Spatial Theory of Parties: One Dimension.
Spatial Theory of Parties: Two Dimensions.
From the Responsible Party Model to Modern politics
Opinion Polling Notes
Purposes of the party convention
whom does the party represent?What makes a political party different from a social movement or an interest group?voters (ID, membership, actual voting)V.O. Key: the party inthe electorate,how does the party represent by campaigning?
party organization, and
in the government
Where is the party located in the federal, state and local system?
How many parties are actually competitive nationally?2 parties (Dem and Repub)Is the bottom line patronage -- or policy?
1 1/2 parties(1970s, when Dems controlled 2/3 Govs, 2/3 HR, 2/3 state legis, & presidency)2 major parties with occasional minor ("third") parties
(1990s, when Repubs largely reversed this)
2 major parties with longstanding minor ("third") parties (UK, with one substantial minor party and others with regional appeal or ideological appeal)
2 major parties with regular minor parties in between them and outside (Germany)
several parties, often forming coalitions under PR
multiple parties (Israel, 23)
Is the party system competitive?
multiple policy goals
united by common ideas
choses office seekers
provides a label in campaigns for office
seeks to play a role in governance (though not all)
Is the bottom line patronage -- or policy?
Simple Party Spectrum Theory:
My Big Brother Roger analogy:Where to put the ice cream cart on Bournemouth beachfront?7 miles of golden sandIf perfect spread of "grothols"
2 piers are spaced 1 mile apart
"zig zag" access walks down cliffs are spaced all along beachfront.
Roger places his cart first.
My product and umbrella are assumed identical
"grothols" (grotty holidaymakers) like ice cream but not walking
If Bournemouth pier attracts cluster of "grothols"
If Boscombe pier attracts separate cluster of "Euro birds" (ideology)
If I am strongly attracted to the iron age fort at Hengistbury head (east end) rather than the trendy boating and windsurfing at Sandbanks (west end.)
Duverger's Law of Political Parties:
With even distribution of voters, winner take all system, two parties tend to center:
But while applies to Bell curve -- it does not apply to polarised population, e.g. Northern Ireland.
US spectrum is narrower than European. It goes from Euro inside Left to beyond Euro Right:
Euro Marxist Left
|Euro Socialists||Euro Social Dems and Liberals.
US Northern Dems.
|Euro & US Conservatives||US Free Market Right|
|More gov't authority|
|More Govt control of economy||Fascist parties
|Less Govt control of economy|
|Social Democrats||Euro Liberal
+New Labour UK
(Hang 'em & Flog 'em)
|Greens||Less Govt authority||Anarchist
|More Govt control of economy||Fundamentalist Faith||Less Govt control of economy|
|no equivalent||no equivalent||US liberal Democrats||US moderate Democrats||US center?||US Republicans||US Republicans|
|Secular, bicoastal sophisticates?
|soccer moms, 1992||security moms, 2004?|
Does the post-civil rights period (1970-) usher in a realignment -- or a dealignment of parties?Realignment hypothesis relies on:cross-cutting issue cleavageDealignment hypothesis relies on:(affirmative action, 1970s? economy & deficit, 1992? moral values, 2004?)new voters choosing one party
minor parties as signs of issue change
3 presidential elections of change
Difficult to argue against Republican realignment of South, plus plains and mountain states.rise of split ticket voting
declining party membership
waning of issues of New Deal alignment
alienation & distrust
candidate centered campaigns
independent expenditures on TV spots.
states' organizations, interest groups, demographic groupsparties as facilitators
# unifying the party
# motivating the party ("firing up the troops")
# rewarding the party activists
# setting the platform cf manifesto
# determining nominee (formality)
# gaining popularity (to translate into votes)
# TV airtime for candidate (requires skills; superficial)
# addressing scandals, criticism
# exploit weaknesses of other party
# respond to claims or attacks by other party
# introduce rising stars (Gov. Mark Warner, D -- and Gov. Palin, R.)
# Palin's speech, 2008
# red meat for the activists
# lively personality
# dealing with scandal (visually, oral reference)
# introduction of family and politician
# support the candidate
# achievements, defend weaknesses and turn to positives
# attack the other party
# bring in the home state
# balance the ticket