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Notes, 2003-04

These notes by Jeremy Lewis do not represent the views of AWAC, its Board, or other members.

Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'

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revised 4 May '05 by Jeremy Lewis


Tues May 18
Air War College Report to Alabama: faculty discussed their recent regional tours with AWC students.
Col. Stefan Eisen, Dean, Moderator.
Dr. Stephen Burgess, "South Africa."
Col. (Ret.) Theodore Hailes, "Russia."
Dr. Christopher Hemmer, "Israel."

3 Feb'04 (at Maxwell AFB).
Don Oberdorfer, "The Two Koreas."
Previous visit to Montgomery in a mob and then Freedom Riders facing fixed bayonets, and CP Sonny Montgomery -- as a journalist.
Koreans call Japan sea East sea. [Map].
Contested by neighbors throughout all its history, invaded frequently.
Russo Japan war fought and C19th Sino Japan war over Korea.  Tough neighborhood for Koreans.  Geography is hist.
Soviet invasion of Korea, US concerned about Soviet intent on Japan Aug. 1945.  Rn troops moving.  White House meeting sent 2 colonels incl. Dean Rusk into another room to draw a line across a Natl. Geography map looking for a mountain range or natural divider to divide occupational duties and take surrender of Japan.  Lacking one, they took 38th parallel -- Rns took Japan surrender above that.  No US troops near the line but Stalin stopped his troops at the line.  Temp line which became permanent.  Soviets created N.Korea under guerrilla commander Kim Il Sung.  South K Sigman Rhee grad of GWU, Harvard & Princeton.  1950 SUng persuaded Stalin to attack, US troops had left, not expected to return -- Stalin agreed at 4th attempt.  HST reacted this will not stand and sent US troops under UN flag.  4 year war ended at similar position.
South ROK dominated by mil governments but by 1987 mc forced intro of democracy, flourished economically.  Now 13th largest economy on earth.  Koreans very hard workers and intelligent people, able to survive among bigger powers.
NOrth DRK still totalitarian, concentration camps for 200K people, one of least human rights on earth.  Deprivation, starvation outside capital.
2M of 22M have starved to death in recent years, est. by human rights groups.
N.Korea has always wanted nuclear weapons, since PRC tested in 1954, but MAO not interested in spread of nukes.  Early 1980s N.Korea began factory N of capital for plutonium weapons, reactor for reprocessing fuel..  US satellites detected, growing issue in 1980s.  1985 USSR got N.Korea to sign Treaty of Nonproliferation.  UN IAEA inspectors in dispute as to scope.  1993-4 tension over N.Korea nuclear program. 
Sec Def. Perry under Clinton said US came close to war with N.Korea over issue.  Agreed framework: factory shut down under UN inspection & US offered electricity station reactor plus 500K tons of fuel oil annually. 
Bush admin. confirmed N.Korea had obtained tech from Pakistan to produce highly enriched uranium in return for ballistic missiles.
N.Korea negotiator with Kelly was same authority who had negotiated Agreed Framework, said to Sec. Jim Kelly US belligerent attitude entitled them to program.
Brits still have embassy there -- at meeting, concluded N.Korea had admitted their program.
N.Korea wanted recognize sovereignty, not interfere with economy programs, sign non aggression Treaty.  My judgement was only opening request for negotiation.  Relayed to State dept. & urged engagement in discussions.  Hard to do because they had broken word once and would need verification.
Admin. decided to instead exert pressure to give up enriched uranium program.  Shut off heavy fuel oil.
N.Korea predictably reopened plutonium program, reactor (announced all in advance) put hoods over UN cameras, kicked out inspectors, exited Treaty of nonproliferation, moved fuel rods back.
N.Korea claims reprocessed all 8K fuel rods -- certainly have done some, pond is empty.  Enough for 5-7 weapons, added to 1 or 2 previously. 
US turned to PRC which has provided food energy and aid to them.  PRC has urged negotiations, multilateral in US view but N.Korea wants bilateral to prevent ganging up on them.  Nov. 2003 bizarre dialog this way, Sec. Jim Kelly under instructions to be guarded, each side made speech.   After dinner, N.Korea rep talked to Kelly in corner: not willing to give up nuclear materials, and had right to transfer them around world.  Chinese unhappy with meeting results.  Then 6 way meeting incl. Russia plus side meeting of US & N.Korea.  US govt. still sharply divided over N.Korea.  Some want to put pressure in hope of evil govt. collapsing.  Sec. Powell persuaded bush to attend talk with N.Korea in August -- when Bush on trip to Africa, met alone w/ Powell.  But instructions to Kelly to say little, not to really engage N.Korea.  N.Korea 4 questions could not
N.Korea returned to threatening mode, but accepts cannot transfer them overseas.  Claims has finished nuclear deterrent, laid out 4 stage plan unacceptable to US but possible basis for discussion.
Last two months invited John Lewis of Stanford and Sig Heckler of Los Alamos delegation to N.Korea to show Americans they have the plutonium.  Confirmed both granules and metal weapons grade, pond empty.  Making weapon although not simple, 60 years old, well understood. 
Last Sunday Pakistan fired nuclear chief AQ Khan for supplying N Korea, Iran and others -- see papers yesterday -- for cash, without govt. approval.
Bush admin. would like this to go away till after election, time on N.Korea side, restarted reactor.  Next president will be faced with difficult and dangerous situation -- limited choice for negotiation or attack, neither good. 
Situation not in train to get better but worse, better to negotiate first. 
SK new president 2002, young have no sense of threat from N.Korea (31%) but from US. 

