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World Affairs Councils of America - Alabama World Affairs Council

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Alabama World Affairs Council's Archive:

Notes, 2004-05

These notes by Jeremy Lewis do not represent the views of AWAC, its Board, or other members.

Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'

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revised 12 May '05 by Jeremy Lewis

Tuesday 21 Sep. '04: Jack Jacobs, "Why has the US not been attacked since 9/11/01?"

Tuesday 19 Oct. '04: Victor Comras, Minister Counselor (Ret.) State Dept, International Trade Sanctions

Thursday 9 Dec. '04: Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, French Ambassador. on Franco-American Relations

Tuesday 15 Mar. '05: Paul Smyke, WEF, on Globalization of Trade

Tuesday 12 April '05: Dr. Edward L. Morse, "The Oil Market: 2005 and Beyond"

Tuesday May 10, '05: Air War College Regional Studies Program.  Instructors' reports on visits to global hot spots

Tuesday 21 Sep. '04
Jack Jacobs, "Why has the US not been attacked since 9/11/01?" [images], [Hi-Res images], McDermott distinguished professor at West Point and military news analyst for NBC and MSNBC.  A successful businessman in finance and real estate, he is the recipient of three bronze stars, two silver stars, and the congressional medal of honor (for heroism as an infantry officer in Vietnam).  He retired from the army as a Colonel and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Introduction: During the Tet offensive of 19 March 1968, Jacobs, while advising ARVN troops, was hit in the head by shrapnel, suffering partial blindness.  A slight man only 5'4" tall (which saved his life) he nonetheless pulled 25 soldiers out of the ambush zone, some of whom survived their wounds. 
He is the last medal of honor recipient to be Jewish, and likes to quote the rabbinical scholar, "If not me, who?  If not now, when.?" 
A man of many one-liners, he noted that his head surgery was performed by a recently drafted gynaecologist.
Preamble: Prof. Jacobs was full of insights on many topics. [After a depiction of himself as non-partisan and non-political, he delivered a stout defense of current policy.]
He noted that 20% of the troops in Iraq are from the Reserve and Guard, but have much better training than his troops did in Vietnam. 
As for casualties, he reminded us that half the members of the famous "Iwo Jima" photo did not survive the island's conflict.
As for second tours of action, he pointed out that Vietnam in 1972 was much more intense than in 1968, since the enemy had heavier weapons such as 30mm artillery.

"Why has the US not been attacked since 9/11/01?
Allies are able to get intelligence that we cannot.  But this won't last and neither will Pres. Musharraf.
Money: we are at least partially successful in cutting the flow.  Musharraf still may have to pay tribute to the enemy, but has done good work and snet his legions into the Hindu Kush.
Iran: most dangerous nation, above North Korea -- but there allies are carrying the load.
Film shown of living Medal of Honor recipients, for their Foundation.  Book sales.
Question Time:
Iran? has nuclear materials from China.  When asked why they haven't attacked the centrifuges, the Israelis replied, why doesn't US?
Right wing in Iran is now strengthening its control, including over women.
Force may be the only solution.
Iraq? disbanded its army and let militias keep sanctuaries, e.g. Fallujah.
Didn't want casualties -- but this causes more because it inhibits courses of action.
Need overwhelming combat power -- to squash enemy like a bug.
Eventually in 3.5 years, will declare a victory & withdraw.
Antiterrorist war? recommended Richard Posner article 2 weeks ago, opposed 9/11 Commission Report.  We don't need more stuctures, we need to use them smarter.  DOD hold 85% of intelligence functions.
Osama bin Laden? 1899 Afghan / Pakistan border drawn by British raj to divide Pashto on either side of Hindu Kush, permeable.  Can't go in there after him.  Paying Pakistanis to do that but probably won't get him.
[Members have objected to the webmaster that this is not quite correct historically, as to the date, motivation and effect of the British designed border.]
French? Won't supply troops. (Humor: 200 years without victories, and other one-liners we won't repeat here. Even the jews of Warsaw with only rocks held off the Nazis for longer.)
[Members have also objected to the webmaster that this depiction of French defeats is also not correct historically, and would have been news to Napoleon and Clausewitz -- and even to the French SNCF, whose train station is named after a victory.]
Media? Even basketball is a profession compared to journalism.  Humor: Dan Rather not "fair and balanced news" but "fairly unbalanced."

