusalem. Has not worked out that way in
office.
Study the move of embassy. Announced first trip, to Israel the
day before 50th anniversary of capture of Jerusalem. Israelis
announced new houses and new settlement but Trump put out
standard statement against those as not helpful to peace
process. Similar to previous.
Trump’s love for Israel is really a reversal for Trump –
in campaign ‘neutral’ but now 100% behind Israel.
US cabinet is not all pro-Israel; one referred to Israel
as an apartheid state; Tillerson has closer ties to oil states
than Israel.
Middle East greeted Trump with more optimism than other regions
– but true of Obama also (except for Israel). Cycles of optimism
for new President followed by same policy as before.
Dawn Murphy, China multi-city tour
including broad range of actors including government and think
tanks.
Reaction to new Trump
administration.
First call between presidents; just after tour, Tillerson and
Mar-a-Lago summit.
Economic relations and territorial conflicts
Economic relations robust but first tension was possibility of
trade war.
Much uncertainty about what US policy will be, not wanting a
trade war. Wanting from US angle to remain within WTO rules.
Growing concern for US about market access to China and special
treatment for Chinese firms, ending of tax relief now for US
firms there.
They want a balance between access and continued entry to the
market.
Misrepresentation of growth rates, inflation of the numbers.
Slower Chinese growth has longer term impact on world.
Territorial disputes
Taiwan – Trump call from Taiwan leader, then Xi-Trump to respect
one China policy.
East China Sea came up repeatedly over the islands and Japan’s
aggressive behavior bleeding into South China Sea, the Spratly
Islands and Paracel Islands disputes.
Court ruling supported Philippines and Chinese asserted
repeatedly their interpretation of international law.
North Korea
– Chinese emphasized they do not have leverage that
administration thinks – has done so for previous
administrations.
China does have mutual defense treaty and most trade and energy
via China. China says does not have control over NK leaders and
sanctions would hurt NK people. They do not have sophisticated
ways to change behavior of NK.
China does not want THAAD in SK because dual use, also against
Chinese missiles. Urging Chinese to boycott SK goods.
Overall trends
Growing sense of adversarial relationship, competitive element
emphasized.
Military industrial complex on a global basis.
19th CP meeting in Fall 2017 will begin second 5 years of
administration and successor ought to be named – but might hold
off.
Uncertainty on both sides about new administration, and about
roll back of human rights.
Mark Conversino, Baltic region; AWC
have not returned to Russia since they invaded Ukraine.
Europe in 2017 was not supposed to
be a theatre – but we found troops on a SK basis, ‘ready to
fight tonight.’
Trump had just announced confidence in NATO, but that rarely
came up.
Hosts kept up just how serious things are without being
alarmist. Met military leaders and academics.
Finland has changed, wants strong bilateral relations
with US and interoperability from day one. Have not abandoned
neutrality.
Finns still recall winter war facing Stalin’s invasion; maintain
universal conscription and have arms for every person.
Territorial defense only, do not project power. 16 F-16 fighters
are dispersed, 900K reservists of 6 M population, the size of
Missouri. Would bleed out Russians, in classic strategy. Long
border with Russia and were abandoned in WW2 so not concerned
with alliances.
Baltics are in new reality and have accepted; have been trying
to alert West for some time. Russian speaking population
minority means they could be next.
Estonia one of few countries spending over 2% and took
higher casualties in Afghan than other partners,
proportionately; demonstrated willingness to sacrifice and to
fight.
Latvia and Estonia both look to model of Finns who fought
and lost less in WW2 – whereas they lost more and were removed
from the map in 1945.
Small forces will hold key positions then reserves will head
into woods to resist Russians.
NATO rotating heel-to-toe deployments and Lithuanians and
Estonian want dependents stationed there also, to guarantee US
will fight for them.
Defunct now is the attempted rebalance to the East, and
expectation that Europe would remain ‘world’s largest outdoor
museum.’
Now our aircraft and ships going into Baltics are on radar and
monitored; we conduct war games constantly for the region and we
are still losing each simulation.
If NATO goes wobbly or if Russian regime needs a distraction
from protests, risk of conflict from a major mistake.
Big Russian exercise this summer will alone exceed the forces of
the Baltic states; could quickly be diverted to an invasion of
the Baltics.
President, Grant Hammond announced
reception was sponsored by Dr. David Thrasher.
Dr. Conversino now Executive Director, succeeding Jim Nathan,
who is retiring.