Question Time:
If Gore president 2000?
Other nations interests?
Chinese want status quo without US involvement increasing, with N.Korea threat reduced.  Russians do not much part in this, Putin had relations with Kim Jong Il and wants inclusion, but they have unclear position.
Japanese with US, very worried about N.Korea -- 3 stage ballistic missile launched over Japan islands into Pacific -- first physical threat to Japan since WW2, population now more security conscious.  Revision of no war, no war  forces clauses of japanese constitution now called for. 
Lead country is US & N.Korea viewpoint is that US runs world. 
Why did N.Korea neglect own people with food.  N.Korea is fairly far north & never had agricultural production of South -- too cold and mountainous.  Food deficit for years, but should trade with other nations for food.  Poor economy has limited that and spending 1/3 of GDP on military. 
Defector, close aid to Kim Il Sung told Don figures of starvation, shrugged shoulders.  I have no grief for N.Korea govt., terrible govt. but not likely collapse, and has no democracy tradition, no obvious successor to Kim Jong Il.
US has pulled back troops?  No, a 5 year plan, few have yet moved, not because of SK public opinion but US force restructuring and needing flexible response.  Maybe 12K of 38K US troops to be moved (rumors) but still N.Korea knows would be devastated by war but only after wreaking incredible devastation on SK. 
COuld South improve economy of N.Korea and N.Korea come to their senses?  SK trying and I am convinced Korea will be unified -- old country for 13 centuries unified till 1945, and divided almost by fluke.  Unlike Germany had never started a war, just occupied frequently.  Deep yearning for reunification in Korea.  One people, language, tradition. 

Mike Mansfield?  Unforgettable.  Irish immigrants, mom died, dad in construction, sent him to Montana relatives.  Ran way, joined Navy at 14 in WW1, then army & marines while still teen.  Copper mining in Butte 1920s, big industry.  English teacher got him to U Montana, married him, pushed him into politics.  Maureen named on his foundations. 
House, Senate, majority leader.
1/3 of book desperate to fight to persuade presidents to not engage US troops in indochina.  Had been trooper in China, had visited, had been professor.  Mansfield told LBJ forthrightly not to escalate VN war, carried with him updated index card of casualties.   Walked tightrope of Senate leader, opposing war in private but not blasting LBJ in public.

Nov. 18, 2003
Sir Eldon Griffiths, "The future of relations between the US and Europe."
President of WACA, former member of parliament for Bury St. Edmonds and commons foreign affairs committee.  Delegate to Council of Europe and European Union; advisor to the British police.  Minister of sport and under secretary of environment.  Government spokesman on European and NATO issues, knighted 1988.  Former journalist for Time and editor for Newsweek.  Chair, Korea-America friendship society of southern California.