Tuesday 19 Oct. '04
Victor Comras, Minister Counselor (Ret.) State Dept, a noted authority on international trade sanctions.  Following years as a diplomat in Africa, Canada and eastern Europe, he led the implementation of UN sanctions on Yugoslavia.  He recently served as one of five members of the United Nations group overseeing implementation of sanctions against Iraq, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other terrorist groups.

"International Trade Sanctions Against Al Qaeda."

Emerging from retirement after 9/11/01, Mr. Comras joined in implementing United Nations measures to combat terrorism: to find Al Qaeda (AQ) and cut off their resources.
New legal obligation on all countries, with an organization to report directly to UN Security Council.
Comras one of 5 international experts -- asked goverenments around the world, published series of reports.
Very critical, great shortcomings in many countries.  Mandate was not renewed.
AQ product of disastrous Soviet war in Afghanistan.
Many recruits indoctrinated by new wave of religious nationalism.
Extensive support from oil rich middle east kingdoms inlcuding Saudi.
Wahabism austere form of Islam.  Suadi growing rivalry with Shiite Iranian orthodoxy.  Saudis funded teaching centers around middle East.
$75 Billion Saudi contribution -- new imams with little tolerance.
Imams in Pakistan and indonesia, seeking nations under Sharia.
teacher of OBL: fighting more valued than prayer.
But rejected by most muslims.  Found support from youth, resenting W culture.
AQ home Sudan, then Afghan, grew rapidly to 60 countries.
'96 Khobar Towers, '98 two embassies bombed, 2000 USS Cole attacked, 2001, 9/11 attacks.
US response swift against Afghan.  AQ lost physical base, clearly severe loss.
$130 M AQ and Taliban assets frozen with allies.
AQ resilient: Iraqi war provided new impetus.  New AQ emerged with new emphasis.  Pace of attacks accelerated.
Bali, Modina [?], Tashkent, Moscow and Berlin.  US spared -- but for how long?
Constant vigilance, concrete international coorperation, police cooperation, system-wide financial control.
Detention of supporters -- but what we don't know is serious:
where is OBL and his chief Al Zawahiri?  Highest priority.
1,000 cells now, with new management.
Information from captives is getting outdated -- using 3 yr old info.
Little done to close down AQ recruitment centers.
Rumsfeld -- risk of turning out terrorists faster than we can kill them.
Madrassahs still preaching ideology. 
Funding sources -- little hard info.  9/11 Commission said charities and deep donors, but little done.
Banks new principle "know your customer" -- report suspicious transactions -- but much more difficult because AQ switched assets out, using informal transfers like hawallah storefronts. Regulations unsuccessful.
Charity nets (Zakat, muslim donation) mix good & bad spending.
International drug trade: billions in unregulated funding.
Local cells businesses and petty crime.
Financial system weak link -- no assets frozen in AQ operating countries.
No prosecution anywhere of AQ funding persons.
Progress: ferreting out leaders and hunting assets.
Losing: battle to influence youth.  Hatred of West is increasing.  Pool of AQ youth is growing.
Countermeasure must be tolerance and pluralism.
Question Time:
American muslims must speak [??] to world -- organization in New Jersey requested list of safe charities during Ramadan -- but rebuffed by State.
Saudi real friend of US? Saudis in total denial until recently -- said Saudis would never give roots to AQ -- 2 weeks before Riyadh bombings.  Now taking first steps.  Difficult because so many implicated in funding AQ via charities.  Saudis promised Al Haram chairty would be closed -- but still operating in most of 35 countries.
Administration could only go so far without bringing down Saudis.
Funding from US?  Has happened.  Difficult to separate Hamas and AQ funding -- often from same sources.  Extremely difficult to prosecute.  US Treasury authorities used to designate groups and freeze assets.  Canadians did creditable job also.  But like a needle in haystack -- especially before attacks occured.
Attacks before election?  -- No special info.
French and German Cooperation?  Good from Europe generally -- but only a limited number of countries have ability to monitor (developed coutries).
International banking community needs international mechnaism -- not bilateral efforts.  No international database exists -- each case is treated as new. 
How cupable is UN in oil for food scam?  Very -- but so were we all.  Corrupt from beginning.  Let Saddam choose Company, lifting oil and did not police it.  Only checking bill of lading before paying from escrow account in New York.
GAO said Sddam had skimmed $6 to 10 Billion.
UN CTC (Counter Terrorism Committee).
1267 Series Resolutions versus AQ, listed , identified and freezing assets.
1373 resolution created CTC -- but has not achieved multi-lateralism.
Newer CTC hiring 60 people -- but have lost several years.
AQ leadership? Zarqawi restated fealty to OBL -- worked with Iraqi and Iranian intelligence.

