Bullock . Charles S. Bullock III, "Introduction: Southern Politics in the Twenty-First Century"
Part 1: The Deep South States
1. "South Carolina: The New Politics of the Palmetto State"
2. "Georgia: A Study of Party and Race"
3. "Alabama: From One Party to Competition, and Maybe Back Again"
4. "Mississippi: Emergence of a Modern Two-Party State"
5. "Louisiana: African Americans, Republicans, and Party Competition"
Part 2: The Rim South States
6. "Virginia: From Red to Blue?"
7. 2014 edition: North Carolina: The Shifting Sands of Tar Heel Politics
8. "Tennessee: Once a Bluish State, Now a Reddish One"
9. "Arkansas: Deep Blue and Bright Red at the Same Time?"
10. "Oklahoma: Red State Rising"
11. "Florida: Political Change, 1950-2008"
12. "Texas: The Lone Star (Wars) State"
13. "Conclusion: The Soul of the South: Religion and Southern Politics in the New Millennium"
White: 66.2%Electoral Votes: 8
o The foundation of South Carolina’s politics was the concern of race and the maintenance of white supremacy, focused on class-based populist politics.o 1950s-1960s
o Daniel Elazar’s traditionalist political culture: paternalism, elitism, social hierarchy, limited role of government, and conservativism.
o Marked by one-party politics, low voter turnout, a large percentage of disenfranchised African-Americans, white political leaders using race for their benefit, and malapportioned state legislature from the early twentieth century to post-WWII.
o “increased urbanization and industrialization, economic development, pressures of the civil rights movement, and a more heterogeneous population; on the part of politicians decline in racist rhetoric, enlarged (and eventually) integrated electorate, and reduction of political influence in rural areas”Electoral Patterns 1960-2004
o SC paralleled the rest of the US in this time (post-WWII to the 1960s), as a solid one-party Democratic state, it became more competitive with the Republican party by the 1960s
o In 1948 the state supported native son, Strom Thurmand, on the Dixiecrat ticket, in the US Presidential election
o The Democratic Party, although it won the next three elections, never won decisively as it had in the first half of the twentieth century.
o In 1964, Thurmand switched from the Democratic party to the Republican party, and endorsed Barry Goldwater for the Presidency.Party Organizational Development (1960-2004)
o In November, 59% of the states’ votes were for Goldwater, this was the first time in modern history that the Republicans received Deep South electoral votes
o Goldwater’s, who had opposed the 1964 Civil Rights Act, votes in the South were comprised mostly of blue collar rural whites, who wanted to defend the Jim Crow system of racial segregation.
o Goldwater did not win the Presidency, but the Democratic party punished the Democrats who had supported his candicacy, including Second District Congressman Albert Watson, who was stripped of his seniority by House Democrats, resigned, and switched parties.
o He won his seat back in a special election in 1965, becoming the first Republican elected to congress since Reconstruction.
o In 1966, Joseph Rogers, the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in decades, carried three counties, and received 42% of the vote. His respectable showing was accompanied by Republican victories in contest for 16 seats out of 124 in the lower house of the state legislature.
o Over the next 15 years, the Republican party consistently won one and sometimes two of SC’s six seats in the US House of Representatives, in addition to Thurmand’s seat in the US Senate.
o In 1974, due largely to internal conflict amongst the Democratic Party, the Republicans won a close gubernatorial victory. At the Presidential level, Republicans only lost one election between 1964 and 1980, to fellow Southerner, Jimmy Carter in 1976.
o In 1980, SC voted for Ronald Regan, which began the shift toward two-party competition in the state.
o During the final two decades of the twentieth century, the Republican Party won every election in the state, three of the five gubernatorial elections, continued to split the states’ two senate seats, and won half or more of the states’ seats in the House of Representatives in eight of eleven elections.
o In the 1994 Congressional elections, Republicans in SC gained 2/3 of the House seats, and have not lost that majority since.
o 1994 was also significant at the state level, as Republicans gained a majority in the lower chamber for the first time in the century.
o The 1998 elections were a bit of an anomaly, Democratic candidate, Jim Hodges, whose platform included the creation of a state lottery that would provide money for educational improvements, received the votes of 20% of self-professed Republicans who were also unhappy with the incumbent, Governor David Beasley when he changed his stance and opposed the Confederate flag’s placement at the top of the state house.
o In 2000, most considered, due to the strength and consistency of Republican support in Presidential elections, it a lock to vote for George W. Bush.