Note: owing to foul weather delaying Sir Eldon's flights, Prof. Grant Hammond of Air War College gave an excellent impromptu speech on the changing nature of international security.  Sir Eldon instead spoke twice on Nov. 19th at Maxwell AFB and the Capital City Club.  He was also interviewed as "Sir Griffiths" on APTV's For the Record.

Speech Nov. 19, 2003 at Maxwell AFB:
Anecdote: some years ago, when Sir Eldon was given a demonstration flight in an F-111 from Norway to the UK, he was subjected (to show the capabilities of the aircraft) to a 4 G turn before landing.  Afterwards, the pilot revealed himself to be an RAF officer.  Had there been an accident and a by-election, the US would not have been held responsible!

Since 9/11/01, and Le Monde's headline that we are all Americans now, the tidal wave of support for the US has evaporated.  We are now disturbed by the volume and acerbity of anti American feeling around the world.  In a recent, large EU poll, the American president was rated as the second largest threat to world peace, after Sharon.  Why?
Impression of obsession with terrorist challenge in Washington.
Preemptive, forward leaning policy OK but the manner of expression gives the impression of obsession. 
The Washington notion of terrorism being new.  9/11 attack was unique in scale -- but rest of world is used to terrorism (e.g. King David hotel, 93 dead.  Tower of London bombing, 19 killed.  In N. Ireland, Sir Eldon picked up the satin shoe of a girl after a bomb killed 32 in a dance hall.)
So, it seems that terrorism has come to the US.
I'm a hawk on Iraq: the president did the right thing.
UK is the most pro American state, yet it has protests.  Why?

US rejected global warming treaties of Tokyo and Bonn which 123 others signed. 
US resisted UN efforts at the Biological weapons convention.
US resisted (with Korea and Israel) the land mine ban.  Land mines kill 5,000 children per month -- so the ban would prevent new laying.
ICC (International Criminal Court) was an American idea and a good one.  Deal with monsters and human rights violators.  The US fears unfair treatment of the US officers, but UK has experience of trying terrorists, if necessary in secret.
Steel: WTO, set up by the US, has ruled US action is illegal protectionism.
Guantanamo detainees: TV pictures, manacled captives, no charges.  NO pro US judge in the UK supports this treatment.
Evidence of Saddam trying WMD is irrefutable.
Sir Eldon saw the first victims of chemical weapons -- took 31 to London burns unit from the Iran-Iraq border area.  Britain's mission in Iran has a large crater in its garden left from a scud missile in the Iran-Iraq war. 
Evidence from satellites and humint shows some uranium has moved to Iraq -- maybe not from Niger, but from an adjacent area.
Welcomes the US decision to hand over civil powers to Iraqis (if not security, because not feasible.)
Must reduce profile of US army in Baghdad and Tikrit.  Heavy convoys are being shown around Arab TV, affronting arabs.  There is now a $5,000 bribe now to go to Iraq to kill Americans.  TV and money stimulate recruits in Karachi and elsewhere.
Experience in N. Ireland: British techniques.
In Basra, Brits are not taking casualties amid 2.5 Million population.  The hearts and minds campaign is partly responsible.  The brits recoiled into the background, removed helmets and let the Iraqis police the streets.
Tikrit is admittedly a tough area of blackguards, but the US will need to change its profile.
Internationalize security operations, despite French and German rejection of UN resolutions.  Must bring back UN personality.  Blue helmet helps France and germany to help the US on the ground.  (Amusing but not practical Internet humor to call the French "cheese eating surrender monkeys").
Turkey was not handled well.  It looked as though US was bribing them, bad for public opinion. 
Key force for security is Indian, whose potential 10 - 15,000 troops would help the US reduce its forces. 
Post WW2 European dream of P-H. Spaak: caught between the primitive barbarians (Russia) and civilized barbarians (US). 
Europe (with Marshall plan and NATO) was rebuilt and is reaching East to 80 million more people within 5 years to 400 million population, with a GDP close to the US -- and double the world trade of the US. 
But will it be a centralizing Europe?  Sir Eldon would regret it -- and UK would not be a party to that, resisting uniformity.
Decentralized EU would be better friend of US.  Generally Europe has tilted to the Atlantic in face of USSR.  Now EU is opening the frontier to the east, even to the Ukraine (like the American MidWest), Belarus, even Russia itself.  Like the Americans crossing the Mississippi.  Labor, materials are available towards the Urals (especially attractive when the US market is tough to enter) -- free of Japanese and US competition. 
British relations with US:
Brits tilt towards the Atlantic, historically towards the US, Canada and Australia -- but in future a great deal depends on what the US does.  US COG has moved west and south; US population has doubled since Sir Eldon was a boy.
Bush and Blair fit well enough together, even though politically they have different roots. 
Common interest in trade (huge) Brit investment in US $800 Billion, employing 1.2 million.  US has 1/3 of investment in UK.  Cultural connections, e.g.. PBS British shows, US movies in UK.
Problems: disagree in some respects in middle east. 
Brits against Sharon's Israeli wall, and strikes using American gunships.  It sets up American troops in Iraq for death. 
Iran: should have done better with bring Iran into system.  Now should hesitate to use force against Iranian nuclear development -- already advanced.
UK doesn't like to be taken for granted, 4th largest economy, will overtake Germany eventually as German population shrinks.  After Thatcher, UK economy surpassed France and Italy.
Political: Blair has taken tremendous risks with his own party to support the US. 
Diplomacy: 55 Commonwealth countries were mobilized to help the US in the UN. 
Defense links: antimissile screen will require an advanced radar in Scotland as well as in Alaska.  US bunker buster bombs have skirted the Treaty restrictions.  Thatcher took political risk for US raid on Libya. 
Where do US leaders take risks for the UK?
Diplomacy must ensure Blair is not seen as Bush's poodle.
Optimistic nonetheless, we can see this thing through together.
Blair and Bush are in the same boat.
Bush needs evidence by election 2004 (probably Blair, too) that Iraq is working and some troops removed.
Europe and US have no alternative to working together.