Thursday 9 Dec. '04 
Ambassador Jean-David Levitte, French Ambassador to the United States since December 2002. Educated as a lawyer, oriental linguist and political scientist, he has been in the French Foreign Service for 34 years, last serving as Ambassador to the United Nations.  For five years, he was an advisor to President Chirac.
Introduction by Gen. Cleveland.
French Foreign service since 1970.
Far east and Africa, staff of Giscard d'Estaing.
Amb. to UN before US, worked as adviser to Chirac before UN.  Witness to WTC fall.
See biographical notes handed out.
Presentation on US- French Bilateral relations. 
Pres Bush said on presenting credentials France was best ally in war on terror. 
France unfortunately has experience with terrorism, eg on streets of Marseilles in '80s, '90s -- and shared intelligence with CIA & FBI on daily basis. 
Saw NYC towers' destruction from office windows.
Took initiative to change international law to help US. 
France participated fully in Afghan war.
Still maintain troops there, & French General in charge of NATO operations in Kabul.  Only French & US have Special Forces on Pakistani border -- and training Afghan army.
Why in Afghanistan & not in Iraq?
Did not consider war necessary at that time -- did not exclude and did cooperate with troops in 1991 -- not with rush to war while UN inspections were under way.  Not sure there were stocks of WMD -- but sure they were no immediate threat.
War could trigger resentment all over Arab world -- based on bitter French experience all over arab world, should not underestimate arab nationalism.
Could be a disaster if Iraq does not succeed, for several regimes including Jordan.
France will help -- not with troops -- but will offer to train Iraqi gendarmerie and agrees with forgiving 80% of Iraqi debt, will help with Iraqi elections. 
You will see convergence of policies between US & France and Europe in coming years, cooperation in several areas around world.
If we had a big difference over war with Iraq, we have agreement on many issues.
I read in media Chirac and Schroeder want to build European counterweight to US. 
BUT Franco-German goal of EU has always been to make war in Europe impossible. 
France historically invaded and has been invaded by all neighbours.  Enough was enough for DG & Adenauer.
Put together steel & coal, then nuclear industries because of military applications.
Common market followed and common currency for 300 M Europeans.
This year 2 miracles:
      Enlargement of EU:- ten new countries with xx M [??] population, most recently part of old soviet empire, 3 were part of old soviet union.
      Started with Marshall plan of 1948.
      US was based on one language, enlightenment culture.
      EU has 2,000 yrs of different histories, wars, confrontation -- different legal traditions, 21 languages, treaties from Rome to Maastricht.
      If ratified, will have one EU presi, one fon min, will help cooperation to develop.
      will continue to build EU defense, not to compete with US but as stronger ally. 
      Need to integrate better our forces -- good news for America -- will help NATO to be more balanced, more efficient, more ready to confront threats of terrorism and WMD.
France is second investor in US, after only UK.
$180 BN in FDI, worth 650,000 US jobs.
Important to meet CEOs and discuss AL for investment, New South.
For France, many new jobs and $1Bn daily in trade with US.
New big Airbus 380 half built in US, assembled in Toulouse -- shows integration of economies.
Hope new Boeing will be partly built in France.
More imp to help new generations to work together.  Youth obliged to learn 2 foreign languages, common for students to take year abroad, building integrated generation of Europeans. 
Developing partnerships between US & French Universities.
Historical view.
French soldiers in American Revolution, French revolution bult on American Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.
Close at end of both ww1 and ww2.  Was with Bush and Chirac at Normandy memorial and reunion for D-day vets this June.  True Heroes, never forget.
Disagreement within family should be accepted -- disagree without being disagreeable.  Admire Colin Powell.  For 225 years we have been in marriage with counselling.
Question time