o Bush carried the state with just under 57% of the vote, improving on his father’s 48% in 1992, and Dole’s 50% in 1990.
o For the eighth time out of the last nine Presidential elections, and for the sixth consecutive time the Republicans took the state’s eight electoral votes, confirming the Republican hold on SC’s Presidential vote.
o In 2002, Democrats were optimistic that on momentum of 1998’s state elections, the party would have resurgence.
o The Republicans nominated former congressman Mark Sanford to oppose Hodges for governor.
o Republican Lindsay Graham won the Republican nomination for Thurmand’s recently vacated senate seat. He ran against former SC Supreme Court Justice and college president, Alex Sanders.
o Republicans clinched victories in both races in addition to relegating Democrats to only two positions in state-wide office. Furthermore, Republicans won 4 of the 6 congressional races:
o Maintained control of both chambers of the state legislature.
o Their victories were due to strong showings in the three vote rich urban corridors, centered around Greenville-Spartanburg in the north, Columbia’s suburbs in the midlands, and Charleston in the coastal low country.
o Today the upstate urban corridor contains about 28% of voters. The midlands contain about 24% and the coastal and Pee Dee urban areas have another 25%, leaving approximately 23% scattered among the remaining rural counties. Only the rural areas, with half the number of counties and about 1/4th of the population, are predominately Democratic. This pattern has not changed substantially since the 1970’s.
o In 2004, long-term US Democratic senator, Ernest F. Hollings, retired his seat. To replace him, Democrats nominated Inez Tenenbaum, the state superintendent of education. Republicans nominated congressman, Jim DeMint. The race was highly contentious, and vast sums of money were expended by both candidates.
o The expectations were that Republicans would win the Presidential election, that they would maintain their control of US House delegation, and that they would retain control of the state legislature. The Senate race remained the Democrats’ only hope. As expected, Bush carried the state with 58% of the vote, Republicans retained their 4 to 2 margin in congressional seats, and they retained majorities in both houses of the state legislature.
o “The stunning blow to the Democrats came to Tenenbaum’s loss to DeMint in the Senate race, not only did she lose, she lost by a 54% to a 44% margin.”
o The three urban corridors propelled Republicans to victory again.
o Exit polls revealed that Bush led Kerry among most of the standard demographic and socioeconomic groups in the state: men and women, all age groups, all income categories above $30,000 per year, Protestants and Catholics, and so on. The only exceptions were Kerry’s success among low-income groups and African-Americans.
o “The racial divide that has characterized SC voting since the late 1960s, again was the most prominent dividing line within the electorate; Bush received 78% of the white vote in the state, while Kerry received 85% of the black vote.”
o Prior to the 1960s, there were so few Republicans in SC that there was nothing to organize and consequently, the Democrats had no need to organize either.The Elections of 2006
o Between 1962 and 1965, Republican state chair, J. Drake Edens Jr., built the state’s first genuine party organization.
o “By 1966, the Republicans had established a well structured, multi-divisional headquarters with a cadre of full-time salaried administrators.”
o While the Republican party developed a complex and efficient system of party organization in SC, the Democrats, fraught with internal struggles and conflicting national and local images tied to civil rights, stagnated in organizational development.
o By the 1980s, Democrats began to adjust to new national party rules and the presence of African-Americans in the state party. “The South Carolina Democratic Party began to concentrate more of its organizational effort on meeting the growing Republican threat, particularly as Republican success in Presidential elections began to trickle down to state and local elections.”
o At the beginning of the new century, South Carolina had developed a highly competitive two-party system.
o In 2006, the gubernatorial election was the most watched race. Incumbent governor, Mark Sanford, along with Louisiana governor Kathleen Blanco, and Ohio governor, Bob Taft, had been named as one of the three worst governors in America by Time Magazine. Despite this, Sanford won the nomination of his party with 65% of the vote.The Elections of 2008
o To face Sanford, the Democrats nominated state senator Tommy Moore, who promoted himself as a moderate with significant experience in state government.
o Sanford raised extensive campaign funds—about $8 million—compared to Moore’s approximate $3 million.
o Sanford won 55% of the general election vote.
o Additionally, Republican incumbent lieutenant governor, Andre Bauer, narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Robert Barber with just over 50% of the vote.
o State Treasurer, Grady Patterson, a veteran incumbent Democrat, was defeated by Thomas Ravenel. Ravenel, a real estate developer from Charleston, received 52% of the vote and was considered a rising star among statewide Republican candidates until involvement in drug-law violations in 2007 ultimately led to his removal from office and a federal prison sentence.
