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Notes, 2000-01 and 2001-02

These notes by Jeremy Lewis do not represent the views of AWAC, its Board, or other members.

Bret Stephens, key points of speech to AWAC, YouTube, 3'

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revised 22 May '02 by Jeremy Lewis

2001-2002 Notes: AWC Briefing | Robert Hunter | Christopher Meyer | Andy Mack | Larry Korb |

2000 Notes: AWC Briefing

Air War College panel briefing, 14 May 2002, "Global Hot spots".
India & Pakistan by Amit Gupta, Visiting Professor.

Arab and Israel by Christopher Hemmer, Assoc. Prof. of  International Security.

Russia by Mary Hampton, Assoc. Prof. Political Science, University of Utah.

Stephen Fought, moderator
Great power approach, or contending theories -- AWC takes regional studies approach., has worked out well since end of cold war.

Christopher Hammer middle east
Ex Colgate & Cornell, psych & Arab-Israeli conflict.
War on terror in Jordan -- 2nd closest to US in region, intelligence valued by US in saving US lives. but Jordan works quietly, between Iraq & a hard place.  Jordan surrounded by more powerful states and dependent on Iraqi oil, chain of Iraqi oil tankers on road.  60% of pop is palestinian not Jordanian.  Govt. pro US but not pop
Israelis used to terror, and suffered multiple WTC attacks in proportion to pop.  Israelis have little strategy v terror -- going in to destroy what they can, and return in 5 years to do the same.  Tactics overwhelm strategy.  Since Oslo 183, leadership on both sides has failed to  lead pop into acceptance of reality.  Complete mixture now of settlements, West bank checkpoints humiliating for palestinians.  Arafat has not prepared people for acceptance of any deal. -- need to accept partial solution.  PA is corrupt.  Now both sides in crisis management, no long term thinking.  US intervention not the answer -- sides would just blame the US instead of developing peace agreement.  Now in death spiral -- but violence is not yet so costly as to drive them to peace..
Mary Hampton, Kosovo
Europe security specialist, and esp changes in russia.  BUsh administration saw Russia as marginal player -- and is still a work in progress  and Rns viewed this with resentment -- coupled with domestic problems for Putin, still trying to consolidate his position.  Rn mil esp offended but since September 11 watershed, détente III: Putin had pushed anti-terrorism before this because of Chechnya problem.  Large Muslim pops and insurgencies in "Near abroad".  Russia nato council now, acknowledges shared interests with Russia, Russian intelligence useful in afghan, and central asia.  Putin has consolidated power, 3 years of growth, can now pay the military, can collect taxes, attacking mafia leaders.  Positive story.  Russian military would not meet with AWC group, though, because of resentment.  Putin uses undemocratic methods, so question whether democracy will last five years, after Putin.  Last year Russians brought up China all the time, but now ignores China , western centric foreign policy and lacks strategy for  Asia.  Oil  mostly in Siberia and far east, where increased Chinese immigration, will be problem in future and Russia now dependent  on oil, largest supplier to Germany.

Gupta, India.  800K troops massed on India Pakistan border, and both nuclear armed.  India will be IT giant.  GLobalization not all good, trade doesn't make nations more democratic, do not share same values.  India does respect democracy and rules of international system.  Islamic insurgency in Kashmir, plus high altitude battlefield in north Kashmir.  .   RUnway at 11000' feeds troops at 20000' at cost of $1M per day.  Indirect artillery duels; and 90% of casualties are from avalanches.   Insurgents attacked Indian parliament, died but provoked India into sending entire army into the border.  Both sides have nuclear delivery systems, missiles, bombers, India two subs.  Both have good record of not transferring weapons to others, esp India.  Risk of terrorism  lower than other places, because both sides separate bombs from launchers.  They use movement as diplomatic signal.  In summer snow melts and troops can move vs terrorists, but hostilities not likely till Sept. because of extreme heat in desert.
Question Time:
Hemmer: US welcomed in Afghan but Israel not welcomed in west bank by any Palestinian group.  Syrian threat is of sponsoring terrorism but not capable of attacking directly; northern Golan heights is still a flash point.  Danger is that Syrians have only huge chemical weapons program to strike back at Israel -- Conventional forces not strong.
Gupta -- Indians still have problem with unions, foreign competition, standard car still 1954 Morris Oxford, a monopoly.  About 40M Indians live like n fr

6M Indians live like France, mass still poor.
Hemmer: failure of leadership on Israeli side, few Israelis support settlements -- but in 120 seat Knesset, 30 parties and current PM only has a few seats.  For settlement, PM must uproot settlements but will destroy any governing party.