Nov. 18, 2003
Prof. Grant Hammond, Air War College, "The changing nature of international security."  Dr. Hammond holds degrees from Harvard University and the Johns Hopkins University's SAIS.  He is the author of several books, and a number of scholarly articles.
Impromptu address, based on his book manuscript, The Revolution in Security Affairs.
Post 9/11/01, the rules have changed.
US hegemony or "hyperpower" (from French term).
The top brand names in China are Coca Cola, Jeep and Head & Shoulders.
milspec has given way to COTS; 
all satellite paths are now downloadable; 
space imagery in high resolution (half meter) is available to public, not just to military; 
GPS is available. 
Therefore adversaries are more efficient.  In the past, for information like this a military attaché might have risked his life.
Viruses are now useful for warfare. 
Chemical and biological weapons have now joined nuclear weapons, but directed energy beams are becoming an issue, including lasers. 
Lasers were first developed in 1960 with a ruby laser -- but now there is planned a Boeing 747 flying laser capable of shooting down ICBMs, for a test in 2007.  This is a weapon of the future, powerful though long range is difficult to develop.  A ground based laser would destroy an incoming mobile laser.  Yet clouds and rain are difficult for lasers.  In good conditions a 5 micron beam at 12 miles can take an image of snow flakes. 
High-powered microwaves: in 1964, a pacific ocean A-bomb test stopped TV signals and cars in Hawaii, with an electromagnetic pulse 1300 miles distant.  Now a truck mounted antenna at 1 kilometer excites the water in human skin and causes burning over a 30 degree angle, resulting in troops fleeing in one second.  It is not dependent on any explosive force.
Non state actors are rising.
Both larger and smaller than states, they include 30,000 NGOs compared to 5,000 Government organizations.
Greater examples are UN, NATO, NAFTA and the EU.
Smaller examples are Greenpeace, the Red Cross, and Al Qaeda.
Information technology empowers small non state actors.
ICRL (land mines ban) was started by a NH housewife (with a SAIS degree).  It spread via the internet to over 80 countries, and obtained the signing of the ban on land mines by numerous nations.  (The Web has only existed from 1993!)
Lexus and Olive Tree thesis (from book) angry and empowered young men can talk across the globe without ever meeting as a revolutionary cell. 
Demographics phenomena:
Graying of the West, as fertility declines. Italy and Germany are now at zero population growth.  Japan is worried about its future workforce.
Globally, teenagers will preponderant by 2030, including in 20 muslim nations where 25% of the population is aged 15-24.  Teens are malleable, gullible and available for war. 
Thesis: this combination changes our world radically.