o “Defeats not withstanding and with ample room to be more successful, Democrats continued to be well organized and to anticipate two-party competition in the 2008 state-wide elections, as well as the congressional and state legislative.”
o The presidential election was the focus in 2008.The Primary Campaign of 2012, further analysis by Barnwell, Farnell and Sheridan
o Primaries began early in 2007.
o Arizona Republican Senator John McCain won the endorsement of Senator Lindsey Graham, who along with now Governor Mark Sanford had led McCain’s 2000 primary campaign in South Carolina, which had been a particularly hard fought and bitter loss to George W. Bush.
o Mitt Romney gained the support of Senator Jim DeMint.
o Mike Huckabee courted South Carolina Evangelicals, and made a direct appeal to them and ordinary South Carolinians.
o McCain consistently seemed to be the front runner, but won with a disappointing 33% plurality.
o Huckabee received 30% of the vote.
o Fred Thompson and Romney each received 15%.
o New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani received 2%.
o Ron Paul received 4%.
o On the Democratic side, the race was between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, while John Edwards, himself born in South Carolina, fell to gain attraction.
o Propelled by African American support, Obama won 55% of the vote.
o Clinton received 27% and Edwards 18%.
o 54% of Democratic primary voters were black.
o Both winners were eventually nominated by their national party for president.
o In the general election, McCain received 54% to Obama’s 45%.
o In the 2012 Republican primary, Gingrich led amongst voters who identified themselves as “Born Again” or “Evangelical”—a group which, according to CNN exit polls, comprised 2/3 of the Republican electorate.
o Romney led amongst the 1/3 of voters in the state who did not identify as “Evangelical” or “Born Again”
o The support of religious conservatives propelled Gingrich to a decisive plurality—garnering 40% of the vote. Romney, who led most polls prior to the final week before the primary, received only 28% of the vote. The other two candidates, Santorum and Paul, received 17% and 13% respectively.
o Gingrich’s victory was due, at least in part, to strong debate showings in the Palmetto State.
o The debates showed Romney assuming a largely defensive position in hopes of winning on the momentum of his recent win in New Hampshire without making any major attacks.
o The momentum, however, was not enough for Romney, and Gingrich’s boisterous debate performances saved his candidacy.
o Gingrich has assumed this same defensive position in debates in Florida—the contest following the South Carolina primary—which has, according to the most recent polls, contributed to the evaporation of Gingrich’s once double-digit lead in the state.
o Gingrich’s hope for the nomination will certainly not be lost if he loses in Florida. The former history professor from Georgia will most certainly note South Carolina’s bellwether status in Republican politics—since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina Republican primary has also consistently gone on to win the party’s nomination.
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Part 2: The Rim South States
Political patterns in NC are fascinating, but confusing.
More two-party competition out of the entire southPast 3 Presidential elections illustrate the level of competition
2008 democratic success, held state office dominance
2010, 2012 republican surge
2004 Bush won 56%Republican success began in the 1960’s
gained control of both US Senate seats
democrats still retained control of state offices
2008 Obama won the state
democrats held 8 of 13 congressional seats
Democrats also picked up the gubernatorial election
Dems also maintained their dominance of both houses of state legislature
mimicked Virginia’s 2008 dem resurgence, could be merely a good year for democrats and not a change in party dominance
2010 election results shattered the dreams of the democrats
Romney captured the state
GOP picked up 9 of the 13 house seats
McCrory (GOP) picked up the gubernatorial victory
First time in modern state politics that the GOP held control of both executive and legislative branches
50 Years ago there was democratic dominance just like every other southern state before WWII (Key)
60’s JFK won the state
congressional elections went to the dems holding 11 of 12 house seats, and both senate seats
GOP has only lost two Presidential elections since 1968 in 76 (Carter) and 2008 (Obama)Coalitions and cleavages
It was not until 1994 that the GOP were able to capture and majority of the seats in one house of the state legislature
Won 3 out of 5 gubernatorial elections in the 70’s and 80’s, but lost 5 straight times beginning in 1992
Nixon marked the real beginning to two party competition
Reagan was a key victory for the GOP and strengthened the GOP’s resurgence for congressional delegation and state legislature
- 1994 GOP picked up a majority in congressional delegation as well as the majority party in the lower house of the state legislature.