      EU Trade Commission is only interlocutor for US.
      2/3 of FDI comes from EU -- and vice versa.
      4M US jobs come from EU.
      difficulties: mad cows, chickens, cheeses, wine, but minor matters.
      Only a week away from wine agreement.
    Damage to relations over last 2 years? 
      Quite severe -- most since '66 De Gaulle withdrawing from NATO structure.
      French had difficulties understanding depth of tragedy of 9/11 -- & some US reactions went too far, disinformation, in DOD following war with Iraq -- accused French of giving passports to Saddam & family to escape from Iraq.  Questioned both DOD and DOS but no answer -- media reported this & caused outrage, but now known untrue.  Sent public letters to US administration about this disinformation, gave 8 examples of Pentagon disinformation
      You can strongly disagree with Pres. Chirac, half of France is strongly against Chirac's policy, as Americans are.
      But in France not the same kind of America bashing -- just opposed to war. 
      Surveys show 72% of French positive opinions about American people.
      Important to maintain good relations with US -- 90% yes.
    10% of French population muslim? 
      No, 8%, 5M muslims approx but cannot question officially by law -- also largest Jewish community 700,000.
      New development in France since Algerian independence.
      Not a problem for 95% of these muslims, just building a better future like US Mexicans or Cubans.
      5% creating problems in impoverished suburbs, good education as French citizens -- but tensions at home with muslim faith.
      Need French schools to train French imams, to replace the extremist immigrant imams expelled from Algeria, Morocco & Tunisia.
    Nuclear proliferation -- will France take lead on Iran?
      UK, German & French initiative on Iran.
      Wait for fall of ayatollahs, some say.
      But in Europe we feel cannot wait, took initiative last year, Iran has accepted to sign protocol to open door for more IAEA inspectors.
      Most threatening development is enrchment of uranium, now suspended and verifiably.
      NK on other hand has ousted inspectors and building four to six nuclear bombs.
      But for next phase need full support from US, we don't have enough leverage to convince hard liners in Teheran to stop for ever nuclear ambitions, need US.
      Engage maybe in secret dialog -- needed because of Shias in Iraq, Afghan.  Iran can create trouble.
      Need to discuss their support of Hizballah.
      Sanctions would need consensus and switch roles of good cop and bad cop, EU playing bad cop this time.
    Full membership of Turkey in EU?
      Chirac is totally in favor of full membershipof Turkey in EU.  Nine days to decide whether to start the negotiations -- no doubt it will be positive, and begin in one year or so
      Big debate all Europe over Turkey, not important that it is muslim -- ex Yugoslav muslims OK -- but a big country.  In 10-15 yrs of negotiation, Turkey will have 100 M pop.  New constitution: policy needs 55% of states & 65% of pop. Blocking minority by 35% -- half of which is Turkey alone.
      Like giving CA half of blocking minority of US Senate.
      Economic: Turkey is dynamic economy but low developmental level -- like ten newcomers who have less pop together than Turkey.  EU helps newcomers to catch up with money transfers, $40Bn per year transferred to newcomers -- costly.
      Should join, provided respect criteria.
    Religion as private matter -- but problem of islamic militants converted in prisons??
      Worst thing would be a clash of civilizations, Huntington proven right.  Prevent by respectful dialog wth 100M muslims all over the world.
      How help them to adopt our values.
      Defeated communism thru dialog, partnership -- but not comparable because do not want to defeat or eliminate islam, a great religion.
      How can we separate moderate muslims from extremists, like AQ.
      Another reason why opposed war wth Iraq -- war is not best way to help people discover democracy.
      Took 6 yrs s kingdom of ?? [Morocco??] to set emancipation of women, coming directly from religious laws.
      Should not impose values like crusaders of 21st Century -- should be century of dialog and civilization, not confrontation.