September 30, 2003
Ambassador Bruce Laingen, "Iran: Axis of Evil or Opportunity?"
“fellow hostages”  from Huntingdon faculty
Original yellow ribbon of his wife is in Library of Congress.
Shares suite of offices with WACA office
Policies need support of people to succeed.
Declining Images of America around the World:  shown in polls, especially in middle east. 
Islamabad 75% to 15%.  Favorable since September 11, 2001
Jordan  25% to 1%
Sen. Lugar on GAO report on this decline.  America is brilliant in communication- so why all thumbs in public diplomacy abroad?
Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan- & bellwether of Israel and Palestinians.
A.A.D.- including. Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz among 159 prima donnas, including Henry Kissinger.
Afghanistan was favorite post.  Minnesota (home state) there to protect Canada from Iowa.
Axis of Evil- clever speech but poor policy.
Opportunity?  Yes- to change strategic environment.  Population unhappy with regime.  Only a dozen hands raised having visited Iran- not know by Americans. 
No embassy or intell. Presence for 25 years.  Longer than after [1917] Russian Revolution or [1949] Communist Revolution in China.
Young people- 70% under 30, but old country, culturally rich, intensely nationalistic,   skeptical of outsiders (Russia, Brits, US.  Historically).
Only Shia government in world
US second largest Persian speaking nation.  E.g., HC student here is Iranian-[Dane living in America].
US fleet in Persian gulf, 150K troops on western boarder of Iran.  Cannot ignore when in each others’ faces-  US and Iran should be talking despite theocracy ( not my cup of tea, saw up close as hostage).
Intense appreciation of separation of church and state.
Terrorism, nuclear weapons issue – for US
For Iran, conviction that US never accepted reality of revolution.
Failed to appreciate their role of neutrality in Gulf War
Economic Sanctions.
Churchill: not war war, but jaw, jaw.
Served in Iran twice- once suddenly after US and Britain coup vs. Mossadegh, 1953
Effects shipped back from Japan months later.
Second time diverted from Afghanistan to Iran.
Folly to topple current regime.  Has no recognizable leader to replace, not that strong.  But can contribute to change structure of government- gives senior clerics ultimate decision on foreign policy- now out of line with its history.
Much youthful unemployment of graduates- major brain drain so many reformers leave  180,000?
Hard liners, conservatives can keep students from power, but growing NGO presence, working quickly for change
4,000 Yahoo chat groups in Teheran alone
Nuclear nonproliferation one of most important task of US foreign policy Iran -- can be held with feet to fire with AEA.
Foreign Min. same as in 1979 during the takeover of US embassy
- fell from power soon but has returned.  Says has nothing to hide and will be transparent.
Butt AEA has recently discovered nuclear material
Why not emulate South Africa?  But Iran faced with  nuclear weapons in Russia, Israel, potentially Iraq.
Objectives to prevent Iran breaking up
Khalazi (Foreign sec) democratic government.
 -  many commonalities between US and Iran
Ayatollah Montazeri under house arrest 25 years- calling for dialogue with US.
Khoumeini's grandson now serious about dialogue with US.  Much of government also ready.
US serious about WMD and Iran’s intentions.
Lee Hamilton : “ pragmatism most preferred over ideology.”
No trade with Iran today because of US Sanctions    7m pop- substantial market.
Perot did turn to use of force (to extract jailed executives) - I salute him, but jails fell apart at time- relatively easy.  ½ way around the world, secrecy, uncharted route.
Carter tried force April 1980- planning assumption was 10-15 dead hostages would have been seen as success .  April 26 annually I place a wreath on monument to dead.  (Explained complex plan) on face of it, mission impossible. 
I did not sense at that time that rescue mission was necessary, not in dire straits. 
Arab Israeli peace, next step?  Condi Rice has that assignment at present.
 No policy can succeed without president.
Diplomacy is  3 legged stool- traditional diplomacy, intelligence, force.
Iranian & Iraqi arms sales dealings (to both sides) under Reagan did leave long term distrust

Globalization cannot be avoided.

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