2010 first time in history that the GOP controlled the entire state government
Bullocks states that much of the change that has taken place would not have had there not been outside influence from the rest of the nation
despite the past three presidential elections having GOP margins, NC will soon be a battleground state
Political realignment due to the ideological changes in the parties
GOP movement was fostered by the election of Senator Helms in 1972, painted his opponents as liberal and out of touch with NC values
Any democrat accused of being liberal received a very low ACU rating
1992, the parties truly began “diverging” ideologically
NC electorate is now comprised by one-fourth black votersConclusion:
Religion is the second largest faction with the largest group being protestant
obviously affects social issues, causes cleavages among the religious groups
socioeconomic cleavages are not that strong
Gender is a significant factor
Age is becoming a major factor
NC has been a two-party competitive state since the 1990’s and early 2000’s
Democrats tended to win state elections while GOP tended to win congressional elections
rapid growth of urban areas is leading is spearheading political change
if you look at 2010 and 2012, NC is a solidly republican state
This is changing, though. Democrats are catching up
Some feel as though the democrats have been in power for too long
There has been an increase in partisan polarization
The parties are divided and it looks like it will stay that way
Low minority populationGuinn v. United States
Native American 7.7%
Electorate is over 90% nonHispanic whites in 2000
Jim Crow laws prevalent
SC ruled in favor of upholding the grandfather clause of the Enforcement Acts of 1870
Oklahoma was not considered subject to the Voting Right Act of 1965Political Geography
Amendments made in 1975 brought Oklahoma under the requirements
Beginning in 1988, a majority of the black population have reported voting in presidential elections (with the exception of 2000)
Black office holding in the state has had a steady increase since 1969 with a surge in 1971 and again in 1984
Reached its peak in 1993 with 123 holding office
In 2003, state had most Native American congressional delegates with 2 of the states 5 Representatives
70% of states population lies in the urban corridor which runs from the northeastern corner to the southwestern corner of the stateParty Development
Includes Tulsa, Oklahoma City, and Lawton
North of the corridor is predominantly Republican and about 10% of the state population
South is mostly Democratic and about 20% of the population
Urban/Rural split in party voting is less obvious in presidential elections favor Rep. Since 1972
But Urban cities more Republican in major statewide elections
But State as a whole voted Democratically for most state elections
In presidential elections, LBJ was only Democratic win in Oklahoma since 1952The Oklahoma Electorate
Democrats dominated state politics until 1990s with the exception of 2 Republican governors elected in 1960s and one in 1980s
1962 Henry Bellman was first ever Rep. elected governor
1980s Republican registration surged and won more seats in the state legislature
In 1994 prior to the election, Republicans had 1 Senate seat, 2 House seats, and no major state offices
Following the election, GOP held both Senate seats, 5 of the 6 U.S. House seats, and held states govenorship
While the state is heavily Democratic by registration (above 50% in 2008), it is in ideology (46.1% conservative and 41% moderate in 2008) and by votes castConclusion
The Oklahoma electorate is whiter, poorer, less educated, more conservative, and more religious than the rest of the US
Average voter makes about $57,000
Potential electorate is made up largely of people with less than a college education
57.9% of electorate say they attend church at least once a week (28% of that says they attend more than once a week)
Democrats in the state are continue to struggle to find an issue to hold on to to make the party politics competitive, but so far have failed
The state has become a red state nationally and is becoming redder and redder going down the ticket
Party Politics : Race
One cannot speak of contemporary partisanship in Texas without including the politics of race.Race
Race is one of the key elements for Republican identification in TX.
1964- Civil Rights Act: LBJ signs and draws the correct conclusion: the Democratic Party’s electoral stronghold of the South would reach its end.
1965: Voting Rights Act
1975: Texas included in jurisdiction of VRA
Democratic Party shows overwhelming interest and is associated with representing African Americans and other minorities. It seems the natural alternative for those wishing to uphold “conservative and Texas values’ would be to align with the Republican Party.
Democrats are left feeling like George Strait, as all their exes live in Texas… and are proud Republicans.
Texas is a former state of the Confederacy. Historically blacks and Mexican Americans were shout out of politics.Race (2)
Increased African American and Mexican American political influence in the past 30 years. Two factors: population patterns and VRA impact.
African American population stands at about 11.3%, with most living around major urban centers, thus political power during times of election can be felt.
Mexican American population also on steady incline. 35% of state’s population. Largest minority group in the state.