Hampton -- US needed Russians intelligence recently, has changed relations.

Putin westernizer, spent career in KGB in Germany w/ perfect language, oil dependency growing of Germany on Russia, Putin from st. Petersburg (western).  Will russians join EU?   Russians not sure and EU against.  80K pages of requirements and Russia far behind on democracy, markets, civil military relations.
Membership in EU is Combination of issues and interests.  Fissures in US, EU relations as always, but will constrain US leadership in war on terror.
Duma increasingly pro nationalist and pro communists.
Indian has electoral fraud and economic backwardness; problems in Kashmir.  In Islamic insurgent countries, governments have left no avenue of disagreement except in Mosques.

Amb. Robert Hunter, "American Foreign Policy: What Next?"
Tues. 16 April, 2002.
Currently Senior Advisor to RAND corporation; US ambassador to NATO, 1993-98, architect of new NATO and Partnership for Peace, formerly VP at Center for Strategic and International Studies; Senior foreign policy adviser to Gov. Clinton, VP Mondale, Sen. E. Kennedy, Rep. Gephardt; has over 700 publications.

AWac  4/16/02 Amb. Robert Hunter
Former ambassador to NATO

Alistair Buchan pointed to dates 1776 & 1941 as American character -- but September 11 equal in imp.
62 nationalities in 9/11 -- Brits lost more than all in Irish terrorism.
Saw quality of American troops in Bosnia.
1991 coalition of 41 countries, mostly not needed militarily but for political reasons, to give lie to Saddam's propaganda.
It was necessary to send a message to terrorists that they & supporters would pay a price.
Reestablished credibility of US -- others have got it wrong in Japan, Korea & Iraq.
Cold War end was most colossal strategic retreat in history, by USSR.
US incipient power mil political, economic & cult.  US mil outspends all, incl. allies -- US increase this year exceeds entire Brit mil budget.
More imp than collapse of Rome.
Few threats to homeland, no attention span in US after cold war.
US contain, confound communism & lead global economic -- total focus of cold war.  Now paradigm gap! What will replace this in US foreign political..
Most rapid engagement of country in international trade in history except Meiji Japan.
Nap said do anything with bayonet except sit on it.
Use mil power in interests & values, incl. Gulf War -- but even there Senate reluctant.  Kosovo had no strategic value except protecting rep of NATO -- but dominant consideration was limiting casualties -- and there none killed in action.
NATO ratifies US as Europe power..
unprecedented alliance.
Abolishes war between major powers for first time.
Merging E Europe into west, bringing them back into
Now when there is knock in in night, it is just that the house is burning down.
Partnership for peace soon to be succeeded by council of 20.
NATO force confronting Russia was turned 120 degrees to face Balkans.
Will NATO get involve in Russia today or in weapons of mass destruction?
Homeland security needs to avoid destroying civil liberties -- goal of asymmetrical warfare.  Psych effect stupendous - more than actual deaths on 9/11.
Axis of Evil term emphasizes WMD, in short term Iraq.  In 1991 if Iraq had WMD, we would have paid a higher price.
Need new international financial institution.
War on terror was to exclude IRA and ETA.
Initial response was to avid war by committee --  but now administration realizes needs allies.   Even after win, become responsible fr defeated pop e.g. in Afghan.  Europe allies se it differently -- sees enemies having middle eastern pop support.
Bush 43 has been talking (e.g. in Monterey, Mexico) of alliances and need to earn support in middle east.
Moral interest n Israel.  Colin Powell trying to return to US broader interests from Israeli peace agreement -- but but any negotiated setttlement will involve US peace keepers.
Need strategic partnership with EU, because have resources.
Enough is enough -- need project for 20 years as in Europe post WW2.  Need us public opinion behind it.

Question Time:

Adlai: my job to talk & yours to listen.  If you finish before me, free to leave.