Question Time
Putin does remain the
decider though Minister of Defense does have some say; Russian
military reforms recently have improved them; Putin up 2018 and
acclamation would improve his rule. His narrative is defending
Russia from outside influences and virus of Arab spring. If he
believes his hold on power is slipping, he might make a colossal
mistake. Should be retire or be replaced as leader, what would
follow?
Alex Navalny not a Jefferson, but successfully brought attention
to level of corruption in regime. Compared to others, Putin
looks Churchillian. Most likely would be brought down by those
in the regime and they are a nasty bunch.
Palestinians were unsure about how to take Trump’s’
statements; not influential themselves but work through their
connections such as King of Jordan to influence US. Have not had
a unified government and Abbas is working on a mandate ten years
old, Hamas 9 years; they always postpone the elections another 3
months; still very divided factions and no prospect of a way
forward. Fatah stronger in West Bank and Hamas in Gaza. With
victory of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt under Morsi, Egypt made
no moves to help in Gaza, kept border locked. Abbas is not in
practice leader of Palestinians.
Syrian civil war? No rationale for it ending soon; too
many outside actors that are keeping conflict alive by inserting
resources; recipe for escalation; a side losing will get more
support from suppliers. Would have to be an agreement among all
supporters including Iranians, most difficult. My guess is that
there would be an entity known as Syria – otherwise border wars
among new states, endless war. Kurdish factions would have
disputes and so would Turkey. Multilateral agreement on power
sharing with little remit for capital outside in the country
areas.
NATO and Baltic states? How long could Finns hold out?
NATO members do spend more than other countries; Poles over 2%
buying tanks and AAD. But Baltics small budgets; small fleets of
armored fighting vehicles and anti-armor. ‘Forest brothers’
tradition of WW2 irregulars. Looking to US, UK, Poland and
Nordic countries to save them.
USSR lost 200,000 men in just taking a little piece of
Finland. Entire Russian army now is only 400,000 so cannot
afford to lose masses to Finnish skiers.
Chinese treaty in Korea. No Chinese combat unit in NK,
Kim has not been invited to Beijing. Is the 1961 security treaty
functioning. Under what conditions would the Chinese interfere
in Korea? Chinese interest in not having a unified Korea on
their border, and other interests. Defense Treaty not most
important, but China might be comfortable with regime change
done by US. Chinese troops on NK border building up, probably in
case of worse scenario – and if US did attack NK, close to a
million lives lost in Seoul.
Scenario of belligerent being NK against Japan -- rather than US
to NK nuclear weapons -- is so different that hard to say much.
Why NK missiles failing – US hacking? No knowledge, but
much speculation. Hacking and missile defense are not a secure
measure. One of few totalitarian societies in world, no
alternate power bases except military leaders, population
indoctrinated. Intelligence is challenging there.
Special
Programs
“International
Security
Issues”
Fall, 2016 – 1:00-2:30, each Thursday from 22
September to 10 November [cancelled]
Rosa Parks Museum Auditorium, Troy University,
Montgomery
Topics include: ”Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st
Century,” “The Revolution in Security Affairs.” The Middle East
Quagmire,” “Putin’s Russia,” “Europe and NATO in Disarray,” “The
China Problem,” “Northeast Asian Allies,” and Foreign Policy in
the Next Administration.” Presented by 8 PhD.s, colleges and
research centers at Maxwell, AFB on the major security issues
facing the U. S.
Fee: $20 for AWAC Members; $40 for
non-members
Great
Decisions
Program
Spring, 2017 – 1:00-2:30, eight programs
on Tuesdays 1-3:30 pm, from 17 January to 7 March
Rosa Parks Museum Auditorium, Troy
University, Montgomery St.
Sponsored by the Foreign Policy Association
of the United States
A series of eight topics selected for
national study by hundreds of groups across the country,
supported by study guides, videos and PBS presentations and
concluded by a national opinion ballot to solicit views from the
American public on critical issues facing the nation.
Fee: $30 for AWAC members; $40 for
non-members; guests $5 per session
The Future of Europe - January 17
Trade and Politics - January 24
Conflict in the South China Sea - January 31
Saudi Arabia in Transition - February 7
U.S. Foreign Policy and Petroleum - February 14
Latin America's Political Pendulum - February 21
Prospects for Afghanistan and Pakistan - February 28
Nuclear Security - March 7