Tuesday 15 Mar. '05 
Paul Smyke, [Images] senior adviser to the World Economic Forum on its relations with the US public and private sectors. A Swiss-American political analyst, on the effects of globalization, nationally and in Alabama.

Paul Smyke, "Reflections on Globalization of Trade and Alabama."
WEF 35 years 
3 parts -- 

1 what is WEF
2 Conclusions of recent Davos summit January 5 days in Alpine town.
3 Alabama.
Core Business organizations, surrounded by NGOs, academia, religious organizations, govt., labour, youth, media.
Founded 1971 by Prof. Klaus Schwab, funded by business membership, HQ Geneva, NGO like Red /cross.
Annual meetings, industry meetings, initiatives,  regional summits, Center fr Strategic insight.
For disasters, drug companies provide supplies for example.
2005 Issues.
Turbulent & complex world, due to interdependence, volatility, time compression, asymmetry, signals vs noise.
12 main challenges
* China --  likely soft landing for Chinese economy
rising trade surplus with US may cause political backlash, 20 M jobs needed every yr.
* Education - developed and developing countries -- especially girls & women.
Primary, secondary & university but linked to job creation.
Jordan Education initiative -- internet in every classroom.

* Equitable globalization for developing countries.
NEt gain, lifted millions from poverty, countries with free trade have grown faster.
Globalization also ruthless to some limited by education, infrastructure, education, democracy or health deficits.
DOha Development agenda should be implemented.
* Europe aging, lacking dynamism, diminishing world role.  Failure of Lisbon agenda -- but some dissent.
* Global economy up 4% in 2004, slightly higher in emerging markets, forecast 3.25% for 2005.
Risk factors US deficits, weakness in Europe.
* Global governance, international organizations Institutional gap, needs new international partnerships, corruption a problem.  Climate change - growing consensus that problem is real.
* Islam  -- ideological conflict with west, fault of rulers in mid E and conflict between secular & sectarian groups .
* Middle East window of Opportunity in Palestine.  Iraq great unknown, Iran nuke ambitions, need for high growth to soak up youth.
* Poverty 3 Billion live on $2 per day (Africa 1/3.).
* US leadership - debates over benign hegemon question.  US is a net debtor while only superpower.
* Global trade.  Doha round not advancing.

Four scenarios for Future in NIC 2020 from US Govt. -- cited WEF & DAvos brand.
Davos World -- robust growth, non-western face to globalization
Pax Americana
New Caliphate -- radical religious.

Harmony of govt., business and media needed to market state to businesses.  More effective than a simple pitch prepared by advertising agency.
CEO attracted more by another CEO than by an official alone.
Student exchanges valuable -- e.g. Harvard goal now.
Encouraging student travel.
e.g. 6 yr. old daughter taking Chinese 3 x week.
Sister city & state programs w/ Latin Amer. & China.  Costs money without direct benefit, but valuable
AWAC helpful to state?
Needs younger people -- essay contest and send winner overseas -- costs $10-15K but helps reach beyond typical audience.
state has transport network.
e.g. Singapore has recruitment program to attract talent, offer incentives to move.
Question Time.
Chinese soft landing scenario?
Grudging respect shown fr US in what Bush has done -- contrast with 6 months ago.  But still trust deficit among very intelligent people outside US.  US not supporting ICC, Kyoto.
Europeans still object to lack of US health care coverage etc.
weforum.org resources.
Exporting jobs?  Outsourcing discussions? Last year one of top issues, but this year not among leading issues.
Global governance -- corruption issue.  Kofi Annan recognizes Rwanda was greatest failure.  WEF has launched anti corruption initiative, statement of pledge fr companies -- see web site. 