Growth of population in both groups illustrates the effectiveness of the VRA- registered thousands of eligible minority citizens.
Legal challenges, through evoking the VRA ,creates hundreds of electoral districts, thus enhancing minority voting power.
In 1970, there were 29 African Americans serving in in elected offices. By 1993, blacks held 472 offices.Party Politics: Ideology
In 1974, Latinos held 540 elected offices. Fast forward to 1994, 2,215 Latinos held offices.
Electoral success found primarily at the local levels, directly impacting the population, and training officials for higher offices.
Anglos identify with Republicans, on the other hand, African Americans (90%) and Hispanics associate with Democrats. Although in 2000, George W. Bush garnered 1/3 of the Hispanic vote.
The GOP emphasis on immigration alienated Latino groups.
Party Politics: Ideology
The more things change, the more they stay the same, especially in the state of Texas.
1972- liberal George McGovern (Democratic Party’s presidential candidate) leaves many feeling the Dem party is under the control of liberals.
-White conservative Texans flock to the GOP.
Ronald Reagan’s appeal grows during 1980 and 1984 presidential campaigns, due to the conservative message.
- While Reagan was in office, 58 Democratic Texas office holders jump ship, and identify themselves as Republicans.
Varied degrees of perspective in conservative Republican party (between economic and social conservatism).Electorate
Recently, Christian Coalition (opposes gay marriage & abortion) is now over the Texas GOP, thus proving the resonating message of conservatism to Texans.
Texans shift from Democratic identification to that of the Republican Party.Demographically Speaking
1964: Democratic identification 65% (8x greater than Republican, which stood at 8%).
1974: divide closing but Dems over Republicans 4:1
1978: Republican Bill Clements wins Governor race.
1984: 1/3 Texans Democrat ,28% Republican
1988: Favorite Texas son- George Bush
1990: State level- Dem. Ann Richards defeats GOP candidate Clayton Williams for Governor.
1994: more Republicans than Dems. State level: George W. Bush defeated incumbent Ann Richards to become 2nd Republican Governor since Reconstruction.
1994 is also significant in that the Republicans sweep 3 seats of the Texas Railroad Commission, which has control of oil industry and is seen by many to be the most important elected administrative agency in the U.S.
2000s: 38% Republican 26% Dem
7 election cycles since Democrats have made a dent in statewide office.
Texas, a Sun Belt state, has constant immigrants- many of which come from other Red states.2003 Redistricting Fight
¼ of Texas Republicans are not native.
Republicans look like: young, white, and reside in upscale neighborhoods and communities around major metro areas.
Democrats are older, native Texans, rural Texans, and large minority groups.
TX redistricts state and legislative seats once every ten years, after the completion of the census.The Clock is Ticking
2000 census showed Texas had gained 2 congressional seats. Size of delegation grows from 30 to 32.
“Representatives view redistricting as a question of survival rather than good government”(273).
2001, Texas legislature draws new lines, but clearly not up to snuff.
GOP controlled State Senate works diligently on redistricting tasks, but come up short.
Bills are passed in House and die in Senate. TX Senate Redistricting Committee creates bill that never takes flight from chamber to even attempt reaching the House.
Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB) produces plans of redistricting for the House and Senate.
House plan is denied preclearance as required by the VRA. 3 judge federal court adopts plan to be set in motion for 2002 elections.
Senate plan, compliments of LRB was precleared by Department of Justice, even though Mexican American Legislative Caucus & Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund challenged the plan. The plan was ultimately approved by the 3 judge federal court.
Such redistricting plans would be used through out state legislative & state Senate elections for the decade.
2002 and 2004 elections ratified the assessments of the partisan impact of the new districts: GOP remained in control of both the House and Senate (state level)
There is hope for Democrats, due to the Hispanic vote coupled with the VRA, could be the key turning point in Texas elections.Conclusion
Pretty much all demographers concur that soon half of the population of Texas will soon be minority based.
Issue of immigration is a threat to Latino empowerment, helping Democrats in their quest for dominance.
A Gallup poll from January 2009 shows those identifying as Democrat or leaning that way falls somewhere between 41 to 43.4%.
“Demography is destiny”(280).
Democrats have evoked strategies to keep in the good graces of minority voters. Whereas, Republicans have isolated Hispanics with the issue of immigration. The fence they desire to build on the border is also a fence keeping Mexican American voters on the other side of the fence.
Democrats are expected to compete within the state, with a more equal opportunity.