Camp David II was too late.
US is only potential leader capable of underwriting peace agreements.
Clinton was too late in starting, BUsh also.  Too many staff & presidential papers are removed upon changeover -- e.g. in 1981, Iran hostage papers were sent to Atlanta.
Agreement in Egypt 2001 contains the obvious peace plan but not picked up by Bush.
Right of return f refugees more imp to Israelis than is Jerusalem, common with Palestinians.
Barak never actually extended offers -- and too much was lost between changeovers n US and Israeli regimes.
Saddam has little to do with Al Qaeda.
His WMD are more significant because dominate the Gulf.
Why end to Gulf war? 1- highway of death. 2- commanders said nothing more militarily to do.  3- allowed Saddam to slaughter Kurds to protect Turkey.
Have missed opportunities to deal with Iran when Hajemi offers we raise the bar before dealing.  Better to deal & build relationship to prevent Iraq getting WMD.
Still need halt to Arab Israeli fighting.
Need comprehensive non proliferation regime from soup to nuts.  Nunn Lugar bill of Rn nonprofit program has been cut back .  Destruction of Iraqi reactor in 1981 as good.  Little chance f Palestinians getting Bomb is low but states can.  Only case of transferring nuke Russia -China

Sir Chris Meyer, on the changing nature of diplomacy,
March 5, 2002
At Bologna with Nathan
Seventeenth century : 1604 in Germany, Sir Henry Wooten: "an ambassador is an honest man sent to lie abroad for the good of his country."  James I then fired Sir Henry, whose mistress was James's daughter, Queen of Bohemia.

Diplomacy has changed in 3 ways.
Blurred line between foreign and domestic policy.
Politics & economics blurred.
Foreign policy (what is done) and diplomacy (how done) have been dragged into limelight.
Contrast with subtle signals of old.  Metternich: on death of Russian ambassador, "what did he mean by that?"
Now age of CNN, ambassador discuss minor policy matters publicly.
440 staff in DC embassy and only few from diplomatic service -- experts on many types of policy.
New diplomacy requires new flavor in Wash.
Job: Pundit, saloon keeper, lobbyist
14,000 guests in embassy per year.
Atlee: visited US 1946, reported Democrats like Rubs were like Cons party.
With Al Capone: don't get the idea I'm knocking the American system.
Pursuing British national interest is different when in US -- 9/10 times working for common goals with US.
"War on Terror has made intimacy of relationship more intense than at any time in my career."
Thesis: Britain has been in permanent revolution since 1979 Thatcher, transformed country for better, bipartisan now under Blair.  Reversed decades of economic decline.  Deregulation, privatization, flexible labor market, conversion of Bank of England into Federal Reserve with independent rights of interest rates setting; devolution to Scottish & Welsh, and (god willing) Northern Ireland.
Tourism $4 bn to see castles etc.
New cutting edge though -- modernization is watchword, e.g. fiber optics, info tech second only to US, also bio science sector.
Huge British economic success: lowest inflation and unemployment for a generation, long term interest rates, growth greatest in G7.
American investor: US business surging vote of confidence more than Asia or in major continentals, almost as much as in Latin Am.
British investment to AL $2.5 Bn; to US, largest.
Difficult & contentious relationship with continent under Conservatives but improved under Labour.
(Ethnic Joke: Brit poll: vision of heaven & hell.
Mark Twain: a German joke is no laughing matter.)
Does European link weaken special relationship?  Absolutely not!
Gen. De Gaulle offered choice of Europe or America.  But there is not a choice -- more we lead in Europe, better allied partner to USA, & vice versa.
Is cornerstone of Brit foreign policy today.
New Labour: old virtues of free trade, NATO, stand firm for liberty, democracy, values of US.
Blair spoke a few days later, "we are with you from the beginning and will stay with you till end" true come hell or high water.
18th Century -- 1775 Edmund Burke sympathetic to US colonists, "strong as iron, light as air" ties across Atlantic.

Question Time:

US may impose 30% tariff on Brit steel -- UK deeply unhappy.
Europe currency: support in principle, burt not yet convinced.  5 economics tests before adoption, working through them now.  Polling shows most Brits skeptical center at present, w/15% on each side..  2-3 years before Referendum.
Nation building: British army skills of operating in civilian area have proven valuable in Bosnia & Afghan.
Afghan -- agreed must build Afghan army but must find means, while Kabul foreign force must send units out to countryside to some degree.
US is learning to stay in Balkans for nation building regardless of US short term culture.
Fight & exit without civilian reconstruction is not that neat -- life obliges change of attitude.
Fox hunting banned in Scot, but free vote in HoC and may be delayed in Lords.
British v European support for US.?Doctrine of mutually assured schizophrenia.  When US leads, European complains -- but also when US doesn't lead.  US tells European to get act together, give one phone No. for crisis -- then when create one European platoon, complains of lack of consultation.
US as only superpower, must lead, & accept others complaints -- like UK in 19th Century -- but not too significant.  French & German Special Forces are in Afghan.
Flexible labor market? Thatcher whacked Trade Unions >> flexible labor mkt.  Significant loss of members of Trade Unions.  US business investors approve.
Brit established embassy in Iran, critical engagement w/ Iran, supporting moderate forces.    US did not pursue same policy.  But in 2002 Brit policy under threat -- Iranians rejected new ambassador.  Policy rebuffed.
Axis of Evil? Nexus of terrorists , states harboring, & weapons of mass destruction -- huge challenge.  (prefers not "axis" term.)
Bush: N. Korea, Iran & Iraq.
Different policies toward Iraq (imp) Iran & N. Korea -- Brit does not treat as axis.
royal family in robust health & will survive for ever.
European good at working together against terror cells.  Years of open door policy allowed cells to grow.  Single arrest warrant gets over problems of extradition.  e.g. warrant in Italy , arrest in britain.
Missile defense causes less anxiety than in Clinton's 2nd administration, increased under Bush that it would destroy panoply of arms control, wedge between European and US.  But Bush consultations close including w/ Rns and lesser issue.  Bush-Putin diplomacy has defused issue, calmed europeans.
May 2002 St. Petersburg summit, given difficult tech and long development time, may settle issue for long term .
N. Ireland -- Clinton & Mitchell moved peace process along; Bush appointed ambassador rich Haas to continue.  Outsiders incl. Brit govt. can only do so much, but in better situation than ever.
[Standing ovation.]

Prof. Andy Mack, Speech on Countering Islamic Terrorism, 9 Oct. 2001.

Thanks to a record large group of Public & World Affairs Club students (at least 11) who attended the World Affairs Council tonight;  I am confident everyone found it valuable.

Prof. Andy Mack, now visiting at Harvard following several years as a deputy to Kofi Annan, the United Nations Secretary General, and a long standing academic expert on security issues, argued for a two pronged policy against terrorism.

Of course, he argued, the US must remove the current leadership of the Al Qaeda organization.  But it must also prevent the base from renewing its leadership, by removing the conditions of poverty and oppressive governments that breed young radical followers, antagonism to the US and would-be martyrs.  Economic development seems to lead to political development and eventually the authoritarian regimes become less repressive, taking away much of the stimulus to terrorism.

The US has a very low and declining rate of donating foreign aid, yet this is less expensive than coping with the outbreaks of terrorism or (much worse) genocide and civil strife around the world.  The nation state is still the primary actor in world affairs, and places limits on the United Nations.  [So much for Sam Huntington's thesis that the clash of civilizations is replacing the clash of nation states.]

Nonetheless, the US should pay its UN dues, and the UN perhaps needs a Rapid Reaction Force able to prevent disturbances escalating until fuller forces can be raised (typically with a three month lag, and subject always to national calculations of self interest.)

Prof. Mack illustrated his points with many examples from his multiple careers around the world, including Rwanda, Srbrenicia, East Timor and Iraq.  His previous careers have included RAF pilot, Antarctic base administrator, visiting professor at various universities, and author of books and articles.
-- Jeremy L.

Air War College panel briefing, 2 May 2000
John Albert Ph.D. history Oxford, not Yugoslav specialist. but 4 years NATO.
Aviano being expanded w/ NATO $ as control base for Balkans. Perhaps other failed states to come.
Ethnic hatred thesis is not cause of violence -- only when permitted by governments.
De-mining still going on by hand.
Based in Split. Top officer left Fed forces in fear for lives -- did not have to make difficult choice of patria.

Matt Rowe, German specialist, taught at Luther College.
Slovakia & Poland trip.
Poland most important in E. Europe for NATO owing to size & democracy support. Has ex-communist leader now.  Country still below potential but recovering.
Slovakia needed tractors to pull fighters because poor. Still vendettas of thuggish leader to critical MPs & journalists. Albright: critical of Slovakia sliding away from NATO.
New reform PM now elected.

Buck Grinter (Asia)
Japan most imp after UK : essential store for material for defense of Asia.  But changing US interest -- 10 years of economic & political stagnation, no breakthrough in sight, serious if not critical.
S. Korea in 40 years has gone from $800 to $14000 pc income -- but still subject to artillery barrage.
Kim Dae Jung now engaging w/ N.
But Taiwan has to work with corrupt regime & engage with China in endless talks.

Question Time:

Croatia assisted by contractors to beat Serbs but since war has had little aid from EU,  & CSCE has 54 countries cannot decide -- makes NATO look efficient!

Slovenia wants NATO but lacks force. Is land bridge between Italy & Hungary -- but cant be admitted with out Romania.

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