Tuesday 12 April '05
Dr. Edward L. Morse, "Oil prices and the International Energy Sector: What's Next?"
Senior director and executive adviser for Hess Energy Trading Company and former owner/publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly.  A renowned international expert on energy, he spoke on the conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia for international oil ascendancy. 

Johns Hopkins MA, Princeton PhD.  CFR research project, Taught at Princeton.  First senior fed officer on energy issues, during Iranian crisis in Carter and Reagan admins.  He created consulting energy Co which became leading Co.  -- intro by Jim Nathan.

The Oil Market Outlook: 2005 and Beyond.

Oil prices increased since 2003 to $56 barrel, highest ever.
May be like the doubling of prices in 1973 or in 1979.
Limited by rigs, refining capacity and transport, given high demand.
75% of resources located in OPEC countries, but OPEC has failed to increase capacity for a generation.
Although large resources exist, the issue is actual capacity.
Peak of capacity in different measures was 1981, when in surplus.
April and May weakest period of demand in year, then increases in summer.
Gas prices going up because of lack of refinery capacity, and crude oil is constrained. 
Russia is world's most imp incremental supplier of oil -- was all of increase in 2003 and 04.
Oil extremely politically imp in Russia for Putin and Kremlin.  Kremlin's oil authority was challenged by private oil Cos -- but main Co. leader had his oil Co taken and he was jailed.  Production slumped among other Cos.
World was dependent on Russia and Russia is failing world.
Gaddafi's takeover led to permanent reduction of oil production in Libya.
Iran 1978 similarly constrained its oil production by half.
Chavez in Venezuela had similar effect on lowering production. 
Loss of staff with advanced degrees in revolutionary regimes is a problem.
demand driven by age of population and mobility.
China has 6 M now, 1/4 size of Russia's, 1/10 of US.  Hence China will keep on increasing cars.  Power is oil based in China, and this will increase oil needs also.
US share of consumption is still increasing dramatically.  US supply declined in 1990s.  US is #1 consumer, China now 2nd, Japan 3rd.
Germany and France are half of Japan.
US pop grew by 30M in last decade.
Cannot predict refinery accidents, revolutions, terrorist attacks.
2004 reached 92% of capacity, essentially full capacity.
Baku pipeline postponed a year, could reduce prices eventually.
Question Time:
China oil importing country, growing astronomically.
Caspian Basin and Iraq both are landlocked, need oil pipeline through neighbors.
Shared public-private pipeline russia, exxon Mobil and others has been a failed experiment.  This discourages other partnerships with governments.
Europe is stagnant in oil demand -- demand is only growing in western hemisphere and in Asia.
Iranian perspective: surrounded by US on all sides and at sea.  Intransigence on both sides has impeded Caspian sea oil and Iranian oil flow.
US sanctions on Iran have worked.
Chinese oil cos in Gulf and elsewhere -- competition and possible conflict with other oil cos?
We thought the age of resource nationalism was over and private cos would manage oil resources.  But premature.  We now see oil nationalism still with us.
Putin came via KGB, which controlled oil flow and all foreign exchange flows under USSR.
Putin can see growing threat from China, and holds oil in east with little population in region, e. Siberia.
China has to consider oil imports require navy and many bilateral arrangements to ensure.
US has not invited China (#2) to join the oil forum.  Chinese must feel rules are rigged against them, deals bilaterally.  Chinese calculation is not money, it is power.
Mexico?  Not in OPEC but has state oil Co monopoly so operates like saudi in some ways. 
German taxes at $6 gallon have protected consumer from major price increases effect.
Many oil producers have stagnant economies -- e.g. over generation Kuwait still at $25 bn oil economy -- whereas BP started same size and now 10 times size, profits alone $25bn.
Environmental movement in US effect? US had not had open debate about tradeoffs between environment and price stability.
Boutique fuels

Tuesday May 10, '05 [Images
Air War College Regional Studies Program.  Senior War College instructors reported on their recent visits to global hot spots.
Col. (Dean) Stef Eisen moderator
Dr Chris Hemmer on Arab-Israeli relations
Dr LE Grinter on Vietnam and China
Dr Glenn Lamar on France and Spain

Col. Stefan Eisen Jr., DPA, (moderator) is Dean of Academic Affairs for the Air War College.  He previously commanded training squadrons, instructed in training jets, and introduced Warrior Week to AF Basic Military Training.  He was designated top graduate at SOS and Naval War College, and distinguished graduate at ACSC.  He holds the BS from the USAF Academy, MS from St. Mary's University, MA from the Naval War College, and DPA from Alabama. 

Reports on regional tours.  -- Eisen
7 week study of region followed by 2 weeks tour, with Combatant Commanders Theater Security Coop Plan.
This year took retired 4 star generals as mentors, plus outreach to International officers.

Christopher Hemmer, "The Middle East"

Christopher Hemmer, Ph.D., is Associate Professor of Strategy and International Security at Air War College, specializing in political psychology and the Arab-Israeli conflict.  He holds the BA in political science from SUNY Albany, and the Ph.D. in international relations from Cornell University.  He is the author of Which Lessons Matter?  American Foreign Policy Decision Making: The Middle East, 1979-87.  (SUNY Press, 2000), and most recently, "I Told You so: Syria, Oslo, and the Al-Aqsa Intifada" Middle East Policy 10,3 (Fall 2003): 121-135. 

Lesser Issues:

Insurgency in Iraq
Iran nuclear weapons
Libya denouncing WMD programs
Saudi & Egypt dem reforms hints
But Mostly arab - Israeli conflict because people in region consider it most important.  Creating two states in area 1/6 size of Alabama, very tiny.
Optimism now, because:
Start of Bush 2nd term is most auspicious time, experienced team that does not seek reelection. 
New PLO leader Mahmood Abbas elected president 2005, committed to peace, considers violence strategic disaster for PLO. 
Sharon's decision for unilateral withdrawal from gaza strip, 360 sq. mi but crowded.  Surprise because Sharon one architect of settlements.
Nezerene loneliest settlement, critical withdrawal.
Sharon got agreement in cabinet by firing two opponents before vote.
Pessimism: also 3 reasons.
Bush team lacks desire.  Opposed to Clinton's activism in Mideast.
Ceasefire remains tenuous.
West Bank barrier still being built, hardships for Palestinians.
Sharon is trying to come to a settlement unilaterally by drawing borders where he wants them via barrier (wall or fence are loaded terms, sate Dept. uses barrier.)
Conclusion.  Better now than for 5 years.

Glenn Lamar, "France & Spain, Security Issues."
Glenn Lamar, Ph.D., is Visiting Professor in the Department of Strategy at the Air War College, and adviser to the West Europe regional studies trip.  He holds the BA in French and MA in History from Auburn, and the Ph.D. in History from Florida State University.  his book, Jerome Bonaparte: The War Years, 1800-1815 (Greenwood, 2000) won the 2001 International Napoleonic Society's Literary Award. 
Still allies in NATO for 5 years, esp on war n terrorism, excellent intelligence services esp in N Africa and Mid East.
Spain still ally in war on terror, despite pulling out troops from Iraq after election.
Visited NATO HQ etc.
Old NATO or new EU? Rivals in some ways, working to same purposes -- mostly same states.
Norway is rare -- in NATO but not EU, though may join EU in near future.
Evolving relationship.
Turkey in NATO but not EU -- 
big issue because Bush pressure for admitting turkey.  Belgians gave technical response, spanish similar but more negative, French blunter -- like Americans, they are not european.  EU is not unified, more a confederation, still voting on issues; Turkey would be largest nation in europe and would have largest vote.
      9/11 and 3/11 Spain -- public opinion strongly against Iraqi war. 
      French troops still in Afghanistan.
    NATO long future?  Still a necessary bridge between US and Europe.
      Constitution, 1/3 states referenda, looks like failure in France.
      Not a threat to NATO.
      NRF = NATO response Force, airlifted outside Europe.  Being created in case US not involved.  (NATO now means US to Europeans).
      Intervention in Ivory Coast & Congo -- US not involved.   Eu Battlegroups n future.
      Europeans will continue to be strongest allies of US.

    Lawrence E. "Buck" Grinter, "Hong Kong Viet Nam and Singapore"
    Lawrence E. "Buck" Grinter, Ph.D., is Professor of Asian Studies, Dept. of War Fighting, Air War College, Editor of the Maxwell Papers, and Founder board member of AWAC.  He is co-editor of six books and has authored 52 published articles on Asian and international security affairs.  Dr. Grinter holds the BA from the University of Florida, and MA and Ph.D. in political science from the University of North Carolina.  He has extensive military and intelligence experience in East Asia. 


      Flew to Hanoi, first time in North.
      First experience outside gates of army hotel was female invitation on street (market communism).
      Images of real estate speculation near airport.
    Economic Development despite communist party -- 
      40% of industry still state owned and slow growing, but growth from roaring private sector, 8% growth officially. 
      Hidden economy may equal official economy, robust trading nation, rubber, fish, coffee exports. 
      Corruption endemic, could be 5% of GDP. 
    Political development:
      Dilemmas of modernizing: how to open economy but keep political control. 
      Vietnam running behind China, old men still around, but Sec Gen. a reformer, possibly illegitimate son of Ho Chi Minh (does not deny). 
      Cannot protest or form other party -- but growing freedom in media and associations, earlier in Saigon than Hanoi.
      Moving toward a new interpretation of Human Rights but cannot risk disturbances, top priority is stability.  Just can't accept other parties or bearing arms. -- leader.
    Military mission: 
      People's rule, protection of fatherland, and economy.  40% of Vietnam mil budget is earned in business.  Mil leaders see that business is vital to their budget.
    Diplomatic: improved relations with China Russia and US.
      Borders still insecure, but ten years of normalization with US and 4 years of trade.
      60th anniversary of Ho's declaration of independence. 
      We have visited there but so far do not pay Vietnam to study in US.

    Question Time:
    Parallels Vietnam and Iraq now?
      Hemmer -- nature of opposition much less in Iraq, not unified, disparate groups. 
      Therefore US prospects better.
      In Jordan met Iraqi officers being retrained for new Air force.  All have families threatened for collaboration, but still committed to building AF. 
    Burgess: Withdrawal from Palestine this summer?
      Hemmer: there was fear of civil war and having to evict Jews.  Met officers planning the operation to evacuate, expecting most people will accept compensation.  But some zealots from outside gaza could be blocked from entering Gaza.  Sharon put a lot behind it.  Despite some ugly moments will succeed.
      Negotiation on West Bank to follow this?  Probably not, because still creating facts n ground by settling E, N and S of Jerusalem.
    France and NATO?
      Lamar -- France now very active in NATO exercises, sending most troops, flying flag at NATO.
    European defense with own infrastructure? (Lewis
      No will be NATO with Americans on coffee break.  Berlin Plus Agreement: can borrow NATO assets (i.e. US) for nearby regions, Europeans lack transport.
      Hemmer: polls among Palestinians show since Arafat's death favor peace & negotiations -- but Hamas is strongest organ and has still rejected peace process.  Hamas ran away with local elections.  Next vote in June July for Pales legislature, where less corrupt and local service is less a factor.
    Vietnam, China, India relations?
      Grinter -- Vietnam skillful but Chinese and Indians on their minds.  Chinese have 17x pop, flood of imports to Vietnam.
      Indians and Vietnam greatly interested because f difficulties with Chinese in past.  Indians training Vietnam on Sukhoi fighters.  BUt Chinese work through bilateral arrangements to offset the Indian and US influences in their underbelly. 
    Syria relations in middle east?
      Hemmer: Syrians know when to back down, when go too far.  Issues ar Golan and WMD as well as flow of terrorists to Iraq.  Syrians very clever at closing a process down when Powell visits, reopening soon after.  Can extract concessions -- more skilled than Iraqis.
    Role of Europeans?
      Lamar -- lack door kicking ability.  Fr and Brits level 2, but steep drop off below them in capability.  Have large infantry as peacekeeping troops -- but only US has more creative ability.